 "BJD's return to NDA hinges on assembly poll results")
Even as speculations about regional outfit BJD returning to the NDA fold have gained momentum following airing of views to this effect by some senior party leaders, the outcome of the assembly elections in Odisha is likely to play a crucial role in taking a final call on such possibilities.
The speculations were fuelled by statements of BJD chief whip Pravat Tripathy, who said, the party could consider extending conditional support to NDA to protect the interest of the state particularly on issues like granting special category state status to Odisha and blocking the Polavaram dam project in Andhra Pradesh which threatens to submerge a large tract of tribal land in the state.
BJD MP, Baijayant Panda has also expressed similar views.
However, BJD supremo and chief minister Naveen Patnaik has denied any such move by his party as of now. “I am not aware what my party leaders have said. There is no talks or thoughts on giving support to BJP led NDA for government formation at the Centre”, he told reporters on his return from Delhi today.
But people, within BJD and outside, do not take Patnaik’s assertion as his final word on the matter. “It all depends on the performance of BJD in the assembly elections”, said a senior party leader wishing not to be named. “It is all about numbers”, he added.
Though BJD is tipped to come back to power for the fourth consecutive time in the state, it is widely believed its seat tally may come down from a peak of 103 seats (won in 2009 polls) in the 147 member assembly this time for factors like anti-incumbency, presence of rebel candidates in the fray and rise in BJP vote share.
When it comes to seat projection, BJD leaders are also talking in different voices. While senior party leader and Rajya Sabha MP Kalpataru Das predicts that the party would win over 100 seats, another party veteran and health minister Damodar Rout projects the seat strength in the range of 85 to 95.
Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, a former BJD poll strategist, who accurately predicted the results in 2004 and 2009 before his expulsion from the party for staging a coup in 2012, has given the ruling party 65 seats is the assembly this time. Similarly, some poll analysts and media reports have predicted a touch and go situation for BJD in the current election.
“In this backdrop if BJD gets a very thin majority by just crossing over the halfway mark of 74 seats in the assembly or falls short of the magic figure by few seats, then Patnaik may either readily agree to any suggestion of joining the NDA or himself make overtures to join the BJP-led combine to provide stability to his government in the state”, points out Rabi Das, a political observer.
Similarly, the keenness of BJP to accept BJD into the fold depends on how comfortable is the NDA combine to form the government at Centre after poll results are out, he added.
But if the ruling party repeats the sterling performance of 2009 when it won 15 (including one seat of its ally CPI) of the 21 Lok Sabha seats and 103 of the 147 seats, then Patnaik can either go for a hard bargain to accept any proposal to join the NDA or stick to his avowed stance of maintaining equi-distance from the Congress and BJP and explore the possibility of aligning with other regional satraps to form a Third Front to play a pivotal role at the Centre.
Meanwhile, BJP’s Odisha unit is not very keen on reviving tie-up with BJD which was ruptured on the eve of polls in 2009. They feel, BJP’s organisational strength in the state, which has seen resurgence during the current election, will weaken under the shadow of ‘big brotherly attitude’ of BJD as it did between 2000 and 2009 when the alliance was in force.
“There is no truth in revival of BJP-BJD alliance. This rumour is being spread by some vested interests”, said BJP state unit president KV Singhdeo. He, however, added, “We may consider any offer of support from BJD minus Naveen Patnaik”.
The speculations were fuelled by statements of BJD chief whip Pravat Tripathy, who said, the party could consider extending conditional support to NDA to protect the interest of the state particularly on issues like granting special category state status to Odisha and blocking the Polavaram dam project in Andhra Pradesh which threatens to submerge a large tract of tribal land in the state.
BJD MP, Baijayant Panda has also expressed similar views.
More From This Section
Another party veteran and Rajya Sabha MP, Kalpataru Das said, “some senior leaders of the party are in favour extending support to NDA from the outside for the interests of the state. But the matter has not been discussed at the party level”.
However, BJD supremo and chief minister Naveen Patnaik has denied any such move by his party as of now. “I am not aware what my party leaders have said. There is no talks or thoughts on giving support to BJP led NDA for government formation at the Centre”, he told reporters on his return from Delhi today.
But people, within BJD and outside, do not take Patnaik’s assertion as his final word on the matter. “It all depends on the performance of BJD in the assembly elections”, said a senior party leader wishing not to be named. “It is all about numbers”, he added.
Though BJD is tipped to come back to power for the fourth consecutive time in the state, it is widely believed its seat tally may come down from a peak of 103 seats (won in 2009 polls) in the 147 member assembly this time for factors like anti-incumbency, presence of rebel candidates in the fray and rise in BJP vote share.
When it comes to seat projection, BJD leaders are also talking in different voices. While senior party leader and Rajya Sabha MP Kalpataru Das predicts that the party would win over 100 seats, another party veteran and health minister Damodar Rout projects the seat strength in the range of 85 to 95.
Pyari Mohan Mohapatra, a former BJD poll strategist, who accurately predicted the results in 2004 and 2009 before his expulsion from the party for staging a coup in 2012, has given the ruling party 65 seats is the assembly this time. Similarly, some poll analysts and media reports have predicted a touch and go situation for BJD in the current election.
“In this backdrop if BJD gets a very thin majority by just crossing over the halfway mark of 74 seats in the assembly or falls short of the magic figure by few seats, then Patnaik may either readily agree to any suggestion of joining the NDA or himself make overtures to join the BJP-led combine to provide stability to his government in the state”, points out Rabi Das, a political observer.
Similarly, the keenness of BJP to accept BJD into the fold depends on how comfortable is the NDA combine to form the government at Centre after poll results are out, he added.
But if the ruling party repeats the sterling performance of 2009 when it won 15 (including one seat of its ally CPI) of the 21 Lok Sabha seats and 103 of the 147 seats, then Patnaik can either go for a hard bargain to accept any proposal to join the NDA or stick to his avowed stance of maintaining equi-distance from the Congress and BJP and explore the possibility of aligning with other regional satraps to form a Third Front to play a pivotal role at the Centre.
Meanwhile, BJP’s Odisha unit is not very keen on reviving tie-up with BJD which was ruptured on the eve of polls in 2009. They feel, BJP’s organisational strength in the state, which has seen resurgence during the current election, will weaken under the shadow of ‘big brotherly attitude’ of BJD as it did between 2000 and 2009 when the alliance was in force.
“There is no truth in revival of BJP-BJD alliance. This rumour is being spread by some vested interests”, said BJP state unit president KV Singhdeo. He, however, added, “We may consider any offer of support from BJD minus Naveen Patnaik”.