 "Congress local unit shifts gears for Nilekani's win in Bangalore")
Political insiders have a curious term for it. When an MLA goes "neutral" in a Lok Sabha election campaign, it means while he or she ostensibly supports the party's candidate , in point of fact, they're not going to do much of anything to help them get elected.
One of the many fascinating tales coming out of the Bangalore South contest is that internal party dynamics may often run against the grain of the official election contest.
When I asked local political observers how a not especially popular Bharatiya Janata Party MP, Ananth Kumar, could have won five successive elections albeit with shrinking victory margins, I got many of the usual answers, including that the constituency is a stronghold of the BJP and many conservative Hindus sympathetic to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh reside there.
The difference this time , in the view of observers close to the Congress, appears to be that at least two of the four Congress MLAs whose assembly segments overlap with the Bangalore South constituency (the other four are held by the BJP) have thrown their weight behind Nandan Nilekani's campaign.
Those knowledgeable on the Congress campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity, hinted strongly that this time around orders had come from the Congress high command in Delhi that the local party bosses had to get their act together and fall in line behind Nilekani's candidacy.
In a recent conversation with him, Nilekani himself told me the Congress party is "fully backing" his campaign.
And, those local party bosses comprise not only the MLAs and their functionaries but members of the municipal corporation and their party machines. At that fine-grained level of politicking, alliances are frequently formed for reasons of expediency even across party lines.
It's a fact that both major national parties and all the big regional parties rely on old-fashioned campaign tactics that involve party workers pounding the pavement. Speaking of the Bangalore South contest, Aam Aadmi Party candidate Nina Nayak described such methods as "muscle and money power", suggesting perhaps that party workers aren't only handing out leaflets when they go door to door.
It's striking that in a campaign characterised by its high-tech and high-minded approach, it appears that Nilekani still has to rely on the old-fashioned workings of the party machine to have a shot at winning the election.
An aggressive presence on social media may work with educated middle class voters, but it's likely to have little or no impact on the more disadvantaged voters in the constituency who don't have access to the internet and may not even know much about Nilekani. For such voters, the time-tested method of boots on the ground to spread the message and get out the vote can make a crucial difference.
Nilekani seems to have refined the method by creating a two-pronged strategy. In upscale neighbourhoods, where party workers would find it difficult or uncomfortable to gain access to gated building compounds, middle-class volunteers spread the word, leaving the rest of the constituency to party workers.
On the other side of the fence, the incumbent, Kumar, is widely seen as having been instrumental in the ouster of former Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa.
Still popular despite the corruption scams hanging around him, many voters in Karnataka haven't forgotten Kumar's role in deposing a controversial but vote-winning leader. The fact that just in the past few days, Yeddyurappa has been campaigning publicly with Kumar is presumably meant to assuage those whose feathers have been ruffled, but it remains to be seen if voters will buy this late rapprochement as anything other than a cynical ploy.
Kumar carries the additional baggage of being seen as a loyalist of party stalwart L K Advani and only a recent convert to the Narendra Modi camp. Several BJP supporters find Kumar now singing the praises of Modi, and saying a vote for him is a vote for Modi at the Centre, to be opportunistic at best.
Given the mixed feelings he evokes, it would appear to some analysts sympathetic to the BJP that two of four BJP MLAs falling under Bangalore South are actively campaigning for Kumar, while the other two are "neutral".
These analysts fear the dissatisfaction with Kumar as a candidate could bleed away some of his support, which coupled with the vigorous Nilekani campaign, might allow the latter to squeeze through. Add the wild card of Pramod Muthalik of the Ram Sene, who was unceremoniously booted out of the party for his misogynistic views and past behaviour.
Feeling slighted by the BJP, Muthalik is running as an independent in both Dharwad and Bangalore South, where he blames, among others, Kumar for his ouster from the party.
While no one expects Muthalik has any hope of winning this seat, the fear again among BJP strategists is that he might siphon off enough of the socially conservative Hindu vote to damage Kumar's re-election chances.
It's a salutary reminder that in an election in which issues, policies and modern campaign techniques have come to the fore, close election outcomes could still be decided by which party is better able to coalesce around its candidate and effectively deploy its workers to get the vote out on election day.
One of the many fascinating tales coming out of the Bangalore South contest is that internal party dynamics may often run against the grain of the official election contest.
When I asked local political observers how a not especially popular Bharatiya Janata Party MP, Ananth Kumar, could have won five successive elections albeit with shrinking victory margins, I got many of the usual answers, including that the constituency is a stronghold of the BJP and many conservative Hindus sympathetic to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh reside there.
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But another intriguing answer from several in the know is that historically, the local Congress party machine and its leaders - "satraps" - weren't very enthusiastic about having a Congress MP in their territory who would become their "boss". According to this version, they were quite content to do little in the election campaign and allow Kumar to repeatedly get elected, thereby leaving them undisputed chiefs of their small fiefdoms.
The difference this time , in the view of observers close to the Congress, appears to be that at least two of the four Congress MLAs whose assembly segments overlap with the Bangalore South constituency (the other four are held by the BJP) have thrown their weight behind Nandan Nilekani's campaign.
Those knowledgeable on the Congress campaign, speaking on condition of anonymity, hinted strongly that this time around orders had come from the Congress high command in Delhi that the local party bosses had to get their act together and fall in line behind Nilekani's candidacy.
In a recent conversation with him, Nilekani himself told me the Congress party is "fully backing" his campaign.
And, those local party bosses comprise not only the MLAs and their functionaries but members of the municipal corporation and their party machines. At that fine-grained level of politicking, alliances are frequently formed for reasons of expediency even across party lines.
It's a fact that both major national parties and all the big regional parties rely on old-fashioned campaign tactics that involve party workers pounding the pavement. Speaking of the Bangalore South contest, Aam Aadmi Party candidate Nina Nayak described such methods as "muscle and money power", suggesting perhaps that party workers aren't only handing out leaflets when they go door to door.
It's striking that in a campaign characterised by its high-tech and high-minded approach, it appears that Nilekani still has to rely on the old-fashioned workings of the party machine to have a shot at winning the election.
An aggressive presence on social media may work with educated middle class voters, but it's likely to have little or no impact on the more disadvantaged voters in the constituency who don't have access to the internet and may not even know much about Nilekani. For such voters, the time-tested method of boots on the ground to spread the message and get out the vote can make a crucial difference.
Nilekani seems to have refined the method by creating a two-pronged strategy. In upscale neighbourhoods, where party workers would find it difficult or uncomfortable to gain access to gated building compounds, middle-class volunteers spread the word, leaving the rest of the constituency to party workers.
On the other side of the fence, the incumbent, Kumar, is widely seen as having been instrumental in the ouster of former Chief Minister B S Yeddyurappa.
Still popular despite the corruption scams hanging around him, many voters in Karnataka haven't forgotten Kumar's role in deposing a controversial but vote-winning leader. The fact that just in the past few days, Yeddyurappa has been campaigning publicly with Kumar is presumably meant to assuage those whose feathers have been ruffled, but it remains to be seen if voters will buy this late rapprochement as anything other than a cynical ploy.
Kumar carries the additional baggage of being seen as a loyalist of party stalwart L K Advani and only a recent convert to the Narendra Modi camp. Several BJP supporters find Kumar now singing the praises of Modi, and saying a vote for him is a vote for Modi at the Centre, to be opportunistic at best.
Given the mixed feelings he evokes, it would appear to some analysts sympathetic to the BJP that two of four BJP MLAs falling under Bangalore South are actively campaigning for Kumar, while the other two are "neutral".
These analysts fear the dissatisfaction with Kumar as a candidate could bleed away some of his support, which coupled with the vigorous Nilekani campaign, might allow the latter to squeeze through. Add the wild card of Pramod Muthalik of the Ram Sene, who was unceremoniously booted out of the party for his misogynistic views and past behaviour.
Feeling slighted by the BJP, Muthalik is running as an independent in both Dharwad and Bangalore South, where he blames, among others, Kumar for his ouster from the party.
While no one expects Muthalik has any hope of winning this seat, the fear again among BJP strategists is that he might siphon off enough of the socially conservative Hindu vote to damage Kumar's re-election chances.
It's a salutary reminder that in an election in which issues, policies and modern campaign techniques have come to the fore, close election outcomes could still be decided by which party is better able to coalesce around its candidate and effectively deploy its workers to get the vote out on election day.