Weekly rain forecasts from Aug 15

Expressing hope that the monsoon will recover in the second half of the season, the government today announced that the weather office would start issuing seven-day forecasts from August 15.

The India Meteorological Department was setting up agro-meteorological facilities to provide forecast-based farm advisories on district basis for the benefit of the farmers.

Giving this information, Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal said the monsoon rainfall deficiency, which was 15 per cent till July 28, had come down to 10 per cent by August 4, thanks to good rainfall in the past week or so in most parts of the country. "Analysis of long-term rainfall data suggests that there is a good chance of recovery in the second half of the season," he maintained.

Sibal conceded that the new eight to 10 parameter models for monsoon prediction, put into use since last year, had failed to accurately forecast the rainfall for the month of July this year.

The actual rainfall turned out to be 19 per cent below normal, though the models had predicted nearly normal rainfall.

He attributed the shortcomings in the weather prediction to inadequate observational network and data processing systems, lack of high resolution numerical weather prediction models and poor communication facilities.

Improvements in the forecast model were now in progress.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts was being provided on-line data support to develop numerical models suitable for predicting weather for the Indian region.

The science and technology ministry had approved Rs 500 crores for augmenting weather prediction capability by acquiring new equipment, Sibal said. The monsoon performance update, issued by the India Meteorological Department, revealed that the cumulative rainfall between June 1 and August 4 was normal in 24 meteorological subdivisions, and deficient in 12 subdivisions.

Last week, all subdivisions that had rainfall deficiency in the past, received significant showers. Areas like Gujarat, Saurashtra, Kutch, Konkan, Goa and Telengana had graduated from the deficient to normal rainfall category.

The overall rainfall situation had improved in the past week by 6 per cent in the north-west, 11 per cent in central India and 7 per cent in the peninsula.

The north-east experienced a 5 per cent deterioration in overall rainfall. The country as a whole witnessed a 5 per cent improvement in the rainfall situation.