 "Four reasons why BJP dreads a defeat in Delhi")
Delhi is a quasi state. Its chief minister has no power over city’s law and order, while its Assembly cannot legislate on important subjects like land. But the importance of the 2015 Delhi polls lies in its potential impact on national politics. Here are a few reasons why the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fears a defeat in the capital.
1. ‘AK-49’
BJP fears that a defeat will revitalise anti-Narendra Modi forces. At present, with successive Assembly victories and reduced oil prices, opposition to the BJP-led central government has been subdued on the ground. Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) Convenor Arvind Kejriwal, if he forms a government in Delhi, could emerge as a rival leader to Modi in the years to come. At his election rally in Jammu during the Lok Sabha elections, Modi had termed Kejriwal “AK-49” — Arvind Kejriwal of the 49-day government fame. The allusion to assault rifle Kalashnikov might come to haunt BJP this time.
A defeat will also be seen as an end to the so-called ‘Modi wave’, and dent BJP President Amit Shah’s image of a master strategist.
2. Impact on Bihar, Punjab and UP
The Delhi elections will have a bearing on coming Assembly elections in other states. In most of these, BJP’s main rival will not be the discredited Congress but a host of regional parties, likely to pose a tougher challenge. BJP’s recent poll victories in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir and Haryana had come against the incumbent Congress governments or those where the Congress was part of the governing coalition.
But all states due for elections in the next two years, barring Assam, have non-Congress parties in power. The controversy over an “immigrant” tag to describe those from northeastern states in BJP’s manifesto has become an embarrassment for the party, with several protests breaking out in Assam.
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Elections in Bihar are due in November. West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Assam go to polls by mid-2016. BJP has, traditionally, not performed very well in some of these states. But it hopes to replicate its Lok Sabha successes in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. The Delhi result, and the performance of an AAP government, if the Kejriwal-led party comes to power, could affect BJP’s chances in Bihar, UP and Punjab. Hundreds of thousands of people from these three states working and living in Delhi are likely to create a good buzz about AAP back home. Assembly elections to Punjab and Uttar Pradesh are likely in early 2017. All of AAP’s four Lok Sabha seats had come from Punjab in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.
3. Rajya Sabha numbers
Defeats or not-so-handsome victories in these state Assemblies will damage BJP’s hopes to better its numbers in the Rajya Sabha, something it desperately needs for ensuring passage of key legislation.
4. Opposition right under its nose
Privately, both BJP and Congress leaders are wary of AAP and Kejriwal for his “anarchist” politics. Kejriwal and his party, newcomers to the arena of electoral politics, seldom play by the rules of the game. AAP does not carry the baggage of established parties, and can be extremely flexible in its positions on key issues and in its decision-making. Kejriwal has said he could still employ ‘dharna politics’ — as the last resort — as Delhi’s chief minister.