 "Jobs take centre stage in Bihar")
The road to Gandaman, a remote village in Chapra district, has been recently metalled. The village has six transformers to ensure that it receives uninterrupted power. Although the people here are yet to recover from last year's deaths of 23 children after eating pesticide-laced mid-day meals served in school, the Nitish Kumar government seems to have done its bit to ensure that the village gets back to normal.
The school has a new building, there is a community centre near it. An anganwadi centre and a primary health care centre have come up. All of this was done in less than six months. All the affected families were given a cash compensation of Rs 2 lakh each.
But villagers want more. "All these facilities are fine. We will soon have a college and a water tank. The government should have given a job each to a member of the affected families," says Ashok Kumar Manjhi who lives in Gandaman. And that is the reason they are unlikely to vote for Kumar's party in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. "Facilities like these will not add to our earnings. All we want is jobs, good quality jobs. That can happen only when we have the kind of development that has happened in Gujarat. Narendra Modi alone can make that possible," says Ranjeet Kumar. Both Ranjeet and Ashok belong to social groups that would have otherwise voted for Nitish's party. Such sentiments are common in many parts of Bihar. People are happy with what Nitish has done so far, but they want more and the Bharatiya Janata Party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is seen as someone who can offer that. "The general feeling among the people is what the Nitish Kumar government has done by building roads and improving the law and order situation are the primary responsibility of any government. A good government is one that provides opportunities for upward mobility. Employment growth has been sluggish and the state is yet to receive any meaningful investment from the private sector," says Rakesh Ranjan who teaches political science at Patna University. A combination of factors seems to be working in favour of Modi's BJP. Resentment against the central government is high. And the BJP is perceived as the only alternative. "Modi alone has an alternative vision. The others are all the same. The Third Front is a joke," says Vinay Kumar, a law student at Patna University. He is one of nearly four million first-time voters in the state. Political commentators say most of them are likely to vote for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.
A number of people Business Standard spoke to justified their support for Modi saying he belongs to the social group that has been denied its due. "In the name of social justice we gave 25 years to Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar. What is wrong in giving five years to Modi," says Akhilesh, a resident of Chapra district.
"What appeals to the people here is Modi's image of a macho leader who can teach Pakistan a lesson and crush terrorism. Biharis like aggression and Modi comes across as an aggressive leader," says an editor with a Patna-based Hindi daily who did not want to be named. Commentators also say Modi is one of the few leaders from outside the state who have captured the people's imagination here. Ironically, Modi is gaining popularity at the expense of followers of another non-Bihari leader Ram Manohar Lohia. Lohia's followers include Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar.
Modi's popularity can be gauged from the fact that according to the latest Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) poll tracker, the BJP is expected to win a majority of upper caste, bania, and Paswan's votes. The party is also expected to get a sizeable chunk of votes from extreme backward classes. "I hate to say this, but there is no denying a Modi wave is visible on the streets of Bihar. Any political discussion begins and ends with Modi. All others have been reduced to the margin," the political observer and author of many books says. "I won't call it a Modi wave. But he certainly is the focal point of elections in Bihar. And Nitish Kumar's constant reference to Modi in the last two years, directly or indirectly, added to Modi's popularity in the state," says Prabhakar Kumar, a Patna-based political analyst.However, Modi's BJP may still have to overcome many obstacles to significantly improve upon its current tally of 12 Lok Sabha seats from the state. The electoral alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), though vote accretive, has not gone down well with its core supporters among the upper castes. "If the BJP had fielded its own candidate from Nalanda, he would have won hands down. But the seat was offered to the LJP. That has come as a disappointment for many of us," says Manoranjan Kumar, a resident of Nalanda district.
Another potential problem area for the party is the preference given to newcomers in contesting elections as opposed to those who were hopeful of being fielded. Ram Kripal Yadav from Patliputra and Vijay Kumar Kushwaha from Madhepura are two of the 10 newcomers who were preferred over party veterans. This has demoralised the party rank and file in some places. But the biggest stumbling block the party has to cross is what is known as efficient management of local factors. Modi certainly is the most talked about leader in Bihar at the moment. Whether that results in handsome electoral gains for BJP will depend on how the party manages local issues in each of the state's 40 Lok Sabha constituencies.
The school has a new building, there is a community centre near it. An anganwadi centre and a primary health care centre have come up. All of this was done in less than six months. All the affected families were given a cash compensation of Rs 2 lakh each.
But villagers want more. "All these facilities are fine. We will soon have a college and a water tank. The government should have given a job each to a member of the affected families," says Ashok Kumar Manjhi who lives in Gandaman. And that is the reason they are unlikely to vote for Kumar's party in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. "Facilities like these will not add to our earnings. All we want is jobs, good quality jobs. That can happen only when we have the kind of development that has happened in Gujarat. Narendra Modi alone can make that possible," says Ranjeet Kumar. Both Ranjeet and Ashok belong to social groups that would have otherwise voted for Nitish's party. Such sentiments are common in many parts of Bihar. People are happy with what Nitish has done so far, but they want more and the Bharatiya Janata Party's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is seen as someone who can offer that. "The general feeling among the people is what the Nitish Kumar government has done by building roads and improving the law and order situation are the primary responsibility of any government. A good government is one that provides opportunities for upward mobility. Employment growth has been sluggish and the state is yet to receive any meaningful investment from the private sector," says Rakesh Ranjan who teaches political science at Patna University. A combination of factors seems to be working in favour of Modi's BJP. Resentment against the central government is high. And the BJP is perceived as the only alternative. "Modi alone has an alternative vision. The others are all the same. The Third Front is a joke," says Vinay Kumar, a law student at Patna University. He is one of nearly four million first-time voters in the state. Political commentators say most of them are likely to vote for the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections.
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What adds to Modi's rising popularity in the state is his multiple public personalities. "To Hindutva followers, whose number is not very high in the state, he is a tough man. To the aspirational middle class, he personifies development. And he is a backward caste leader who has a fair chance of becoming the prime minister," says a Patna-based Left-leaning political observer who refused to be named.
A number of people Business Standard spoke to justified their support for Modi saying he belongs to the social group that has been denied its due. "In the name of social justice we gave 25 years to Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar. What is wrong in giving five years to Modi," says Akhilesh, a resident of Chapra district.
"What appeals to the people here is Modi's image of a macho leader who can teach Pakistan a lesson and crush terrorism. Biharis like aggression and Modi comes across as an aggressive leader," says an editor with a Patna-based Hindi daily who did not want to be named. Commentators also say Modi is one of the few leaders from outside the state who have captured the people's imagination here. Ironically, Modi is gaining popularity at the expense of followers of another non-Bihari leader Ram Manohar Lohia. Lohia's followers include Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar.
Modi's popularity can be gauged from the fact that according to the latest Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) poll tracker, the BJP is expected to win a majority of upper caste, bania, and Paswan's votes. The party is also expected to get a sizeable chunk of votes from extreme backward classes. "I hate to say this, but there is no denying a Modi wave is visible on the streets of Bihar. Any political discussion begins and ends with Modi. All others have been reduced to the margin," the political observer and author of many books says. "I won't call it a Modi wave. But he certainly is the focal point of elections in Bihar. And Nitish Kumar's constant reference to Modi in the last two years, directly or indirectly, added to Modi's popularity in the state," says Prabhakar Kumar, a Patna-based political analyst.However, Modi's BJP may still have to overcome many obstacles to significantly improve upon its current tally of 12 Lok Sabha seats from the state. The electoral alliance with Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), though vote accretive, has not gone down well with its core supporters among the upper castes. "If the BJP had fielded its own candidate from Nalanda, he would have won hands down. But the seat was offered to the LJP. That has come as a disappointment for many of us," says Manoranjan Kumar, a resident of Nalanda district.
Another potential problem area for the party is the preference given to newcomers in contesting elections as opposed to those who were hopeful of being fielded. Ram Kripal Yadav from Patliputra and Vijay Kumar Kushwaha from Madhepura are two of the 10 newcomers who were preferred over party veterans. This has demoralised the party rank and file in some places. But the biggest stumbling block the party has to cross is what is known as efficient management of local factors. Modi certainly is the most talked about leader in Bihar at the moment. Whether that results in handsome electoral gains for BJP will depend on how the party manages local issues in each of the state's 40 Lok Sabha constituencies.