Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections: Small constituencies, but big issues

Eighty per cent of the (Congress) rebels have opted not to file their nomination. But can the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) make the same claim?” asked Rajiv Shukla, the Congress person in charge of the elections — on November 12 — to the 68-member Himachal Pradesh Assembly.
 

As campaigning in this small hill state reaches a crescendo, all parties are assessing the damage the rebels could do to their prospects, while putting their best foot forward in the campaign.
 

Anurag Thakur, Union minister for youth and sports and information and broadcasting, was frank and honest in his assessment of the damage rebels can do. He told local reporters in Shimla: “The ticket-distribution mechanism in the BJP is very different from that in other parties. It’s based on so many factors, multiple surveys, and winnability. It’s true this time that a lot of rebels have filed their nomination papers. Many have been persuaded but there are some who did not withdraw from the 

contest. The high command is certainly aware of it. But, my view is that sometimes rebels also help. This reality can’t be ignored.”
 

The presence of rebels in the field complicates an election that is already too close to call. Like other small states, constituencies in Himachal Pradesh are small, and the margin of victory can number in hundreds rather than thousands of votes. In the 2017 Assembly elections, in 17 seats, the margin of victory was less than 2,000 votes and in five seats it was less than 700.
 

To illustrate, the Congress candidate from the Kinnaur (reserved seat for Scheduled Tribes), Jagat Singh Negi, won by 120 votes in 2017 and 249 voters pressed the NOTA (“none of the above”) button. This time, Negi faces five other contestants: Surat Negi (BJP), Anil Kapoor (Bahujan Samaj Party), Tarsem Singh (Aam Aadmi Party) and former BJP MLA Tejwant Negi, who is contesting as an independent. Similarly, senior Congress leader Asha Kumari won the Dalhousie seat in 2017 by 556 votes (569 voters opted for NOTA). Once again, she faces five rivals.
 

The BJP is not without its problems, either. Former Nalagarh MLA K L Thakur lost to the Congress’s Lakhwinder Rana by 1,242 votes in 2017. Thereafter, Rana switched sides and joined the BJP, which has given him party nomination, triggering protests from the party’s block unit in Nalagarh. Now, buoyed by his supporters, Thakur is contesting as an independent —and putting his all into the campaign as he knows his political future depends on this election. His election posters say it all: “Mera kya kasoor? (what is my fault?) ... Maine school upgrade karwaye … kya ye hai mera kasoor? Hospital mein naye bed sanction karwaye… kya ye hai mera kasoor? Naye college banwaye ... kya ye hai mera kasoor (was it my fault that I got schools upgraded, got sanctioned new beds in hospital, got new colleges)?” said Thakur while listing his works at a public meeting and this has gone viral on the social media. So moved were his supporters that at his nomination ceremony they hoisted him on their shoulders and took him through the constituency. Many of them were seen carrying banners that said: “I am also K L.” In his speech, Thakur said the denial of the ticket to him was not “cheating me but the people of Nalagarh”.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is the wild card. Though its entry into the Himachal Pradesh election scene was accompanied by a lot of fanfare, not much has been heard from the party in recent days.

Locals say issues in the election are many: unemployment, the old pension scheme, development … but they claim there is a performance deficit on the part of the Jairam Thakur government. 

One example is the 84-km-long Kiratpur-Nerchowk four-lane project being carried out by the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) to widen the crucial Chandigarh-Manali road from Kiratpur in Punjab to Kullu in Himachal Pradesh and cut down the distance between these two places. “The ongoing work 4-laning of 48 km long Kiratpur Nerchowk (NH-21) stretch connecting the mesmerising tourist place of Manali, Himachal Pradesh through 05 tunnels and 22 major bridges over river Satluj in the lap of the Himalayas is scheduled to be completed by December 2022. This project will reduce journey time between Kiratpur to Kullu by upto 4 hours. It will boost tourism and ensure prosperity for the people of Himachal Pradesh", tweeted Nitin Gadkari, Union minister for roads, highways and infrastructure, testifying to the importance of the project.

The problem is, the road is still not ready. Work started in November 2013 and was expected to be completed in three years. However, it was delayed due to a financial crunch and finally abandoned by the concessionaire in 2018. The NHAI later took over the project. But the road is unlikely to be completed before 2023, if then.

Kangra district, which sends 16 MLAs and is often described as “the road that leads to Shimla”, has its own complaints. Of all districts in the state, it is Kangra that sends the maximum number of soldiers to the armed forces. The Agnivir scheme has left locals disappointed. Maj. Vijay Mankotia, who at 82 recently left the Congress to join the BJP, was hard put to defend a signature scheme of his new party and, when questioned repeatedly at a press conference, would only say that he thought “the scheme should be reviewed”.

Journalist Sunil Chadha, who is based in Dharamsala, said: “There is a sense of disappointment with the state government among the people of Kangra. The airport that was supposed to come up at Gaggal was shifted to Mandi because that happened to be the chief minister’s home district. There was a long, long delay in the establishment of a central university, which was an election promise in 2017 — it is coming up but considering the land was transferred only six months ago, there is no clarity on when it will be ready. There is frustration over unemployment and government employees are really exercised about the new pension scheme.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to pay one more visit to Himachal Pradesh on November 11 after visiting it over the weekend. Chadha says the he still has the potential to sway public opinion.

“We will have to reassess the mood after he goes back,” he said.