Grand Alliance gets 4-2 lead in Bihar election exit polls

Four of the six pollsters say close fight with Grand Alliance nosing ahead; BJP stations senior leaders in Patna to reach out to smaller parties

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Thursday prepared to send some of its senior leaders to Patna in anticipation that the verdict of the Bihar Assembly polls on Sunday is likely to be a close one, where the party will not only need to keep its flock together, but might need to reach out to  smaller parties to make a stab at forming the government. Parliamentary Affairs Minister Venkaiah Naidu might be deputed to camp in Patna, along with seniors such as Anantha Kumar already there, on the day the results come out.

Exit polls, released after the conclusion of the fifth and final phase of voting, came out with mixed forecasts. Four of the six exit polls seemed to agree the results would be too close to call but that the Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance of Rashtriya Janata Dal, Janata Dal (United) and Congress has an edge. Today’s Chanakya predicted a sweep by the BJP-led alliance, projecting its victory in 155 of the 243 seats, while a NewsX-CNX poll forecast nearly 140-seats for the Grand Alliance.

Publicly, leaders of the two alliances exuded confidence that their alliance will win a majority after the polling ended for the remaining 57 of the 243 seats on Thursday. With nearly 60 per cent voter turnout, the fifth phase — covering the Seemanchal area — recorded the highest voting percentage of the long drawn and bitterly contested elections.

The ABP News survey, which released seat tally for all five phases separately, predicted that the clincher in the eventual seat tally of the two alliances was likely to be JD(U)-led alliance’s comprehensive victory in the fifth phase, which were predominantly Muslim areas.

In the 2010 assembly elections, the JD(U) and BJP had contested in alliance and won 115 and 91 seats, respectively, while RJD had won 22 and the Congress four seats. The BJP-led NDA had won 31 of the 40-seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

In the event of a decisive victory of the Grand Alliance, the immediate casualty will be the winter session of Parliament where a reinvigorated Opposition will demand even more forcefully that its point of view be taken on board in legislation such as the goods and services Act, the proposed bankruptcy code and other reforms.

Economic reform that needs legislative sanction may have to be put off, not just in the Rajya Sabha where the Opposition does not have a majority but also in the Lok Sabha where despite having the numbers, the government will be somewhat on the defensive.

The Samajwadi Party that withdrew from the Grand Alliance during the Bihar election could be forced to reconsider its stance if the mahagathbandhan proves to be victorious in Bihar. Moreover, the fulcrum of Opposition unity could shift from the Congress to other parties, including the JD(U), leading to recalibrated equations.

It is also possible that the mantle for negotiation with other anti-BJP forces like the Trinamool Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party could fall on Nitish Kumar, who has been hailed by both as a visionary leader.