Modi safe, AK missile to miss target, say experts

There is little likelihood of Arvind Kejriwal beating Narendra Modi, but the Aam Aadmi Party chief has shown signs that he will go down fighting. Against the Bharatiya Janata Party’s resources and cadres, the AAP is fighting its first Lok Sabha elections with few resources and an army of inexperienced activists. It is obvious that Kejriwal has exercised enormous ‘aam aadmi’ clout to puncture Modi’s development and governance claims. While there’s a lot of support for Modi in Varanasi at the moment, the AAP didn’t attack Modi’s alleged communal image. Why? That is the concern. If things go horribly wrong Kejriwal could be pushed to third or fourth place in Varanasi. Modi's biggest advantage over Kejriwal is the aura of being BJP’s prime minister-in-waiting.

 

Modi is a controversial leader accused of not doing enough when communal riots broke out in Gujarat. There is no denying the fact that Modi's Varanasi Lok Sabha ticket comes with religious implications that could spoil his cautiously marketed development appeal. It gives his political rivals enough ammunition to prove that his principal driving force is Hindutva, and not the so-called Gujarat growth story.

 

It is important to note here that the BJP's principal opponents -- the Samajwadi Party, Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh  -- are not in a position to deflate Modi's superman '56-inch chest' image for a variety of reasons. Will the different political parties unite behind Kejriwal?

 

“There is no possibility of unanimity among political parties in favour of Kejriwal’s candidature in Varanasi. However, the Thakur and Muslim votes will be a deciding factor,” observes Mohammad Arif, an associate professor of political science in Varanasi’s Mahatma Gandhi Kashi Vidyapith.

 

Arvind K Joshi, a professor at the Department of Sociology at Banaras Hindu University in Varanasi, agrees that at this juncture a joint candidate against Modi is highly improbable as almost all parties have their own political ambitions. “For polarization to work in an electoral battle, you need heavyweight candidates on both sides. That is not a factor in Varanasi as of now. And, Kejriwal may not be able to match Modi in terms of political clout,” explains Joshi. 

 

Kejriwal was voted to power in Delhi with a massive amount of goodwill. His failure to run the government will certainly be a blot in his career. It seems that the option before the Varanasi voters is to choose between Modi’s credibility as an administrator and Kejriwal’s histrionics.  

 

There has also been a turf war going on between the BJP and the AAP, with both trying to retain control over the middle class and youth vote banks. Is contesting against Modi a political masterstroke by Kejriwal? Quite likely. There seems to be a direct correlation between the media and the AAP’s game plan. Critics of the nascent party say the media, especially 24-hour news channel is to the AAP what oxygen is to people. Kejriwal’s concern over the AAP failure to win the perception war came to the fore when he reportedly propagated that the Congress party is not in a position to defeat the Hindutva mascot. Also, it seems that Kejriwal is deliberately taking pot-shots at Modi to keep media focus on himself. And he finally succeeded in drawing Modi into a war of words.

 

“Varanasi is a popular base of the BJP, so Modi will certainly have a plus point from here. As far as Kejriwal is concerned, he is no doubt attracting youth voters and that might a pose a challenge to Modi in the forthcoming polls. Kejriwal is not fighting against Modi to hog the limelight. He is a popular social activist as well as an emerging political leader,” said Arif.

 

Many of the city's academics that Business Standard  spoke to, are of the view that the fate of the Modi-versus-Kejriwal battle royal is a foregone conclusion. Moreover, they gave a sense that voters in Varanasi might feel that the fledging party is only trying to play spoiler. Anti-AAP protesters followed him wherever Kejriwal went.

 

“Modi and the BJP should focus on their strengths and rely on their strong public base. The ongoing Modi wave is sweeping the nation. Kejriwal should be viewed as just an upstart hoping to get some publicity by his (at times) unconstitutional antics and nothing more than that. He should be ignored. Modi, by virtue of his charisma and the political backing, is the favourite,” said Joshi. 

 

Experts are quite vocal on this front, arguing that Varanasi, as a traditional city, has shown strong inclination for the saffron party in the past elections. “The composite demographic profile of the city appears to be a contest between Modi having an edge over the others,” says J K Tiwary, a professor of sociology in Banaras Hindu University.

 

It's been long said that any trip to Varanasi is incomplete without getting lost in the maze of narrow lanes. Question is: Will Kejriwal be able to get out of this criss-cross?