Karnataka poll: 4 of 7 exit polls bet on BJP; counting of votes on May 15

Exit polls gave the JD (S) nearly two dozen seats or more, which could make it the kingmaker if there is a hung Assembly

Nearly 70 per cent of the 49.6 million electorate in Karnataka voted on Saturday to elect a new Assembly. As the voting ended at 6:30 in the evening, four of the seven polling agencies predicted in their exit polls that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would emerge the single-largest party when votes are counted on Tuesday.

Election Commission officials said the voter turnout could go up to the 71.4 per cent mark recorded in the 2013 Assembly elections. However, the voter turnout wasn’t as healthy as officials had expected in urban areas, particularly Bengaluru.

While most exit polls predicted a hung Assembly with the BJP ahead, two said the BJP would either come very close to or cross the halfway mark of 112 seats, while the India Today-Axis exit poll said the Congress might bag a majority.

No government in Karnataka since the Ramakrishna Hegde-led Janata Party in 1985 has been re-elected.

Some of the exit polls claimed the BJP was likely to win more seats despite a vote share lower than the Congress as it would maximise its wins in its areas of influence.

All exit polls gave the Janata Dal (Secular) nearly two dozen seats or more, which could make it the kingmaker if there is a hung Assembly. 

The BJP and the Congress leaders are in touch with the JD(S) leadership, and have proposed power-sharing scenarios that could be acceptable to party leader and former chief minister H D Kumaraswamy. Both, the BJP and the Congress, ran coalition governments with the JD (S) between 2004 and 2008.

The Congress is open to repeating the formula where the chief minister from either party serves for 2.5 years each, and also recognizes that Kumaraswamy would never agree to sharing power with current chief minister and friend turned foe Siddaramaiah. The Congress is amenable to making home minister R Ramalinga Reddy its chief ministerial nominee if there is a hung Assembly. The BJP, meanwhile, has proposed that it might be open to offering Kumaraswamy the first go at the chief ministerial chair.

Polling was held for 222 of the state's 224 constituencies following the countermanding of election for the Jayanagara seat due to the death of BJP candidate B N Vijaykumar, and deferment of voting for Rajarajeshwari Nagar seat over allegations of electoral malpractices. Over 2,600 candidates are in the fray.

A win for the Congress would boost the party’s morale for the assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram in November-December, and for the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. It would also ensure that the party would not be reduced to ruling only one big state, that of Punjab, in the entire country. Apart from Punjab, Congress has governments in only Puducherry and Mizoram.

A Congress victory would also help the opposition galvanize itself for four Lok Sabha and 10 assembly by-elections in 10 states on May 28, including in electorally crucial Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh. The opposition has also planned series of protests and demonstrations on the issue of agrarian distress on the occasion of the first anniversary of the police firing in Mandsaur, Madhya Pradesh, in which six farmers were killed on June 6, 2017.

A BJP win would bring Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party chief Amit Shah a step closer to achieving their dream of a ‘Congess-mukt’ India. The BJP's victory in Karnataka would also open for it "the gateway to southern India". Currently, the BJP doesn’t have a government in any of the four southern states.

The win is also important for the BJP in the context of 2019. The BJP needs to compensate from other areas the seats that it might lose in its strongholds in northern Indian states, particularly Uttar Pradesh. The Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party showed in Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha by-elections the damage they can cause to the BJP if they were to join forces. A victory in Karnataka would yet again prove PM Modi to be the most charismatic Indian politician of recent times and his party’s biggest match winner.

There were reports of malfunctioning of EVMs from some polling stations, and minor clashes between Congress and BJP supporters. The two parties also accused each other of inducing voters.