BJP to return to power in UP with significant drop in seats: Survey

BJP and its alliance partners are likely to get seats in a range of 212 to 224 in the 403-member UP Assembly, says ABP News-CVoter survey

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to return to power in the 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, though with significant reduction in the number of seats that the saffron party is expected to win, as per the third ABP News-CVoter Battle for the States Tracker.

The survey findings also suggest that the electoral contest in India's politically most significant state is getting bipolar and the fight is mainly between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party (SP). Other political players in the state -- Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress -- appear to be relegated to margins in the electoral contest.

The current projections are based on CVoter daily tracking poll conducted from November 13 to December 9 among 18+ adults, including likely voters.

As for the methodology and survey details, the survey reached out to a total of approximately 92,000+ persons across five states (UP, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa). It was conducted through CATI (telephonic survey). The same is also expected to have a margin of error of ±3 to ±5 per cent and may not necessarily have factored in all the criteria.

As per the findings of the poll, the ruling BJP in alliance with it its coalition partners is expected to grab 40.4 per cent of the votes in the Assembly polls scheduled to be held early next year.

Notably, the saffron party has continuously maintained its vote share of more than 40 per cent in the past few elections in the state. In 2017, the party had garnered 41.4 per cent votes polled in the state.

As for the vote share of the other political players in the state, while the vote share of SP is expected to witness a jump of 10 per cent from 23.6 per cent in 2017 to 33.6 per cent in 2022, the vote share of BSP is likely to witness a slump of 9 per cent from 22.2 per cent in 2017 to 13.2 per cent in 2022.

The country's grand old party -- the Congress, out of power in the state since 1989 -- is expected to get 7.3 per cent votes. The party had secured 6.3 per cent votes in 2017.

Translated into seats, the BJP and its alliance partners are likely to get seats in a range of 212 to 224 in the 403-member UP Assembly.

Though the BJP and its alliance partners will witness a dip of almost 100 seats from the figures of 325 they had won in 2017, the coalition is expected to cross the majority mark comfortably.

The SP and its allies, emerging as key challenger to the ruling saffron party, are expected to grab 151 to 163 seats.

The survey clearly suggests that the BSP is continuously losing political ground in the state as the party can secure victory on just 12 to 24 seats. The Congress is likely to register victory on 6 to 10 seats.

According to the survey data, incumbent Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is the most preferred choice to retain the top post in the state. In the survey, 41 per cent of the respondents expressed their opinion in favour of the incumbent Chief Minister.

As many as 33.5 per cent of those who were interviewed during the survey said that SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is their preferred choice for the top post, while 15 per cent stated that they want to see BSP supremo Mayawati heading the next government in the state.

Interestingly, only 4.3 per cent of those interviewed during the survey wanted Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi to be the next Chief Minister of the state.

During the survey, majority of the respondents said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has taken the right step by withdrawing the agricultural laws that laid the foundation for the ending of the year-long protest by the farmers.

A total of 52.4 per cent of those who took part in the survey approved the PM's decision to repeal the farm laws, while 30.7 per cent said that instead of withdrawing the agricultural laws, the Central government should have tried to explain the benefits of the agricultural laws to the farming community. A total of 16.9 per cent of the respondents didn't have any opinion on the issue.

Similarly, majority of the respondents said that BJP will benefit from the withdrawal of farm laws in the upcoming Assembly elections. According to the survey data, 60.6 per cent of those who were surveyed in the latest round of Tracker believe that the ruling party will benefit from the decision of the Prime Minister; 39.4 per cent of the respondents said that it will prove to be detrimental to BJP's electoral prospects.

Ahead of the 2022 Assembly polls, Akhilesh Yadav is forging alliances with the smaller parties that are essentially caste-centric with support restricted to a few districts like Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal and O.P. Rajbhar-led Suheldev Bharat Samaj Party (SBSP).

However, according to the survey findings, despite alliances with several smaller parties, Akhilesh Yadav will not be able to dislodge the Yogi Adiyanath government. According to survey data, while 50.9 per cent of the respondents said that Akhilesh Yadav cannot topple Yogi Adityanath through such alliances, 42.7 per cent believe otherwise and 6.3 per cent appeared to be clueless about the prospects of such tie-ups.

The survey data suggests that more number of people believe that the inauguration of the Purvanchal Expressway will benefit the BJP in the upcoming Assembly polls, than those who think that it will not go in favour of the ruling party.

During the survey, while 52.3 per cent of the respondents said that the inauguration of the expressway that sparked off a war of words between the BJP and the SP with both claiming credit for the ambitious project will benefit the ruling party in the 2022 Assembly polls, 47.7 per cent felt otherwise.

Similarly, while 54.3 per cent of those who were interviewed during the survey said that the Bhoomi Poojan of Jewar airport will benefit the BJP in Western Uttar Pradesh, 45.7 per cent believe that it will not benefit the ruling party in the region, which witnessed widespread farmers' protest against the controversial agricultural laws.

The Teachers' Eligibility Test (TET) paper leak case that caused embarrassment to the Yogi Adityanath government can hurt BJP's electoral prospects in the upcoming Assembly polls, as per the survey findings.

During the survey, 55.2 per cent of the respondents said that the TET exam leak case will harm the BJP in the Assembly elections, while 44.8 per cent said that it will have no impact on the party's electoral prospects.