It's over to show-stoppers for last leg of Lok Sabha polls in Bengal

The seven constituencies of West Bengal going for voting on Monday witnessed a few last-minute rallies and public meetings ahead of the mandatory silent period

As campaigning drew to a close on Saturday for the fifth phase of Lok Sabha elections scheduled for May 6, political parties have moved on to rallies and brainstorming for the next round to be held on May 12.  The seven constituencies of West Bengal going for voting on Monday, from Barrackpur and Howrah to Hooghly and Arambagh, witnessed a few last-minute rallies and public meetings ahead of the mandatory silent period, but the conversation at the various party offices in Kolkata revolved around the star campaigners for the sixth and seventh phases of elections. And a lot of number crunching too.

At a motel in Singur, that came on to the international map after the Tatas decided to set up a factory for their Nano car and their subsequent exit due to political protests over acquisition of 997 acre land, locals are still unable to come to terms with the events of the last decade. But they don’t deny the popularity that West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress founder Mamata Banerjee enjoys, despite holding her responsible for the lost opportunity after Tatas left Singur in October 2008. Bharatiya Janata Party’s claim of getting 23 seats in Bengal is exaggerated, according to 60-year-old Bhairav Nath Chakraborty, who’s known for his knowledge of religion and literature in Singur. ‘’It was a blunder by Didi (Banerjee) but BJP won’t be able to exceed seven to eight seats in the state,’’ he said with some authority.               

Tata Motors had left  Singur to relocate the plant later in Sanand, Gujarat, following then Opposition leader Mamata Banerjee’s support to protesting farmers.

Hooghly’s BJP candidate Locket Chatterjee has been a regular in Singur, making promises to turn around things, though there’s nothing specific on setting up big industry that villagers can recall. Ratna De Nag of TMC too has been aggressive in her campaigns but there’s hardly any reference to Tatas. TMC insiders now point out that the Supreme Court view on land acquisition is not different from what Banerjee had propagated.                

Didi back on the road

Away from Singur, Didi resumed her back to back rallies Saturday afternoon as Fani, the cyclonic storm that had hit  Odisha on Friday, moved towards Bangladesh. The Trinamool supremo had announced halting her campaigns for 48 hours due to the Fani alert, while monitoring the situation from Kharagpur. She combined rallies and padyatras in the sixth phase constituencies of Ghatal and Mednipur, both more than 100 km away from Kolkata. Others leaders in the party too hit the road again to make the best of the remaining campaign season.

In TMC, Banerjee is the public face of the party, quite like Prime Minister Narendra Modi is for BJP. So, she alone is the vote puller for TMC, while film stars as well as veteran politicians such as Yashwant Sinha add to the campaign blitz. But, in other parties, the scene is different.

The Modi, Shah touch

In the BJP headquarters at College Square, Saturday evening was all about planning for a Modi rally next week in Jhargram and Kanthi, about three hours drive from Kolkata. There’s another in Purulia, about six hours’ road journey from Kolkata.  The entire organizational and publicity machinery of BJP has moved to these constituencies readying for election on May 12. BJP president Amit Shah too is slated to come again to Bengal, a state where the party aims to make significant gains this time. In 2014, BJP had got two out of the 42 seats in West Bengal, while TMC won 34, Congress four and CPI-M two.

With no prominent BJP face in Bengal, Modi and Shah have been the campaign stars. Modi has already held around 10 rallies, with around seven more to go. In 2014, the number was just about four. Shah has done around eight rallies, with about five more scheduled including a road show. Analysts say BJP wants to make up in West Bengal for some of its likely losses in Uttar Pradesh and some other heartland states. BJP however has maintained its total national tally would exceed that of 2014.

A new office for BJP

Perhaps in a sign of its better fortunes in Bengal, BJP has already got a new office in South Kolkata’s Hastings. A party spokesperson said it would shift some of the operations, especially the IT wing, to the new office soon. As for the tally, sources close to the BJP said on Saturday evening the party could get 12 seats. Amit Shah had made a forecast of 23 seats from Bengal recently.                                            

Rahul to bring glamour

If the BJP machinery is busy with the national leaders and star campaigners for the next phase, so is Congress. At its Lal Mohan Bhattacharya Road office in Kolkata, party functionaries were busy with publicity material for Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s campaign tour next week to the state. Rahul Gandhi, who’s done campaign in Malda and Raiganj earlier, is now visiting Purulia on May 7. The party has been trying to get Priyanka Vadra for a roadshow in West Bengal, but there’s no confirmation yet.

Sources within Congress are realistic on numbers. ‘’There’s no point in wasting our valuable resource when the chances are not too bright for the party in West Bengal ’’. According to Congress insiders, TMC will get at least 26 to 28 seats out of 42 in the state, while BJP will get in single digits. As for Congress and CPI-M together, the tally won’t cross six, a Congress source admitted. His reason: Congress is a secular party and West Bengal is witnessing politics of polarization or in other words BJP and TMC are splitting the Hindu and Muslim votes.      

The Left view

At the office of CPI-M, which had been in power in West Bengal for 33 years before Banerjee’s TMC stormed in, party men are tight-lipped. The Alimuddin Street office, filled with former CM Jyoti Basu’s pictures and Lal Salam posters, is rather quiet for the charged election season as comrades are busy vetting a list of ‘’very sensitive booths’’. They refused to entertain any media query, on or off record, till Mohd Salim, an MP from West Bengal’s Raiganj, joined in.

‘’I don’t believe in number crunching,’’ he said, but added that TMC’s tally of getting all 42 seats shows the party’s arrogance. He claimed CPI-M would improve its tally from the count of two in 2014, but didn’t give any estimate. ''The CPI-M vote share at 29.7 per cent in 2014 was second biggest after TMC at 39.05 per cent, but our number of seats was lower than Congress which had a vote share of only 9.58 per cent.'' he pointed out.   ''This time it would be much higher,'' he said, adding ‘’it’s a resurgent Left.’’