 "'Nitish has done a lot, but why waste my vote?'")
Savita Devi from Burney village, a predominantly Mahadalit basti, with only a few pucca dwellings built through the Indira Gandhi Awaas Yojana, is pleased that her daughter is going to school and “is in class seven all due to the ‘chattra bhatta’ (student scholarship) and the free uniforms that she gets.” Older girls in this village have benefited from the free cycles the Janata Dal (United) state government has distributed for all girls from class eight.
But Savita Devi pragmatically states, “Nitish ne vikaas kiya hai. Lekin vote barbaad kyon karein? Yeh chunaav Dilli ke liye hai, Bihar ke liye nahi (Nitish Kumar has done a lot of developmental work. But why waste my vote? This election is for a government in Delhi, it is not Bihar’s state elections).”
As Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s helicopter lands, raising clouds of dust at the school grounds in Masaurhi nearby, this is certainly not good news. The JD(U) leader, however, is all too acutely aware of the shifting loyalties in the public mood. Almost thought-reading his audience, he warns them, “You think that you’ll vote for Nitish in the Assembly polls next year and vote for others now; but remember once my enemies (aka Narendra Modi) come to power at the Centre, it will become difficult for us.”
“Its an individual-centric fight,” he says without naming Modi, whose appointment as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate led to the break of the 17-year-old JD(U)-BJP alliance. He follows that with a jab at the RJD chief, recalling the “goonda raj” and lawlessness during the Lalu Prasad era. He then tells the crowd that the JD(U)’s demand for “special status” for Bihar will entail tax incentives for investors and help bring employment for them.
Kumar ends his speech with an appeal to “vote for the arrow”, and then makes a dash to his helicopter for the next ‘jansabha’ venue at Punpun. As he leaves the ground, he laughs off suggestions that this poll is a test of survival for him, saying, “Let my rivals say what they want.” Preferring not to respond to the observation that the JD(U) is isolated today and its development plank clearly not clicking with the electorate, the Bihar chief minister focuses on waving to the crowds and acknowledging them.
After the break with the BJP, the JD(U) is contesting for the first time on its own in at least 25 seats in a decade. Fighting possibly his toughest battle thus far, Kumar keeps a packed schedule, setting off every day at 11 am on a helicopter, rushing from one venue to the next.
As the sole leader campaigning for the JD(U), Kumar addresses as many as five meetings every day, returning to Patna only late in the evening.
In a deeply caste-ridden society, Kumar had carved out exclusive vote banks of the Mahadalits and Pasmanda (backward) Muslims to consolidate his position. After the split with the BJP, this is the first test of strength of these vote banks and their loyalty to Nitish.
In Rahmatganj, a Pasmanda majority area, “educated unemployed” youth and senior citizens gather at the local chemist’s every evening. As Mohammed Shamsul Haque, a retired high school teacher explains, “Last time in 2009, we didn’t vote for Lalu, we voted for Kumar. But this time, we need to vote against Narendra Modi and, therefore, whoever is the strongest to oppose Modi, we will vote for him.” He adds, “At present, Lalu seems the most fit to do that, so we will vote for the RJD.” To almost compensate for the lack of support to Kumar, the group adds in unison, “In Bihar during the Assembly polls, we will support Nitish.”
Kumar’s social engineering hasn’t pleased many within this backward minority community. “Nitish has only encouraged ‘jaativaad’. “All posts in the police, BDOs and CDOs automatically go to the Kurmi caste to which Kumar belongs. Its almost reserved for them,” says an embittered Mohd Faiz, unemployed since the time he graduated three years ago. Kumar, say political commentators, has retained his hold decisively on only this 1. 5 per cent of the vote bank, confined to the Kurmis.
The step to reserve mukhiya posts in panchayats for backward castes by Kumar has backfired in several instances. Not only are the upper caste Bhumihars and Rajputs angry with a “lower caste lording over them”, the Mahadalits complain of “honorific posts as panchayat pramukhs with no power to function.” Even the aligning of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party with the BJP has had an impact on the backward Dalit community, with several voters now even contemplating the prospect of “not wasting their vote on the JD(U) and voting for the BJP instead”.
Women voters in large numbers continue to back the Bihar chief minister. Kumar’s popularity among women can be attributed to his initiatives for women empowerment, whether it be to reserve 50 per cent seats in panchayats or the 50 per cent reservation in recruitment of primary school teachers. “I have lots to be thankful to Nitish Kumar for,” says Nibha Kumari, a trainee at the Rural Development and Self-Employment Training Institute in Hajipur. “It’s due to my cycle that I could continue my studies and explore the options available for me; that’s how I got to know of this institute.”
For Kumar and his JD(U), which won 32 of the 40 seats it contested in 2009 in alliance with the BJP — with the JD(U) bagging 20 of these — the prospects this time are not as promising. In Bihar’s eastern corner in Kishanganj, where the 72 per cent Muslim majority population determines poll outcomes, the JD(U) has crash landed even before takeoff, taking the party by surprise. Its Muslim candidate, Akhtar ul Imam, “retired” from the contest in favour of the Congress’ Asrarul Haque claiming he was helping “consolidate the secular (Muslim) vote to defeat the BJP.” Imam is one among the many “turncoats” the beleaguered JD(U) had welcomed from the rival RJD camp, rewarding him with a Lok Sabha ticket.
Many believe Kumar’s golden run at the hustings has been abruptly cut short due to his own doing. “His ego came in the way and he broke up with the BJP. He started nursing prime ministerial ambitions and parted ways, using the pretext of a ‘communal Narendra Modi’,” says Prasad Saraf a Marwari businessman in the Mirzaowk area of Darbhanga. “A lot of businessmen stayed back in Bihar assured by the capable presence of then deputy chief minister Sushil Modi that the BJP- JD(U) government was working fine”. In this Maithili Brahmin-dominated Mithi-lanchal, despite Kumar fielding his close associate, a Brahmin, Sanjay Jha — who most upper castes concede “is the best of the three candidates” in the fray here — it is the “undeserving Kirti Azad” that is likely to get their votes. “Modiji ko prime minister banana hai na,” (I want to make Modiji prime minister) says Manish Kumar Mishra. Therefore, this seat is likely to see a split in Brahmin votes with interestingly not all Brahmins rooting for the BJP and Narendra Modi.
Kumar is not too far off the mark when he says there is no “Modi wave” in Bihar for the voter here, it is caste which first dictates his choice and the local Bihari dismisses the tall claims of the “Modi wave” as an “urban media creation” and the BJP’s ad blitzkrieg.
Chiding his old-time socialist compatriot and now his principal adversary in the state, RJD chief Prasad has the crowd applauding in Danapur when he says, “Meri billi, hami ko meow! (My pet cat has the gall to now snarl at me).”
As pollsters forecast a dismal outcome, with most surveys giving the standalone JD(U) only one-fifth of the seats it won in the last Lok Sabha polls, the alarms bells could be ringing for the rainbow coalition of Kurmis-Koeris, Most Backward Classes, Pasmanda Muslims and Mahadalits that Kumar had stitched together. It will be closely watched whether the outcome of these parliamentary polls will be a verdict on Kumar as the state goes into Assembly polls in 2015 and Kumar himself looks for a third term at the helm of the state. Before that, political commentators will be keen to know on May 16 if Kumar’s gamble to break with the BJP did indeed pay off.
But Savita Devi pragmatically states, “Nitish ne vikaas kiya hai. Lekin vote barbaad kyon karein? Yeh chunaav Dilli ke liye hai, Bihar ke liye nahi (Nitish Kumar has done a lot of developmental work. But why waste my vote? This election is for a government in Delhi, it is not Bihar’s state elections).”
As Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s helicopter lands, raising clouds of dust at the school grounds in Masaurhi nearby, this is certainly not good news. The JD(U) leader, however, is all too acutely aware of the shifting loyalties in the public mood. Almost thought-reading his audience, he warns them, “You think that you’ll vote for Nitish in the Assembly polls next year and vote for others now; but remember once my enemies (aka Narendra Modi) come to power at the Centre, it will become difficult for us.”
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He exhorts them, “This is a fight, an election for Bihari ‘aatma samman” (Bihari pride and self-respect).” Reminding them of all the development that has taken place during his eight-year regime, he asks why both his rivals, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad and Bharatiya Janata Party prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi do not discuss development or policies in these Lok Sabha polls.
“Its an individual-centric fight,” he says without naming Modi, whose appointment as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate led to the break of the 17-year-old JD(U)-BJP alliance. He follows that with a jab at the RJD chief, recalling the “goonda raj” and lawlessness during the Lalu Prasad era. He then tells the crowd that the JD(U)’s demand for “special status” for Bihar will entail tax incentives for investors and help bring employment for them.
Kumar ends his speech with an appeal to “vote for the arrow”, and then makes a dash to his helicopter for the next ‘jansabha’ venue at Punpun. As he leaves the ground, he laughs off suggestions that this poll is a test of survival for him, saying, “Let my rivals say what they want.” Preferring not to respond to the observation that the JD(U) is isolated today and its development plank clearly not clicking with the electorate, the Bihar chief minister focuses on waving to the crowds and acknowledging them.
After the break with the BJP, the JD(U) is contesting for the first time on its own in at least 25 seats in a decade. Fighting possibly his toughest battle thus far, Kumar keeps a packed schedule, setting off every day at 11 am on a helicopter, rushing from one venue to the next.
As the sole leader campaigning for the JD(U), Kumar addresses as many as five meetings every day, returning to Patna only late in the evening.
In a deeply caste-ridden society, Kumar had carved out exclusive vote banks of the Mahadalits and Pasmanda (backward) Muslims to consolidate his position. After the split with the BJP, this is the first test of strength of these vote banks and their loyalty to Nitish.
In Rahmatganj, a Pasmanda majority area, “educated unemployed” youth and senior citizens gather at the local chemist’s every evening. As Mohammed Shamsul Haque, a retired high school teacher explains, “Last time in 2009, we didn’t vote for Lalu, we voted for Kumar. But this time, we need to vote against Narendra Modi and, therefore, whoever is the strongest to oppose Modi, we will vote for him.” He adds, “At present, Lalu seems the most fit to do that, so we will vote for the RJD.” To almost compensate for the lack of support to Kumar, the group adds in unison, “In Bihar during the Assembly polls, we will support Nitish.”
Kumar’s social engineering hasn’t pleased many within this backward minority community. “Nitish has only encouraged ‘jaativaad’. “All posts in the police, BDOs and CDOs automatically go to the Kurmi caste to which Kumar belongs. Its almost reserved for them,” says an embittered Mohd Faiz, unemployed since the time he graduated three years ago. Kumar, say political commentators, has retained his hold decisively on only this 1. 5 per cent of the vote bank, confined to the Kurmis.
The step to reserve mukhiya posts in panchayats for backward castes by Kumar has backfired in several instances. Not only are the upper caste Bhumihars and Rajputs angry with a “lower caste lording over them”, the Mahadalits complain of “honorific posts as panchayat pramukhs with no power to function.” Even the aligning of Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janashakti Party with the BJP has had an impact on the backward Dalit community, with several voters now even contemplating the prospect of “not wasting their vote on the JD(U) and voting for the BJP instead”.
Women voters in large numbers continue to back the Bihar chief minister. Kumar’s popularity among women can be attributed to his initiatives for women empowerment, whether it be to reserve 50 per cent seats in panchayats or the 50 per cent reservation in recruitment of primary school teachers. “I have lots to be thankful to Nitish Kumar for,” says Nibha Kumari, a trainee at the Rural Development and Self-Employment Training Institute in Hajipur. “It’s due to my cycle that I could continue my studies and explore the options available for me; that’s how I got to know of this institute.”
For Kumar and his JD(U), which won 32 of the 40 seats it contested in 2009 in alliance with the BJP — with the JD(U) bagging 20 of these — the prospects this time are not as promising. In Bihar’s eastern corner in Kishanganj, where the 72 per cent Muslim majority population determines poll outcomes, the JD(U) has crash landed even before takeoff, taking the party by surprise. Its Muslim candidate, Akhtar ul Imam, “retired” from the contest in favour of the Congress’ Asrarul Haque claiming he was helping “consolidate the secular (Muslim) vote to defeat the BJP.” Imam is one among the many “turncoats” the beleaguered JD(U) had welcomed from the rival RJD camp, rewarding him with a Lok Sabha ticket.
Many believe Kumar’s golden run at the hustings has been abruptly cut short due to his own doing. “His ego came in the way and he broke up with the BJP. He started nursing prime ministerial ambitions and parted ways, using the pretext of a ‘communal Narendra Modi’,” says Prasad Saraf a Marwari businessman in the Mirzaowk area of Darbhanga. “A lot of businessmen stayed back in Bihar assured by the capable presence of then deputy chief minister Sushil Modi that the BJP- JD(U) government was working fine”. In this Maithili Brahmin-dominated Mithi-lanchal, despite Kumar fielding his close associate, a Brahmin, Sanjay Jha — who most upper castes concede “is the best of the three candidates” in the fray here — it is the “undeserving Kirti Azad” that is likely to get their votes. “Modiji ko prime minister banana hai na,” (I want to make Modiji prime minister) says Manish Kumar Mishra. Therefore, this seat is likely to see a split in Brahmin votes with interestingly not all Brahmins rooting for the BJP and Narendra Modi.
Kumar is not too far off the mark when he says there is no “Modi wave” in Bihar for the voter here, it is caste which first dictates his choice and the local Bihari dismisses the tall claims of the “Modi wave” as an “urban media creation” and the BJP’s ad blitzkrieg.
Chiding his old-time socialist compatriot and now his principal adversary in the state, RJD chief Prasad has the crowd applauding in Danapur when he says, “Meri billi, hami ko meow! (My pet cat has the gall to now snarl at me).”
As pollsters forecast a dismal outcome, with most surveys giving the standalone JD(U) only one-fifth of the seats it won in the last Lok Sabha polls, the alarms bells could be ringing for the rainbow coalition of Kurmis-Koeris, Most Backward Classes, Pasmanda Muslims and Mahadalits that Kumar had stitched together. It will be closely watched whether the outcome of these parliamentary polls will be a verdict on Kumar as the state goes into Assembly polls in 2015 and Kumar himself looks for a third term at the helm of the state. Before that, political commentators will be keen to know on May 16 if Kumar’s gamble to break with the BJP did indeed pay off.