Congress emerges biggest loser in state assembly polls

The dire predictions of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of the "Congress-mukt Bharat" seem to be eerily materializing

When news started trickling in of the crucial Assembly election trends, television reporters waiting at the AICC headquarters at Akbar Road since morning had no takers. Their plight mirrored that of the Grand Old Party: a loss of incumbent governments in Assam and Kerala and even the DMK alliance that Congress was banking on in Tamil Nadu had failed to click. In short, the Congress has emerged the biggest loser in the 2016 Assembly elections. 

The dire predictions of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of a "Congress-mukt Bharat” seem to be eerily materialising. Technically, Congressmen maintain it was the anti-incumbency factor that played against them but concede that the party losing ground nationally is a major cause of concern. What is more worrisome, though, is the storming of the BJP into Congress bastions. 

Not just in Kerala, where the BJP has gained a toehold (leading in 1 seat as per the latest tally), but also in Assam where it has stormed to power, wreaking long term havoc on the Congress prospects in the north east. The ascension of a BJP government in Assam will not just be the gateway for the Modi-led party into the NE, it will also mean the erosion of Congress strongholds in Meghalaya, Mizoram and Manipur. The Congress' claim of being the “true representative” of the hill states in the region appears to be in danger now.  

While the Bihar results of 2015 and the victory of the Grand Alliance had temporarily pumped up the Congress, the 2016 polls have changed all that. In fact, it has brought into sharper focus the need for organisational revival and a re-think of its high command culture. If there’s one man who is being credited for the BJP’s stupendous results in Assam it is Himanta Biswa Sarma, ironically a former Congressmen (and outgoing CM Tarun Gogoi’s former right-hand man), who is anecdotally believed to have been driven into the arms of the BJP by the “arrogance” of vice president Rahul Gandhi.  

No wonder then that Sarma was heard telling a news channel, “Personally its sweet victory for me. Rahul Gandhi humiliated me. Gogoi humiliated me.” Politically he credits the BJP rise to Amit Shah and Modi.   

Interestingly, even as the Congress’ glimmer of hope in Tamil Nadu of making it to power faded, it coincided with a surprising increase in its seat share in West Bengal, leaving the Left far behind. The Left-Congress tie-up there has clearly worked to the benefit of the party. 

What these polls also signify is the loss of connect of the Grand Old Party with the people. Two years after its loss in the 2014 national elections, the long-needed organisational rejig is yet to take place. While factionalism tears apart its state units, its leadership believes that “the Congress is like the Indian elephant, it moves slowly”, showing that it certainly is not in step with a changing India, unlike the BJP which has fire in its belly. The Congress’ complacency is doing it in.