Five states go to Assembly polls today, may tilt balance of power

Elections to the Tamil Nadu (TN), Kerala, and Puducherry legislative Assemblies, the last 40 Assembly constituencies in Assam, and 31 seats in West Bengal on Tuesday hold the key to a possibly decisive change in the balance of power between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and non-BJP Opposition parties.

Kerala represents the biggest challenge for the BJP. Although the party has now entered the political conversation in the state and has a formidable organisational presence, it has only one Member of the Legislative Assembly in the outgoing Assembly. 

Charges of being in league with the ruling Communist Party of India Marxist, or CPI(M), may be fanciful, wrought from the narrative of disgruntled party members who were denied a ticket. But the party has traction in pockets where the Sabarimala issue continues to be discussed feverishly. 

It has to contend with the welfare politics of the outgoing Left Democratic Front as well as its management of the Covid-19 crisis, the welfare of Gulf returnees in the wake of the pandemic, and the crisis of unemployment. Although the issue of corruption in the gold smuggling case and the arrest of the chief minister’s (CM’s) personal staff has infected the campaign, it might not be the game-changer the BJP is hoping it will be. The Congress is working hard to retain its presence, but this election could represent its worst-ever performance.

In TN, the BJP is riding piggyback on the shoulder of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), while the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) has forged a formidable electoral alliance which includes the Congress. 

As this will be the first election that DMK leader Stalin is organising and directing entirely on his own, without his father, veteran M Karunanidhi looking over his shoulder, it will also be his first stab at trying to become CM. The BJP’s main campaign point is the perpetuation of a dynasty: but the DMK is reminding voters about the imposition of ‘Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan’ on TN. No matter who forms the government, it is vote share that is going to tell the real story.

In neighbouring Puducherry, a Congress government in power seems all set to be dislodged with former Congressman N Rangasamy’s All India N Rangasamy Congress having done a deal with the BJP, which had broken the Congress on the eve of the elections and dislodged sitting CM Velu Narayanasamy from power. The BJP has little or no presence in the Union Territory and is relying on former Congressmen to help it make the cut. The party’s claim is bolstered by the presence of the AIADMK in the alliance: and the grouping is expected to make the Congress sweat. If it is a touch-and-go result, three strong Independents who are expected to win, could become kingmakers. This will make the role of Lieutenant Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan crucial to the mix.

With this round of elections, the poll to the legislative Assembly of Assam will have concluded. Polls on Tuesday are due in the Bodo areas and the Bodoland People’s Front, an erstwhile ally of the BJP has joined hands with the Congress this time. 

This phase of the election is crucial for the Opposition Congress as it reckons it has an edge in the Bodo areas. On the other hand, the BJP has been working hard to reinforce its presence in these seats.

In Bengal, Tuesday’s election will see urban areas like Hooghly, Diamond Harbour, and Howrah go to the polls. Thirty-one seats across three districts will vote. The key constituencies include Tara­ke­shwar in Hooghly, where former Rajya Sabha Member of Parliament Swapan Dasgupta is contesting an Assembly election for the first time against Trinamool Congress (TMC) candidate Ramendu Singha Roy. 

At Raidighi, former minister and senior CPI(M) leader Kanti Ganguly is contesting against TMC candidate Alok Jaldata. West Bengal Speaker Biman Banerjee is contesting in Baruipur Paschim, whereas prominent TMC youth leader Saokat Molla is contesting from the Canning Purba Assembly segment. Infiltration and migration are the two issues that have figured in the political discourse prominently.

While the election process in Bengal will trundle on, the polls in the other states will mean the end of a nail-biting campaign and the agonising wait for May 2 when the results will be announced.