Gujarat polls: 2nd phase polling today, fight shifts to urban centres

Urban centres like Ahmedabad and Vadodara have traditionally been the ruling BJP's strongholds

Voting for the second phase in Gujarat Assembly elections commences on Thursday. This phase takes the battle to the urban centres of Ahmedabad and Vadodara, which have traditionally been the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s strongholds.

The voting follows a high-octane campaigning that ended on Tuesday with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's showstopper act of flying in a single-engine amphibious aircraft from Ahmedabad's Sabarmati riverfront.

Around 93 assembly constituencies (ACs) across 14 districts, including Ahmedabad, Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Vadodara, will see voting from 8 am onwards till 5 pm in the second and final phase. The eligible voter-base in the second phase stands at 22.2 million.

Apart from the major urban areas, voting will also take place in the North Gujarat districts, which have been dominated by both other backward class (OBC) and Patidar community leaders Alpesh Thakor and Hardik Patel.

Of the total 93 seats in the second phase, roughly 54 are considered rural while rest 39 are believed to be urban areas, say political observers and psephologists. 

In fact, in 2012, BJP had won 16 out of 33 seats in North Gujarat, 24 out of 43 in Central Gujarat and 15 out of 19 in Ahmedabad. Congress, on the other hand, had managed 17 seats each in North or Central Gujarat regions and 4 in Ahmedabad. In terms of voter turnout, Sabarkantha had seen the highest at 76.69 per cent among the districts in the second phase of polls in 2012, while Ahmedabad had seen the lowest at 69.16. 

As against 977 candidates in the first phase, the second phase will see in all 851 candidates being fielded by various parties. Key candidates, however, to look out for will be Gujarat's deputy chief minister Nitin Patel who is contesting from Mehsana as well as OBC leader Alpesh Thakor from Radhanpur, Dalit leader Jignesh Mevani from Vadgam and Congress leader Siddharth Patel from Dabhoi. 

Viramgam, a Congress stronghold has seen an old party hand Jayshreeben Patel shift camps to BJP. In fact, BJP had lost two adjacent seats of Sanand, Viramgam in the auto-belt of Gujarat in the previous elections in 2012.

Polling officials checking the electronic voting machines (EVMs) in Ahmedabad on Friday, a day before the second phase of the Gujarat Assembly elections (Photo: PTI)

First time voters

The elections in Gujarat this time are highly polarising, says psephologist Abhay Kumar. It is either the Congress or the BJP. With around 1.2 million new and first time voters this time, the youth factor is sure to play a role. For that matter, around 60 per cent of the total 43.3 million voters in Gujarat are under 40 years of age. 

Kumar feels that having a chief minister face for Gujarat elections could have helped to influence this young voter. 

Kumar said: "The Congress Party is losing election after election in states especially in Gujarat. The Congress Party should take lesson from its strings of debacles and take the doughty step of choosing a CM nominee. The Congress Party is losing in states like MP, Chhattisgarh while it is cashing on the anti-incumbency in Kerala, Rajasthan & HP by naming a CM in pre-poll stage. The step will open a new possibility for the Congress Party besides a reason to save Rahul Gandhi in case of unsatisfactory performance." 

For instance, for Deep Lakhiani, a first time voter still in his teens, who has been "reading up all on the Internet and social media", the development plank rings a better tone than casteism. "There are parties who are contesting on the basis of caste which I believe will be detrimental for the state in the long run. I would rather go with those who have done some work on development in the recent past," said Lakhiani.

Political pundits like Vidyut Joshi, however, point out that the three youth leaders (Alpesh Thakor, Hardik Patel and Jignesh Mevani) and their respective mass movements would have an impact on the young voters' minds. "Had it not been for these three recent movements, most of the young vote would have gone to the BJP. But, today's youth wants jobs, affordable education and they are influenced by these youth leaders," Joshi says. 

Historically, the youth and middle-aged have voted for BJP. The Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey findings show that in 2012 Assembly polls, 52 per cent of the voters under 25-years of age voted for the BJP. This was higher than 49 per cent of voters under 25-years in 2007 who had voted in favour of BJP. In the 26-35 year age group, the BJP vote share dipped from 49 per cent in 2007 to 48 per cent in 2012. 

Independent candidates

The other section to look out for this election are the independent candidates. As against 424 candidates for 89 seats in the first phase, the second phase will see 350 independents contest for 93 seats. Apart from the independent ones, the major parties like BJP and Congress have fielded 93 and 91 candidates, followed by BSP (75) and NCP (28), among others.

Congress has been more wary of the independent candidates than the BJP, with the former going on to state that the independents ate around 12 per cent of its votes in the previous 2012 elections. In 2012, independent candidates had a vote share of 5.83 per cent, while BJP and Congress had seen 47.85 per cent and 38.93 per cent, respectively.

Joshi felt that in seats where the independent candidate is one who was aspiring for a ticket from the party but eventually lost out, the candidate would surely have an impact on the vote share. "These candidates, who are perhaps popular or known faces locally, would take some votes with them, at least 4,000-5,000 votes. This would either impact the Congress or the BJP depending on the seat," Joshi explained. 

Kumar pointed out that usually in 2.5-3 per cent seats, there is usually an assessment error by a political party. "It is in these seats that the rival factor plays out. In others, independents are unlikely to make much impact."

However, it needs to be mentioned here that in 2012, only one independent candidate went on to win an assembly seat from Vadodara.

Meanwhile, the first phase of the Gujarat assembly elections saw a final voter turnout of 66.75 per cent, as released by the Election Commission (EC) on Sunday, as against the record first phase turnout of 70.75 per cent in 2012 elections.

The first phase of Gujarat polls saw 89 of the 182 constituencies in the state voting on Saturday, December 9 to decide the fate of 977 candidates. However, later polling in six booths including Dhunada, Maanpar, Bandhaarda, Gaangda, Chorwad and Chanod were cancelled by EC, with re-polling set to take place on Thursday during the second phase.