BJP's rising vote share in Bengal may upset TMC, Left prospects

After securing support of the Gorkha Janamukti Morcha (GJM), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now confident of regaining at least its lone Darjeeling seat in West Bengal. Whether a so-called Narendra Modi wave will help the saffron party to win a few more seats in the state may stir up a debate, but a rising BJP in the state seems to be giving sleepless nights to TMC and Left.

The alarm was raised for prominent political forces in West Bengal during last year's by-poll in Jangipur Lok Sabha constituency, where BJP secured an 11 per cent vote share compared three or four per cent in earlier elections in the area. Opinion polls and surveys too indicate the BJP may gain about a 10 per cent vote share this Lok Sabha, which may upset all political calculations.

TMC leaders admit that BJP could be a deciding factor in many closely contested seats. "The recent by-poll does indicate that BJP's vote share in the state is on the rise, perhaps it is not consolidated enough to translate into a seat. We have to see whose votes the BJP snatches away more," a senior TMC leader said. As the common belief is that BJP would get more of the anti-Left votes, TMC, which is going alone this time, has a cause for concern.

Perhaps this is why, in a state like West Bengal where Muslims constitute around 25 per cent of the population,TMC is working overtime to consolidate its minority vote bank.

Till now, as far as the minority support is concerned, the balance of political calculations still seems to be favouring Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress. Sanction of 10,000 madrasas in West Bengal, establishment of Aligarh Muslim University in WB, three Haj Towers in a row, declaration of second language status to Urdu in areas where the Urdu-speaking population is more than 10 per cent, huge loan and subsidy to the Muslim youth - there has been a lot in the offering by the state government for minorities. She, in fact, went overboard, as is seen in the case of declaring Rs 2,500 per month as Imam honorarium, which, however, was later stayed by a Calcutta High order.

CPI-M central committee member Mohammad Salim acknowledges the reality, but points out, "By all these measures, TMC is actually making the Bengal polity communal and BJP is taking advantage of this."

But ironically an increase of BJP's vote share is something CPI-M may be hoping for this election. Left believes it would take away more of TMC votes. "Electorally, BJP's increased vote share may benefit the Left only. Also in North Bengal, if TMC fields candidates in the Congress strongholds, we may trump the Congress to bag seats," said a senior CPI-M leader.