Narendra Modi pours cold water on Mamata, Jayalalithaa and Mayawati's kingmaker plan

Known for their authoritarian style of governance, three powerful women – J Jayalalithaa, Mamata Banerjee and Kumari Mayawati – are nowhere in the race to form the next government at the Centre, if the trends thrown up by the latest survey hold till the country goes to the final phase of elections. The AIADMK, the Trinamool Congress, and the Bahujan Samaj Party actually need to win 30 seats apiece – or at least 90 seats collectively – to actually get an opportunity to play the role of a kingmaker. At present, it seems highly improbable. In which case, India is unlikely to witness a repetition of the ninth Lok Sabha (1989 to 1991) and the 11th Lok Sabha (1996 to 1998), each of which saw multiple premiers and neither of which lasted even half its five-year term.

 

If the opinion poll predictions come true, the path will be clear to Narendra Modi’s real destination: 7 Race Course Road (Prime Minister’s office). However, the Trinamool chief has slammed the door on Modi by retorting he has “blood on his hands.” The BSP boss has warned that if Modi comes to power, “the whole nation will witness riots.” It appears that the barbs are just a strategy to polarise the votes and the parties could have an understanding of sorts after the Lok Sabha elections.

 

Of late, however, the uncertainty about the extent to which the saffron party will increase its vote share in West Bengal because of the focus on Modi is the other reason why Mamata has made her Gujarat counterpart a target. Despite Mamata’s image of honesty and simplicity, Modi attacked her on corruption, raking up the Saradha scandal and the financial fraud at the Siliguri Jalpaiguri Development Authority.

 

“The BJP will certainly perform better this time than it did five years ago. However, the party is not in a position to bring a topsy-turvy change in the state, as it has to counter the Left as well as the Trinamool Congress especially in rural areas. Moreover, surprises cannot be ruled out in urban pockets, either. That said, the youth are certainly impressed with Modi’s growth-oriented policies. At present, there are too many ifs and buts about Mamata Banerjee supporting a Modi-led government in Delhi. It all depends on how many seats the BJP wins on its own. And if the BJP’s tally falls below the 200-mark, Modi may gamble heavily by offering Trinamool Congress an attractive financial package for West Bengal. Nevertheless, under no circumstances will Mamata sacrifice her secular credentials. She will make sure the BJP’s Hindutva agenda is kept on the backburner and that the alliance follows a common minimum programme,” said Bonita Aleaz, professor of political science at University of Calcutta.

 

Disenchantment among Muslims with the ruling Samajwadi Party after the Muzaffarnagar riots has opened a window for the BSP to woo the minority community, as they are set to vote tactically to keep Modi out. The poll arithmetic works out in the BSP's favour. The Muslims constitute 18% of the state's population and the party's core supporters among the Dalits, at approximately 23%, form a bigger grouping than the Dalit-Brahmin combine that the BSP banked on in the 2007 assembly elections and 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

 

“Mayawati’s social engineering is unlikely to work this time. The issues that afflict Dalit voters barely find any space on the party’s poll agenda. The importance of Muslim votes is evident from the fact that all political parties are attempting to gain a share as their entire election campaign is focused on wooing the community. A large number of schedule castes and other backward castes are moving towards the saffron party. Moreover, Narendra Modi also belongs to similar social base, so that gives the BJP an added advantage. With Modi as the PM candidate and former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh back in the party, the BJP is confident of winning a large chunk of the OBC votes as well. Aware of the upper caste shift towards the BJP, Mayawati has propped up the Dalit-Muslim combination to counter the Modi wave in the state," observers S K Dwivedi, professor at University of Lucknow.

 

Jayalalithaa’s attack on the BJP came after Modi’s much-publicised visit to film star Rajinikanth’s house that culminated with the actor declaring his support for the Gujarat CM. This development assumes greater significance in the light of the fact that Jayalalithaa has been known to have a personal rapport with her Gujarat counterpart. The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister did not take on the BJP on the ‘communal’ question for which the party is generally taken to task.

 

“In Tamil Nadu, it is a fight between the AIADMK and the DMK. In the present scenario, the DMK is not giving room to the AIADMK for a post-poll alliance with the BJP.  Both the AIADMK and the DMK are looking to team up with his government if the NDA falls short of numbers. The two major Dravidian players back Modi’s development agenda. Their primary worry is how many seats they will win for a better bargain,” said M Kennedy Stephenson Vaseekaran, associate professor at University of Madras.

 

As Modi juggernaut rolls on, will the BJP's PM-in waiting face bumpy roads ahead?