It is likely that the Gandhi scion could assume leadership and lead the Congress in the general elections due in 2014.
Will 2012 be the year Rahul Gandhi will come into his own? This is the question everyone is asking as three crucial political developments are set to occur in 2012.
The first is the elections to several state assemblies, due in February. By 15 March 2012, the results of the assembly elections will be out and governments installed. The most important is of course Uttar Pradesh.
The Congress currently has 22 seats in the UP Assembly. Rahul Gandhi has been extremely active in not just the campaign, but also in seat distribution. More than any other, the UP election is his election. If after all this, the Congress is unable to significantly improve its performance in UP, questions will begin to be asked if Gandhi has it in him.
Even if the party doubles the tally of assembly seats, the Congress will get only 44 out of 403. But if its vote share goes up, as it is likely, the party will be satisfied.
With the general expectation of a hung Assembly, the Congress could well emerge as a kingmaker. Whom will it help to form the government — the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party? It would have to be the former – judging by the tenor of the speeches that have been made. Gandhi’s frontal attack has been on Mayawati. If that happens, a young team will be in place in UP for the first time in a leadership role, even if neither opts to be chief minister: Akhilesh Yadav of the SP and Rahul Gandhi. Of course, the other option for Gandhi is to opt out of the government altogether and elect to sit in the opposition. That could herald an extended period of President’s rule in the state. Indeed, the choice he makes will tell its own story.
In April, India will see the composition of the Upper House – Rajya Sabha – changing. Nearly 75 to 80 seats will fall vacant as one-third of the members will retire. At this point it is hard to predict which electoral alliance will enjoy a majority in the Rajya Sabha. One reason why Mayawati was so anxious to have the UP Assembly election in April was that her calculation was that if the BSP performed well in the Assembly election but was unable to form a government, at least her party’s current strength in the Rajya Sabha (18 MPs) would be protected and she would enjoy political leverage. That plan has, however, gone awry.
The new Rajya Sabha will set the stage for another major political development due later in 2012: The election for the President of India. Depending on how parties fare in the assembly polls and in the Rajya Sabha, this too will represent a watershed election; for it might create a vacancy in the Union council of ministers! Defence Minister AK Antony has all kinds of choices open before him; and although the Congress would not like to give him up for a seat in the Rashtrapati Bhavan, he would make a copybook president. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee could move one building away on the Hill as well. An election for the President seems inevitable at this point. An opposition that sees itself in resurgence would like to make a political point even if it is not certain of winning the election.
Will 2012 see a new candidate in 7 Race Course Road? It is hard to say at this point. There are political arguments both in favour and against a change in India’s leadership. If Manmohan Singh is replaced, it will not be for an interim arrangement till Rahul Gandhi feels confident of taking on the job – interim arrangements are unstable and unpredictable. One calculation is that the younger Gandhi could assume leadership, to lead the party in the general election due in 2014. On the other hand, the party might consider carrying on with the present arrangement, postponing a decision on the leadership till 2014.
What of the Opposition? 2012 will see a pleasant but ruthless tug of war in the BJP for leadership of the top slot. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has not yet begun thinking about the choices open to it. But with Shiromani Akali Dal almost certain to lose Punjab; and the BJP fighting anti-incumbency in Uttarakhand, the BJP will need a significant victory in UP to retain its credentials as a formidable opposition.
There is the extra-parliamentary opposition in the form of India Against Corruption as well. 2011 has been the year the NGO has come into its own. What will happen to NGO politics in 2012? It is certain that the world of politics will see not just personalities but events in 2012 making it the most exciting year since 2004.