 "Rough road for Jagan Reddy")
The less-than-optimal performance by the Y S Rajashekhar Reddy Congress (YSR Congress) in both the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections will raise several questions about the political and legal future of Jagan Mohan Reddy.
Jagan Mohan Reddy's party is leading in 43 Assembly constituencies and has won 26. In the 175-member Assembly, this is not enough for Reddy to form a government. In Lok Sabha seats, too, out of 25, the YSR Congress has won just one but is leading in six.
Given the number of legal cases Reddy is mired in, if the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) puts its mind to it, it can create a lot of problems for him and his family.
Although the YSR Congress will not be in the government, it could have a substantial say in the Assembly as the main opposition, as Seemandhra gets down to creating the infrastructure for a new state.
In Delhi, the YSR Congress will have little or no role: An alliance might have been possible if the BJP had been vulnerable and in need of support. That possibility is ruled out now. So there is very little room left for power arbitrage by Reddy.
What could happen, however, is attempts by the TDP to break away sections of the YSR Congress so that its power is whittled away. This is a long process and could take time.
The party is unlikely to get any help or cooperation from the Congress, with which its estrangement is too deep to be repaired. All Reddy expected, when he met Congress President Sonia Gandhi after his father died, was that he be made chief minister. Not only did the Congress declined this request but also turned him and the family away. That is not a snub Reddy will forget easily.
In Seemandhra the chances are that Chandrababu Naidu will become chief minister. If he digs out more evidence against Reddy and KVP Ramchandra Rao, erstwhile colleague of Reddy's father, it will take a lot of resolution, grit and determination for the party to survive.
Jagan Mohan Reddy's party is leading in 43 Assembly constituencies and has won 26. In the 175-member Assembly, this is not enough for Reddy to form a government. In Lok Sabha seats, too, out of 25, the YSR Congress has won just one but is leading in six.
Given the number of legal cases Reddy is mired in, if the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) puts its mind to it, it can create a lot of problems for him and his family.
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It is quite clear that one reason for Reddy's poor performance is the last-minute electoral tie-up between the TDP and the Bharatiya Janata Party. This was a major force-multiplier for the TDP, as it had been in the past when Naidu allied with the Atal Bihari Vajpayee-led BJP.
Although the YSR Congress will not be in the government, it could have a substantial say in the Assembly as the main opposition, as Seemandhra gets down to creating the infrastructure for a new state.
In Delhi, the YSR Congress will have little or no role: An alliance might have been possible if the BJP had been vulnerable and in need of support. That possibility is ruled out now. So there is very little room left for power arbitrage by Reddy.
What could happen, however, is attempts by the TDP to break away sections of the YSR Congress so that its power is whittled away. This is a long process and could take time.
The party is unlikely to get any help or cooperation from the Congress, with which its estrangement is too deep to be repaired. All Reddy expected, when he met Congress President Sonia Gandhi after his father died, was that he be made chief minister. Not only did the Congress declined this request but also turned him and the family away. That is not a snub Reddy will forget easily.
In Seemandhra the chances are that Chandrababu Naidu will become chief minister. If he digs out more evidence against Reddy and KVP Ramchandra Rao, erstwhile colleague of Reddy's father, it will take a lot of resolution, grit and determination for the party to survive.