Narendra Modi tsunami destroys coalition era myth, wins India

What are the political implications of Verdict 2014? It is clearly a vote against the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance’s policies. In terms of India’s political evolution, how important really is the 2014 Lok Sabha election result? Certainly, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s emphatic win destroys the myth of coalition politics, with Narendra Modi today gifting India its first single-party government in 30 years. People voted in favour of Modi to bring the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance back to power, decisively, for the next five years. Modi, in his maiden term as Prime Minister, has the kind of support that he may not even have dreamt of during his campaigning days. The mandate has given him the opportunity to match his actions with his views. 

 

To be sure, the prime ministership will not be up for bargaining, as some of the heavyweight regional players – Mamata Banerjee, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Nitish Kumar and the Left – were hoping. Verdict 2014 leaves no room for the regional parties or smaller groupings to engage in backroom negotiations to decide the shape of the next government. The BJP’s improved tally at the hustings — 282 out of 543 — tells the story of a resurgent party. Unlike its political rivals, the saffron party got both its plot and script right — whether it was the emphasis on United Progressive Alliance’s misgovernance, unabated price rise or corruption at high places. 

 

Leadership

 

“It is a decisive endorsement of Narendra Modi as PM; and definitely an endorsement of everything that he stands for which includes his development model as well as his basic core issue of Hindutva. At the same time, it is a total rejection of policy paralysis which has stepped in since 2010 in the UPA-II. The biggest challenge before Modi is to give a stable and all inclusive government,” observes Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay, an eminent columnist and author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.

 

The Modi Factor

 

Also, the people’s decision is in favour of stability. There is no other way to read the election results at present. What cannot be overlooked is the fact that the BJP has more seats than all the parties that constitute the UPA. This is an indicator of the people’s faith in BJP and in its leadership. The swing in favour of the saffron party means freedom to a large extent from the compulsions of coalition politics. And, one crucial factor in this process was the decision of the BJP to promote Modi as its prime ministerial candidate despite stiff opposition from senior party leaders.  

 

“The BJP saw an opportunity and seized it and is being rewarded with success. The opportunity was not created by Modi; the opportunity was created by the Congress. The Congress witnessed the worst recession in global history, possibly even worse than 1930s. The party followed a policy of steadily raising interest rates in India, thereby killing industrial growth. And this effectively cost the citizens approximately 40 million jobs. The desperation that emerged in the country became the opportunity that Modi seized. The BJP posed a teaser to the people that went something like: Who do we have as head of a highly prosperous and rapidly growing state, and who could be put forward as a candidate? The obvious answer was Modi. And a desperate India, driven to the brink of absolute bankruptcy, bought the story,” said Prem Shankar Jha, an independent analyst and a well-known author.

 

Vote for Change 

 

Certainly, India in 2014 is not the same country it was in 2004. The Congress’ downfall is in failing to recognise this. It instituted populist social schemes such as right-to-work and food security for all and so on. However, such programmes are costly and prone to rampant corruption. By putting a burden on the exchequer, the Grand Old Party has contributed to persistent inflation. That, in turn, has forced the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates, slowing growth.

 

“The 2004 poll verdict was also influenced by an anti-incumbency wave. The BJP's overconfidence over the India Shining agenda was responsible for its poor show in 2004 and some of the powerful regional allies left the NDA. The Congress debacle this time is largely due to a lack of organization to support its campaign in this election and it is crippled because of factional squabbles. There is a vocal section within the Congress, especially at the district levels in the BIMARU states, which is not favourably inclined towards the dynasty. The Indian youth do not seem to have been persuaded by the so-called dynamic leadership of Rahul Gandhi. The Congress has miserably failed to read the changing mindset of the young (and also new) voters of India. Here, Modi's package of development (and infrastructural growth) appears to have swayed them in his favour,” argues Bidyut Chakrabarty, professor of political science at University of Delhi.

 

Modi vs Rahul

 

Voters chose to reward political parties – and candidates – that offered a positive agenda for governance. The mandate for the NDA is as much an endorsement of the Modi government’s record in Gujarat as a rebuttal of political ideas that appeared obsolete. The contrasting campaigns conducted by Rahul Gandhi and Narendra Modi, perhaps the star campaigners of the Congress and the BJP, were revealing. Gandhi spoke about what his party did during the last 10 years, but could not offer any concrete plans for the future, while Modi offered a positive take on everything that the UPA failed to deliver in a decade. 

 

“To attribute the Congress debacle in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls only to Rahul Gandhi's leadership is unfair. This is a powerful message against the lack or failure of governance which resulted in scams of massive proportions. One should not also forget that there are hardly any capable leaders (of the mould of YSR, for instance) at the regions to support the organization as in the past. Rahul has begun to reorganize the local leadership and if he continues with this mission, the Congress has a chance of reviving in the long run. I still think that the Modi-wave has considerably gained ground because of Congress' failings; in other words, it was possible for Modi to sell his dreams in a scenario in which the UPA messed up everything showing perhaps its policy bankruptcy as well,” said Chakrabarty.

 

For the saffron party, today’s verdict was arguably its sweetest victory in decades. In terms of numbers, the BJP secured much bigger wins in 1998. As a vibrant democracy, India needs both a strong government and a robust opposition. The verdict 2014 has, however, only thrown up only one of these.