In high-intensity battle, BJP looks to regain ground in key fourth phase

BJP on the other hand, have been rather well attended, with people turning up at these events in cars

It was a festive like situation at a high school ground in Minapur assembly constituency of Muzaffarpur district. There were stalls selling affordable snacks and ice-cream. Makeshift shops selling paan and gutka were doing brisk business. Suddenly the crowd went into a frenzy the moment it saw a helicopter hovering above. "Udankhatola" as they call it, was wildly cheered with chants of "Lalu Yadav zindabad". The cheering suddenly stopped when people came to know that the helicopter was carrying a leader of the other camp and it it had landed at the wrong place, only to take off again within a few minutes. After a temporary hiatus, it was business as usual for another 90 minutes, till Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) leader Lalu Prasad finally arrived to address a large gathering - mostly consisting of other backward classes (OBCs) and Dalits.

The composition of the crowd was more or less the same at Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's rally in Siwan's Mathurapur a day before. Most of the people had cycled their way to the venue. Some of them, however, were fortunate enough to get either a bike ride or came in three-wheelers. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) rallies, on the other hand, have been rather well attended, with people turning up at these events in cars.

To the participants, the contrast seems like a class divide. "What you see here is the rally of the poor. Look at their faces. Look at their expectations from the chief minister. I am a RJD supporter and Nitish Kumar is our leader," says Anawarul Haque, a resident of Siwan who travelled more than 20 kilometres to attend Kumar's rally.

But the rich-poor divide or, as some observers call it, backward class consolidation, is not the only fault line the fourth phase of assembly elections in Bihar have to negotiate. Just a few days before the elections for the 55 seats are to take place, the BJP has put out advertisements in several Hindi newspapers questioning the Nitish Kumar government's alleged attempt to compromise on national security to garner votes from certain sections of the electorate.

Unmoved voters, however, are carefully weighing all options - caste, development model and local candidates -while making up their mind. Alongside every grand narrative is a series of local narratives. Rebels, independents, faulty ticket distribution, emerging caste equations, attendance at big leaders' rallies are some of the issues being discussed at tea shops along highways and in village chaupals.

"It is true that I am a BJP supporter. I attended the Prime Minister's rally and came back very impressed. But I will vote for the Mahagathbandhan this time because the local BJP candidate is no good," says Vijay Singh, pradhan of Baharwa Lakahnsen village, part of Dhaka constituency in East Champaran. The village has a population of 5,500 of which nearly 2,000 are Muslims. It has sizeable chunks of Rajputs, Kurmis, Kushwahas, Brahmins and Mahadalits. Singh claims that a majority of the village is going to go with Nitish-Lalu alliance. Locals here have a lot of praise for Kumar's record as chief minister but are sceptical about voting for him because of his alliance with the RJD.

The fourth phase of elections are considered to be very crucial for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance. Of the 55 seats going to polls on November 1, the NDA had established lead in as many as 53 assembly segments in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP, then in alliance with Kumar's Janata Dal (United) [JD (U)], had done well in the last assembly elections in the region that consists of districts like Siwan, East and West Champaran Sheohar, Sitamarhi Gopalganj and Muzaffarpur.

The two Champarans, also known for their sugar mills, are considered to be BJP's stronghold with a sizeable upper caste population. "If you analyse the profile of candidates put up by all the parties in the two districts, you will realise that rebels and candidates put by the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Jan Adhikar Party are set to harm the NDA more than others," says a Motihari-based journalist working for a leading Hindi daily. He added that by denying tickets to some of the strong contenders and sitting MLAs, the BJP has done itself some harm, a fact acknowledged by a local leader as well. "Local inputs were ignored while deciding party nominees," says a BJP leader. The rebel factor is set to impact the fortunes of the NDA candidates in at least two of the 11 assembly constituencies in Muzaffarpur district as well. The Mahagathbandhan too has its fair share rebels to contend with.

In Siwan, the NDA is hoping a better show as the alliance expects polarisation of the anti-Mohammad Sahabuddin votes in its favour. Sahabuddin, now in jail, represented Siwan in the Lok Sabha as the RJD nominee and is known to have unleashed a reign of terror in the region. Some NDA candidates, however, are expecting a better show on the back of their track record. One such candidate is Devranjan Singh who is contesting Maharajganj constituency as a BJP candidate. "Development is something where there is always some scope to do more and more. I promise to do more if I get another chance," says the doctor-turned politician.

In Sheohar district, other than the NDA and the Mahagathbandhan, some SP candidates too are getting some traction. "While I am a supporter of the Mahagathbandhan, I am going to vote for the SP as the party candidate is a local, whose family has served the constituency well," says a Sheohar resident while sipping his morning tea.

Of the 55 seats in this phase, the BJP has fielded its nominees in 42 seats. Ram Vilas Paswan's party has put up five candidates, while Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samta Party have been allotted four seats each. In the Grand Alliance, the RJD candidates are contesting from 26 constituencies, followed by JD(U) on 21 seats and the Congress has fielded its candidates on 8 constituencies. In these seven districts, an estimated 1.47 crore electorates will decide the fate of 776 candidates.