Cong performance in state polls may have cost NDA a Rajya Sabha majority

After Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh Assembly elections, the BJP's Rajya Sabha strength might have come down by 10 seats

The passing of the Aadhaar Act by Parliament in 2016 had drawn controversy — the government had chosen to present the Bill in the form of a money Bill, to ensure the Rajya Sabha does not block it. 

The Rajya Sabha, or the council of states, is the upper House of the Indian parliament and is the representative of state interests in the federal system. All major changes in law require Bills to be passed in the Rajya Sabha, and this is where the Narendra Modi government’s Achilles’ heel lay. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) did not have a majority in the upper House. 

The present strength of the Rajya Sabha (including 12 nominated members) is 244. The route to a majority in this house goes through state Assemblies and a party with a national footprint can score big here. Prime Minister Modi and BJP President Amit Shah tried to run a campaign of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’, intended to replace the Congress’ presence across states with the BJP’s. Such a scenario would eventually have given the BJP a good standing in the Rajya Sabha.

Rajya Sabha elections are different

A Rajya Sabha member represents a particular state and is elected by the state legislature. The member’s tenure is six years (unlike five years in the Lok Sabha) and not all members (even from a particular state) are elected at the same time. Rajya Sabha elections for one or the other seat take place each year and, therefore, the House’s composition and party positions also undergo a change as a result. Elections to 16 state Assemblies have been held from 2016 to 2018. If we count the number of MLAs, we find that in these 16 Assemblies the BJP has made a net gain of 300 MLAs (largely thanks to its performance in UP) while the Congress has lost 53 MLAs.

How will the Rajya Sabha look for the BJP and the main Opposition party, the Congress, in the next few years? We take a closer look.

We have focused this analysis on those states where either of the two parties has a presence and is in contention to win Rajya Sabha seats. This reduces the total Rajya Sabha seat numbers in play from 244 to 209 (nominated seats also excluded). These 209 seats are to be decided by 29 different state Assemblies.

But projections cannot be made for these seats, as most of these states will see Assembly elections before some of the Rajya Sabha seats go for reelection. It is therefore, not possible to make projections for some of the 209 seats. For example, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly will vote to elect 31 Rajya Sabha members between 2019 and 2024, but 21 of these elections will take place only after the tenure of the present UP Assembly ends. Hence, we can only make projections for 10 UP Rajya Sabha seats which will go for reelection in 2020. 

Therefore, actual seats where the BJP or Congress may have some chance of getting reelected on the basis of the present-day Assembly position are limited only to 63. These will be spread like this.

Of these 63 seats, the BJP holds 20 seats at present, while the Congress has 23. Twenty seats are held by other parties. Here is a state-wise distribution:

As we can see, 2020 and 2022 are the years when most of the 63 seats will be decided in these state Assemblies. If we do a seat by seat projection for the BJP and Congress in these 63 seats, this is how the positions are likely to be at the end of 2020 and at the end of 2022.

In the year 2020, the Congress’ major loss will come from Assam where it ceded power to the BJP in the previous elections. BJP will make a net gain of 11 over its present position in these seats as it will increase its tally in Assam and Uttar Pradesh.

Effect of three state Assembly results in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh

Thanks to the Congress’ win in these three Assembly elections, it will end up gaining 9 Rajya Sabha positions in these three states by the end of 2022. The gains will come directly from the BJP and will help the Congress reduce its losses in the Rajya Sabha.

While the BJP-led NDA is nearly 30 seats short of a majority in the Rajya Sabha, this position is unlikely to see any fundamental change at least till 2022. Even with a net gain of 9 seats at the end of 2022, the BJP may find that its alliance is way short of the halfway mark in the upper House. The loss of these three states in the Hindi heartland will rankle as it may end up losing 9 seats to the Congress because of that in the coming four years. The Congress’ improved its performance even in the Gujarat Assembly election last year will help it gain one seat at the expense of the BJP. While the BJP gained 300 MLAs in Assembly elections between 2016 and 2018, the loss of Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, and Congress’ improved performance in Gujarat, may have cost it 10 seats. The gains of all the Assembly polls have come to nought with the BJP’s setback in Gujarat and the loss of these three states, as a majority in the Rajya Sabha will remain elusive for it in the near future.

Twitter: @bhayankur