 "10 reasons why the BJP lost the Delhi elections to AAP")
1. Consolidation of anti-BJP vote
On election day, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) workers had mobilised its support base. They were, however, surprised to find several committed Sangh Parivar voters telling them how they had voted for AAP. According to Sangh Parivar workers, it wasn't an election that represented any class divide. There were many from BJP's middle class vote bank that voted for AAP, wanting a credible "counter-balance" to a strong BJP. In the end, the AAP secured more than 50% of all votes polled.
2. BJP, RSS workers unhappy at top down decision making
Not many tears are being shed within the BJP or RSS in Delhi. Democracy has been a basic tenet of the BJP's DNA - of collective decision making. But increasingly the party had felt suffocated at the top down decision making and election strategising. They were also repeatedly reminded how the Narendra Modi - Amit Shah team had nearly never lost an election. Neither BJP nor RSS workers of Delhi were taken into confidence when the party made key decisions. Old timers like Harsh Vardhan were repeatedly insulted. BJP and RSS workers fumed when the party gave a ticket to two-time Congress MP Krishna Tirath, or brought in an 'outsider' in Kiran Bedi as the party's chief ministerial candidate. In that sense, this may be as much a victory of Kejriwal, but defeat of Modi-Shah style of leadership.
3. Government servants pulled the plug
Delhi's sizeable babu population, or government officials, haven't taken the diktats on efficiency and punctuality kindly. It had supported Modi's vision of development. But the so called 'surprise visits' by ministers have been found to be insulting. There have also been apprehensions that the Centre might reduce the retirement age to 58, as the BJP's Manohar Lal Khattar government has done in Haryana.
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4. Purvanchalis ignored, Dalit outreach cosmetic
The BJP completely ignored the sizeable vote of the purvanchalis, or those from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Only two of its candidates have roots in that region, while over a dozen AAP candidates hail from the region. Similarly, the Dalit outreach was cosmetic. BJP Delhi unit president Satish Upadhyay and HRD minister Smriti Irani's efforts at 'swachha' campaign were exposed as mere photo opportunities, where streets were deliberately littered before they arrived, broom in hand.
5. AK woos traders, promises lowest VAT
It was yet another of BJP's strategies that backfired. Kejriwal told a meeting with traders how he himself was a baniya (from the trader caste) and understood their concerns. The BJP said Kejriwal was resorting to caste politics. But the shoe was on the other foot when BJP issued an advertisement that stated how Kejriwal belonged to an “anarchist gotra”. The AAP seized the opportunity, claiming Kejriwal's “Agarwal” gotra – to which many traders belong – had been insulted.
The AAP manifesto also promised the lowest Value Added Tax and an end to Inspector Raj. The AAP's 49-day government had shown its business-friendly side by reducing corruption, and asking its excise department to reduce their raids on traders.
6. BJP’s negative campaign
A month ago, on January 10, Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off BJP’s election campaign from Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan. This public meeting of the prime minister, surprisingly, went to boost AAP’s prospects. It was here that Modi made his first scathing attack on arch rival Arvind Kejriwal, the national convenor of AAP, dismissing him as an “anarchist” who should join the “Naxals”.
Kejriwal reminded Delhi’s citizens of Modi’s barbs during each of his public addresses after this. The language used by Modi were not becoming of the country’s prime minister, he said. “The prime minister launched an attack on me in a rally, saying I am a Naxal. Am I a Naxal? Do I need to go to jungle? Does this kind of language suit him?” Kejriwal responded on January 11 at a fundraising event in Wazirpur constituency.
7. Declaring CM candidate
In earlier Assembly elections since assuming charge at the Centre in May last year (Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Jammu & Kashmir), BJP had not named any chief ministerial candidate. It mostly rode on Prime Minister Modi’s success at the Centre. However, for the Delhi election, the party felt the need to have a face other than Modi — as Kejriwal had made it a personality battle — and in came former IPS officer Kiran Bedi. In many ways, this was seen as BJP succumbing to pressure from AAP, which had gone public with senior leader Jagdish Mukhi’s name as BJP’s possible CM.
8. Kiran Bedi
Some political commentators saw Bedi’s entry as a masterstroke. They felt Bedi, with her clean image and roots in the same civil rights movement (spearheaded by Anna Hazare) as Kejriwal, could be could counter to AAP’s challenge. However, the AAP leadership remained confident this would not dent its prospects, as the move was too late.
“Of course, she is the strongest face put up by BJP so far. But it’s too late for such a move. AAP has gained a lot of traction in Delhi now,” AAP spokesperson Atishi Marlena said. AAP also felt Bedi's induction would lead to infighting within BJP, making matters worse. It was Bedi as Modi’s ‘insurance policy’. A former no-nonsense cop, Bedi struggled to find her feet in the political arena, and this was evident in her public pronouncements.
9. BJP’s full machinery
To counter the AAP, BJP gave a mega push to its campaign by fielding 100 Members of Parliament and almost all of its central government ministers in the 70 constituencies of Delhi. This gave AAP another reason to slam the BJP. “Dirty tricks, masterstrokes, 120 MPs, entire cabinet, big money, Modi rallies — nothing working. The people of Delhi have made up their minds,” AAP leader Mayank Gandhi had said on Twitter last week.
Meanwhile, Kejriwal continued to highlight the issues of water, electricity, price rise and woman safety during his jan sabhas (town hall meetings), and also kept on reminding the public of the BJP top leaders’ jibes at him.
10. Infighting and low morale
BJP’s Delhi unit seemed ill-prepared to face AAP’s return. Bedi’s induction at the last moment led to infighting among leaders, and this went on to benefit AAP. As the election day neared, the BJP cadre looked pale on Delhi’s streets. “Earlier, at least we used to see BJP volunteers campaigning hard. It lost steam as the elections neared, as if they had already lost,” said Umesh Singh, an AAP volunteer who came from Varanasi to campaign for the party.