 "Five factors that can alter election predictions")
Though the opinion polls are predicting a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sweep in the Lok Sabha elections, here are five factors that can alter these predictions:
The Muslim vote
Following the withdrawal of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) candidate Aktar ul Imam from the fray in Bihar's Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency, Congress nominee Maulana Asrarul Haque is reported to be on a strong wicket.
While withdrawing his candidature, Imam is reported to have said he was retiring to ensure that the "secular vote" was not divided. What he is essentially hinting at is that Muslim votes should not get divided. And, as has been reported by the Business Standard, this is the message that has been sent out by some Muslim organisations to the community in other areas too.
Kishanganj is one of the 15 Muslim-majority Lok Sabha constituencies in the country and is therefore not a representative in the true sense of the term. However, consolidation of Muslim votes might impact the electoral outcome in other constituencies as well. "The Kishanganj impact is clearly visible in adjoining seats such as Araria, Purnea, Katihar, Supaul and Madhepura," says a Bihar Congress leader, who did not wish to be identified.
Apart from 15 Muslim-majority constituencies, there are another 38 seats where the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can tilt the balance in 49 other constituencies, where they make up 20-30 per cent of the electorate. In fact, in key battleground states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, there are as many as 32 constituencies, where Muslims constitute more than 20 per cent of the population.
Reduced margin of victory
A recent paper by Milan Vaishnav of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that margin of victory has been consistently falling in the Lok Sabha elections since 1984. In fact, in the last elections, candidates won with more than 50 per cent of the vote in only 22 per cent constituencies, "In 2009, it (the margin of victory) registered at 9.7 per cent, the thinnest margin since independence," he says. What it means is that average difference in votes polled by the winning candidate compared to the runner up was just under 10 per cent and a small swing at the constituency level may turn victory into defeat.
"In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, over 75 per cent of seats were won by candidates who failed to obtain a majority of the votes; 30 per cent of seats were won by candidates that failed to obtain 40 per cent or more of the vote. There were 78 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar alone where the winning candidate failed to obtain 40 per cent of the vote," says Devesh Tiwari of University of California at San Diego. Given the increasing competitiveness of elections, last minute swing at the ground level might change calculations of pollsters.
First time voters
Each Lok Sabha constituency is likely to have on an average 90,000 to 100,000 first time voters. Given the reduced margin of victory in recent elections, such a large number of young voters might influence electoral outcome in many constituencies. No survey has captured the mood of this group. We don't know whether this group is likely to vote as a cohesive group, irrespective of caste, class, region or rural-urban divide. However, what is increasingly become apparent is that this group is not very enthusiastic about exercising their voting rights still.
A Delhi-based political observer, who closely followed the election campaign of a Congress candidate from Assam, says, "Out of the total 150,000 new voters in his constituency, only 28,000 actually came out to vote, according to our estimate. This means, only 2800 votes in each of the ten Assembly constituencies." He adds from what he saw in Delhi and from what he gathered from other places, it is quite apparent that the response of first time voters has been lukewarm so far. He requested not to be named. This observation gels with the findings of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) surveys. "Our surveys since 1996 have shown that first time voters tend to vote less than the average voter turnout," says Sanjay Kumar, a fellow with the CSDS.
Local factors
It has been reported that top executives of India Inc. are willing to vote for change and vote for a stable government. But they are enthusiastic about the likes of Congress candidates Milind Deora and Priya Dutt in South Mumbai and Mumbai North West, respectively. The dilemma is not confined to Mumbai alone. From 2004 onwards, local factors seem to have played a far greater role in deciding electoral outcome even in the Lok Sabha elections.
"From 2004, local factors have dominated elections. From the choice of candidates to local issues - they have played a far greater role. While the role of local factors seems to have diminished somewhat this time, but they are important nevertheless," says Sanjay Kumar of CSDS. And poll predictions hardly give weightage to such local factors.
Caste arithmetic
As the saying goes, "People do not cast their vote, they caste their votes." Social scientists have hinted that caste is just one of the many variables, an important one at that, that voters take into account, while exercising their democratic rights. But when it comes to selecting candidates political parties keep caste arithmetic in each constituency in mind. For instance, in Bihar, the BJP and its allies have fielded 18 upper caste candidates, the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance has given tickets to eight leaders from the this group, whereas the JD(U) has nominated nine. However, the final outcome will depend a great deal on who gets the caste arithmetic right in each constituency.
The Muslim vote
Following the withdrawal of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) candidate Aktar ul Imam from the fray in Bihar's Kishanganj Lok Sabha constituency, Congress nominee Maulana Asrarul Haque is reported to be on a strong wicket.
While withdrawing his candidature, Imam is reported to have said he was retiring to ensure that the "secular vote" was not divided. What he is essentially hinting at is that Muslim votes should not get divided. And, as has been reported by the Business Standard, this is the message that has been sent out by some Muslim organisations to the community in other areas too.
Kishanganj is one of the 15 Muslim-majority Lok Sabha constituencies in the country and is therefore not a representative in the true sense of the term. However, consolidation of Muslim votes might impact the electoral outcome in other constituencies as well. "The Kishanganj impact is clearly visible in adjoining seats such as Araria, Purnea, Katihar, Supaul and Madhepura," says a Bihar Congress leader, who did not wish to be identified.
Apart from 15 Muslim-majority constituencies, there are another 38 seats where the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can tilt the balance in 49 other constituencies, where they make up 20-30 per cent of the electorate. In fact, in key battleground states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, there are as many as 32 constituencies, where Muslims constitute more than 20 per cent of the population.
Reduced margin of victory
A recent paper by Milan Vaishnav of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argues that margin of victory has been consistently falling in the Lok Sabha elections since 1984. In fact, in the last elections, candidates won with more than 50 per cent of the vote in only 22 per cent constituencies, "In 2009, it (the margin of victory) registered at 9.7 per cent, the thinnest margin since independence," he says. What it means is that average difference in votes polled by the winning candidate compared to the runner up was just under 10 per cent and a small swing at the constituency level may turn victory into defeat.
"In the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, over 75 per cent of seats were won by candidates who failed to obtain a majority of the votes; 30 per cent of seats were won by candidates that failed to obtain 40 per cent or more of the vote. There were 78 constituencies in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar alone where the winning candidate failed to obtain 40 per cent of the vote," says Devesh Tiwari of University of California at San Diego. Given the increasing competitiveness of elections, last minute swing at the ground level might change calculations of pollsters.
First time voters
Each Lok Sabha constituency is likely to have on an average 90,000 to 100,000 first time voters. Given the reduced margin of victory in recent elections, such a large number of young voters might influence electoral outcome in many constituencies. No survey has captured the mood of this group. We don't know whether this group is likely to vote as a cohesive group, irrespective of caste, class, region or rural-urban divide. However, what is increasingly become apparent is that this group is not very enthusiastic about exercising their voting rights still.
A Delhi-based political observer, who closely followed the election campaign of a Congress candidate from Assam, says, "Out of the total 150,000 new voters in his constituency, only 28,000 actually came out to vote, according to our estimate. This means, only 2800 votes in each of the ten Assembly constituencies." He adds from what he saw in Delhi and from what he gathered from other places, it is quite apparent that the response of first time voters has been lukewarm so far. He requested not to be named. This observation gels with the findings of Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) surveys. "Our surveys since 1996 have shown that first time voters tend to vote less than the average voter turnout," says Sanjay Kumar, a fellow with the CSDS.
Local factors
It has been reported that top executives of India Inc. are willing to vote for change and vote for a stable government. But they are enthusiastic about the likes of Congress candidates Milind Deora and Priya Dutt in South Mumbai and Mumbai North West, respectively. The dilemma is not confined to Mumbai alone. From 2004 onwards, local factors seem to have played a far greater role in deciding electoral outcome even in the Lok Sabha elections.
"From 2004, local factors have dominated elections. From the choice of candidates to local issues - they have played a far greater role. While the role of local factors seems to have diminished somewhat this time, but they are important nevertheless," says Sanjay Kumar of CSDS. And poll predictions hardly give weightage to such local factors.
Caste arithmetic
As the saying goes, "People do not cast their vote, they caste their votes." Social scientists have hinted that caste is just one of the many variables, an important one at that, that voters take into account, while exercising their democratic rights. But when it comes to selecting candidates political parties keep caste arithmetic in each constituency in mind. For instance, in Bihar, the BJP and its allies have fielded 18 upper caste candidates, the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress alliance has given tickets to eight leaders from the this group, whereas the JD(U) has nominated nine. However, the final outcome will depend a great deal on who gets the caste arithmetic right in each constituency.