How two steps East, two steps South helped BJP cross the 300 mark

Modi garners nearly 37% votes nationally, courtesy massive gains in West Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka, and Telangana

In an unprecedented electoral performance, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has shed its image as a force limited to the Hindi heartland and western states, and made massive inroads into the east and the south. Apart from the near-clean sweeps in its core regions, the BJP crossed a tally of 300 seats mainly owing to its advances in West Bengal, Odisha and Telangana, and consolidation of its stronghold in Karnataka.

This ensured a resounding majority win for the BJP, balancing out the losses from the Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh. While the BJP contained its loss in UP to nine seats — down to 62 from 71 it had won in 2014 — it gained 34 seats in the four states mentioned, when this paper went to press. This happened courtesy an efficient conversion of vote share to seats in these states.

Nationally, the BJP has garnered over 37 per cent votes in the 2019 polls (according to Business Standard calculations), adding six percentage points to the 31 per cent in 2014. This performance is nearly comparable with Indira Gandhi’s in the 1967-1980 period, when the Congress's vote share hovered between 40 per cent and 43 per cent.

According to provisional data, the Congress garnered just under 20 per cent votes, marginally higher than 19.5 per cent in 2014. Its seat tally remained at 52 at the time of going to press.

The BJP more than doubled its voter base in Bengal, from 17 per cent in 2014, to nearly 40 per cent of the state voting for the saffron party in 2019. This helped the BJP increase its seat tally from 2 to 18. This poses a serious threat to the political ambitions of Mamata Banerjee, the two-time chief minister.

In a saving grace, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) too improved its vote share from 40 per cent to 43.3 per cent. This reduced the damage to the party, though it lost 12 seats.

Both the TMC and the BJP gained vote share by severely denting the support base of the Left. The vote share of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM) plummeted from 23 per cent in 2014, to less than 7 per cent. The BJP ate away half of the Congress's base, too.

In Odisha too, the BJP is now standing neck and neck against the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). The BJP’s vote share in the state jumped from 22 per cent to 38 per cent. In comparison, the vote share of the BJD dropped two percentage points, but remained strong at about 42 per cent.

As a result, the Modi-led BJP poached seven seats from the BJD, and increased its tally to eight. The Congress, which got 26 per cent votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections in Odisha, reduced its influence to about 14 per cent, but won one seat. From 20 seats in 2014, BJD’s tally went down to 12 this time.

The BJP had emerged as the single largest party in Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018, with 36 per cent votes and 104 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, falling marginally short of majority. In 2019, it has now garnered more than 50 per cent vote share in the southern state, winning 25 of the 28 seats.

Here, the BJP severely dented the support base of the Congress, whose vote share dropped significantly from 41 per cent in 2014 general election, to 32 per cent this year. As a result, Karnataka became the playground for Congress's biggest defeat in the country. It lost eight seats, retaining just one in a state where it is in power, in coalition with the Janata Dal (Secular). The JD(S) remained a silent spectator, with a trample damage of losing one seat.

The absence of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) from the contest in Telangana threw up a surprising result. All three parties — BJP, Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi — improved its vote share. But the Congress and the BJP expended its effort in select seats, winning three and four seats, respectively. The BJP nearly doubled its vote share, becoming a formidable saffron force in the state. Though TRS won a landslide in the Assembly elections six months ago, it lost two seats in the Lok Sabha election, reducing its tally to nine.