Can Patidar votes really shift the dynamics of Gujarat elections

In 2015, When the Patidar reservation agitation grabbed national headlines, many of us were unaware of the existence of their political might. Gujarat Assembly Elections which are scheduled for December 9 and December 14 have brought this political force to the fore.

Hardik Patel who emerged as a political figure from remnants of the 2015 violence, has steadily scaled the political ladder and has aligned with Congress for the Gujarat Assembly elections 2017, the result of which will be announced on December 18.

While Congress in their election manifesto has promised reservations for the Patel community, BJP is also taking measures to lure the Patel vote in their kitty. The question however remains, why the Patel votes matter so much in the landscape of Gujarat assembly elections?

Amit Shah’s rally in November of 2016 was interrupted when some disgruntled young members of the Patidar community flung chairs at the venue and Amit Shah had to be escorted out of the venue. This incident reaffirmed the fact that the traditionally a BJP vote bank, Patel are not happy the way the state is being governed.

Patels constitute around 15-16 per cent of Gujarat’s population and hold influence in at least 60 seats in the state assembly. Two-thirds of Patidars from Saurashtra belt in South Gujarat which accounts for 48 constituencies, have traditionally voted for BJP since 1995.

In Ghatlodia, which is Anandiben Patel’s constituency, out of some 3 lakh voters, 105,000 are Patels. Caste Politics, which had taken a significant back foot in the previous elections, is much more pronounced and vocal in this season of Gujarat Elections.

Though a significant political force, the Patel vote bank has been divided internally with social hierarchy making the prediction of voting pattern all the more difficult. Well off Patel, Lauve, might still vote for BJP but Patidar’s belonging to the lower economic strata might go with Hardik’s reservation cry. Whoever the Patel community votes for, there is no denying that the Patidar vote bank in Gujarat is a force to reckon with.