 "The paradox of courtship and marginalisation")
Resigned to political marginalisation, Mohammed Mustafa, a resident of Bihar's Begusarai district, still hopes for a favourable outcome in this election. His hope springs from efforts by political parties to win over a big chunk of Muslim votes before every election.
"Call it indifference or the realisation that the chance of success is quite low, but only a few Muslims are actually interested in becoming part of the political process. All we want is that parties put a premium on securing our votes. And, we vote for parties sensitive to the interests of our community," says Mustafa who works for a finance company in nearby Supaul district.
The Muslim vote can impact outcomes in a number of constituencies. Around 76 districts across India have Muslim populations in excess of half a million. Muslims make up more than half the population in 20 districts and more than a quarter in 38 others. (Click for detailed story)
The prospect of a decisive edge in over 100 constituencies nudges political parties towards pro-Muslim rhetoric. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Rajnath Singh has, thus, offered to apologise for any past mistakes by his party. The Congress keeps harping on the BJP's communal agenda. But when it comes to nominating candidates, Muslims do not get their share.
In 2009, the Congress nominated 31 Muslim candidates (3.73 per cent) and the BJP four. Of the 402 candidates announced by the Congress for the 2014 polls, 29 are Muslim. The BJP's scorecard reads six of 400. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fared better, fielding 37 Muslims in a list of 339.
"The blame should be shared by the leadership, as well as the community. People deserve the leadership they choose," Ishrat Aziz, a former diplomat, says philosophically to explain Muslim under-representation.
Few candidates mean fewer MPs. A study by Christophe Jaffrelot, a French political scientist, concludes that "except in 1980, when the percentage of Muslim MPs in the Lok Sabha at nine per cent was roughly comparable to the percentage of Muslims in the Indian population (11.4 per cent, according to the 1981 Census), the community has always been under-represented in Parliament". In the 1990s, the percentage of Muslim MPs fell to nearly five per cent. The situation improved in 2004 with Muslim representation going up to nearly six per cent but dipped to 5.52 per cent in 2009.
Muslims do not vote as a bloc, contrary to the popular perception. Non-Muslims won five of the 16 Muslim-majority constituencies in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. "There is nothing called the Muslim vote bank. Data clearly show the community votes very much like any other electoral group. Who the community votes for depends on a host of local, regional and national factors," says Sanjeer Alam of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Taking the point forward, Manindra Nath Thakur of Jawaharlal Nehru University says, "The presence of multiple candidates in constituencies with a sizeable presence of Muslims only shows the community, too, has its fair share of division along caste and class lines."
Under-represented they may be but Muslims are enthusiastic voters. Their voting percentage is higher than most other social groups. Whom they voted for in the past can offer hints on how they are likely to vote this time. According to a CSDS analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress got more Muslim votes than the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress' vote share among Muslims climbed over 10 percentage points and the Samajwadi Party's share fell almost 16 percentage points. That could be a reason for the Congress' performance in the state in the previous elections. Muslims constitute over 18 per cent of the electorate of Uttar Pradesh. "There is no Muslim vote bank in the country. The data clearly suggests only 32 per cent voted for the Congress in the 2009 elections. It means 68 per cent are divided," says political analyst and psephologist Jai Mrug.
In West Bengal, where the Congress in alliance with the Trinamool Congress did well in 2009, they bagged almost 60 per cent of the Muslim vote. The Left parties had less than 40 per cent. Almost a fourth the state's electorate is Muslim and the community does impact electoral outcomes. In Bihar, too, where the Congress suffered reverses, the party managed more Muslim votes in 2009 than Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal, according to CSDS.
The political marginalisation of Muslims accompanies economic deprivation. Data from the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) and the Sachar panel, set up in 2005 to review the socio-economic development of Muslims, show the community lags on all indicators.
An average Muslim boy in the 7-16 age bracket is likely to receive three years and four months mean-years of schooling against the national average of four years. A quarter of Muslim children in the 6-14 age bracket have either never attended school or have dropped out. Muslims constituted 1.3 per cent of those studying in the Indian Institutes of Management in 2004-05, 1.7 per cent in the Indian Institutes of Technology and a mere four per cent in top medical colleges.
The community had 4.9 per cent of all government jobs, 7.2 per cent in public undertakings, 2.2 per cent in banking and 4.7 per cent in universities. The NSSO estimates an average Muslim spent Rs 980 a month in 2009-10, against the national average of Rs 1,128.
Some observers feel the deprivation might need individual, as opposed to communal, solutions. "We should neither seek nor accept reservation. We want a right to life and property and a level playing field," says Aziz. He adds the only way Muslims, and for that matter any deprived section of society can be lifted, is by simply following the principle that "no talent should be allowed to be left behind".
Not everyone share's Mustafa's hope from this election. "Muslims have voted in large numbers without being fully aware of the power of their vote," says Ijazur Rehman, a resident of Bihar's Siwan district, who has studied at Jawaharlal Nehru University and supports the Left. Muslim deprivation is a function of the lack of a middle class and leadership the community has had in the past, he adds.
"Call it indifference or the realisation that the chance of success is quite low, but only a few Muslims are actually interested in becoming part of the political process. All we want is that parties put a premium on securing our votes. And, we vote for parties sensitive to the interests of our community," says Mustafa who works for a finance company in nearby Supaul district.
The Muslim vote can impact outcomes in a number of constituencies. Around 76 districts across India have Muslim populations in excess of half a million. Muslims make up more than half the population in 20 districts and more than a quarter in 38 others. (Click for detailed story)
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In terms of Lok Sabha seats, there are 15 Muslim majority constituencies. In another 38, the percentage of Muslim voters ranges from 30 to 50 per cent. Muslims can decisively impact the outcome in these 53 seats and can tilt the balance in 49 others, where they make up 20-30 per cent of the electorate. Altogether, 102 Lok Sabha constituencies (see chart) have Muslim populations in excess of 20 per cent; yet the 15th Lok Sabha had no more than 30 Muslim members.
The prospect of a decisive edge in over 100 constituencies nudges political parties towards pro-Muslim rhetoric. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) President Rajnath Singh has, thus, offered to apologise for any past mistakes by his party. The Congress keeps harping on the BJP's communal agenda. But when it comes to nominating candidates, Muslims do not get their share.
In 2009, the Congress nominated 31 Muslim candidates (3.73 per cent) and the BJP four. Of the 402 candidates announced by the Congress for the 2014 polls, 29 are Muslim. The BJP's scorecard reads six of 400. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) fared better, fielding 37 Muslims in a list of 339.
"The blame should be shared by the leadership, as well as the community. People deserve the leadership they choose," Ishrat Aziz, a former diplomat, says philosophically to explain Muslim under-representation.
Few candidates mean fewer MPs. A study by Christophe Jaffrelot, a French political scientist, concludes that "except in 1980, when the percentage of Muslim MPs in the Lok Sabha at nine per cent was roughly comparable to the percentage of Muslims in the Indian population (11.4 per cent, according to the 1981 Census), the community has always been under-represented in Parliament". In the 1990s, the percentage of Muslim MPs fell to nearly five per cent. The situation improved in 2004 with Muslim representation going up to nearly six per cent but dipped to 5.52 per cent in 2009.
Muslims do not vote as a bloc, contrary to the popular perception. Non-Muslims won five of the 16 Muslim-majority constituencies in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. "There is nothing called the Muslim vote bank. Data clearly show the community votes very much like any other electoral group. Who the community votes for depends on a host of local, regional and national factors," says Sanjeer Alam of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Taking the point forward, Manindra Nath Thakur of Jawaharlal Nehru University says, "The presence of multiple candidates in constituencies with a sizeable presence of Muslims only shows the community, too, has its fair share of division along caste and class lines."
Under-represented they may be but Muslims are enthusiastic voters. Their voting percentage is higher than most other social groups. Whom they voted for in the past can offer hints on how they are likely to vote this time. According to a CSDS analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress got more Muslim votes than the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The Congress' vote share among Muslims climbed over 10 percentage points and the Samajwadi Party's share fell almost 16 percentage points. That could be a reason for the Congress' performance in the state in the previous elections. Muslims constitute over 18 per cent of the electorate of Uttar Pradesh. "There is no Muslim vote bank in the country. The data clearly suggests only 32 per cent voted for the Congress in the 2009 elections. It means 68 per cent are divided," says political analyst and psephologist Jai Mrug.
In West Bengal, where the Congress in alliance with the Trinamool Congress did well in 2009, they bagged almost 60 per cent of the Muslim vote. The Left parties had less than 40 per cent. Almost a fourth the state's electorate is Muslim and the community does impact electoral outcomes. In Bihar, too, where the Congress suffered reverses, the party managed more Muslim votes in 2009 than Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal, according to CSDS.
The political marginalisation of Muslims accompanies economic deprivation. Data from the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) and the Sachar panel, set up in 2005 to review the socio-economic development of Muslims, show the community lags on all indicators.
An average Muslim boy in the 7-16 age bracket is likely to receive three years and four months mean-years of schooling against the national average of four years. A quarter of Muslim children in the 6-14 age bracket have either never attended school or have dropped out. Muslims constituted 1.3 per cent of those studying in the Indian Institutes of Management in 2004-05, 1.7 per cent in the Indian Institutes of Technology and a mere four per cent in top medical colleges.
The community had 4.9 per cent of all government jobs, 7.2 per cent in public undertakings, 2.2 per cent in banking and 4.7 per cent in universities. The NSSO estimates an average Muslim spent Rs 980 a month in 2009-10, against the national average of Rs 1,128.
Some observers feel the deprivation might need individual, as opposed to communal, solutions. "We should neither seek nor accept reservation. We want a right to life and property and a level playing field," says Aziz. He adds the only way Muslims, and for that matter any deprived section of society can be lifted, is by simply following the principle that "no talent should be allowed to be left behind".
Not everyone share's Mustafa's hope from this election. "Muslims have voted in large numbers without being fully aware of the power of their vote," says Ijazur Rehman, a resident of Bihar's Siwan district, who has studied at Jawaharlal Nehru University and supports the Left. Muslim deprivation is a function of the lack of a middle class and leadership the community has had in the past, he adds.