Importance of swing voters rising in Bihar

If there is an undercurrent against Nitish Kumar, the so-called 'Modi wave', too, is missing

In Kunjeshar village, around 170 km from Patna, Shankar Mahto, 33, and his family had unanimously voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. But this time, the family of 10 farmers is confused and divided. They have to choose between former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and Assembly speaker and sitting legislator Uday Narayan Chaudhary.

The two are contesting from the Maoist-affected Imamganj constituency.

If the Mahtos vote along caste lines on October 16, when polling for the second phase of 32 seats will be held, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) will be their obvious choice. The Mahtos belong to the Koeri community, which accounts for six-eight per cent of the state’s population. Till the last Assembly elections, the community reposed its faith in Kumar.

DECODING THE VOTE BANK

Selecting the candidate, however, is easier said than done. The family is upset with Kumar for forging an alliance with his bête noire and former state chief minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, often accused of misrule during the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)’s reign.

Shankar’s uncle Balkrishan says if Kumar had fought the elections on his own, he would have won easily. “Now, it is different for him and us, too,” he says.

If the Mahtos are unhappy with Kumar’s decision to join hands with Yadav, they have lost faith in Prime Minister Narendra Modi as well. Modi, they say, has failed to deliver on his promises in the past one and a half years. “The current prices of pulses and other commodities are beyond are buying capacity. The Modi government’s decision to increase railway fares has already made our life miserable,” laments Shankar.

In the absence of a robust transport system and poor road conditions, the railways are the state’s lifeline. It is used by thousands of migrants travelling for education and livelihood.

A narrow and worn-out road connects the Mahtos’ village with the dusty localities of Imamganj, where most residents are farmers or labourers. In this constituency, tea, snack and sweet shops dot each side of the road. The election pomp and larger-than-life hoardings of political leaders are missing here, though loudspeakers mounted on mini-trucks relentlessly remind people of the ongoing polls.

Analysts and party leaders say, in a highly polarised election, in which most voters choose leaders along caste lines, it is a set of confused or swing voters, who decide the outcome. In such a scenario, much depends on the image and performance of local candidates. Local issues, such as corruption and availability of basic facilities like ration and kerosene, assume prominence over controversial matters such as a ban on beef or quotas.

For instance, former RJD minister Mundrika Yadav scores an edge over Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RSLP) candidate Pravin Kumar, in terms of popularity in the Jehanabad constituency, some 125 km from Imamganj. “The RSLP leader is new, whereas Yadav is a known name in the constituency. He is a little rough but listens to our problems,” says Parmanand Singh, 55, at Jehanabad’s hospital chowk area, packed with passing trucks, carts, and auto-rickshaws. Patients can be seen seated outside small clinics, medical stores and snack shops, amid flies, stench emanating from open drains and heaps of garbage on the road sides.

Singh, like Mahto, also belongs to the Koeri community. He is open to voting for the RJD candidate. Traditionally the extreme backward classes (EBC), which include the Koeris, have stayed away from the RJD. “Usually, I vote for the candidate who appears to be winning. This time, it is tough to gauge who is winning,” says Kishore Mali, a member of an EBC community.

The voters’ woes have been compounded by a few strong candidates contesting independently.

The state’s womenfolk, constituting 46 per cent of the voting population, hold the key to the elections. But it seems they, too, are undecided. “You tell us who should we vote for? We have not made up our minds,” was the typical response from most women, irrespective of caste and creed. An increase in the turnout of women voters on Monday has made it further difficult for pundits to assess the outcome. Political activists, irrespective of party, don’t appear too confident with this change in political arithmetic either.

Unlike the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, a ‘Modi wave’ is missing on the ground this time. In Gaya district, which has nine Assembly seats, the contest is extremely tight. Apart from the Gaya seat, traditionally a BJP bastion, rebels are trying to spoil the equation. In Bodh Gaya, a reserved constituency, the BJP’s sitting MLA, Shayam Deo Paswan, and his opponent, the RJD’s Sarvajeet Kumar, are from the same caste. Here, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s son-in-law is contesting as an independent.

The situation is similar in the Tikari, Sherghati and Gurua constituencies, where rebels are dimming the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s prospects.

In Rohtas district in south Bihar, it’s the turn of the Grand Alliance to face the wrath of the dissent. In Karagahar, sitting MLA Ramdhani Singh has joined the Samajwadi Party, after the JD (U) had denied him a ticket. Not far, in the Rohtas constituency, the NDA is facing off against Ravi Paswan, son of BJP MP Chhedi Paswan. In Mohania, Paswan’s nephew Chandshekhar Paswan has led to many a headache for NDA candidate Niranjan Ram.