Lok Sabha election result big picture: What worked, what did not and why

While the BJP made nationalism the centerpiece of its election campaign in Uttar Pradesh, the opposition banked on consolation of the middle and low-caste votes - the latter did not work

With a saffron tide washing over most of India, the question that needs answering is: What worked and what did not, and why?

Nationalism or ‘rashtra hit’ was the central theme adopted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his Lok Sabha election campaign, especially in Uttar Pradesh. The Opposition adopted middle- and low-caste unity as its central theme in the state against the ‘thakurvad’ of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The former worked, the latter did not, and it is now evident that not just Dalits but also Other Backward Classes (OBCs), including Yadavs, and possibly even some Muslims, voted the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). A vote-share analysis suggests a transfer of votes took place from the Samajwadi Party (SP) to the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) but not vice versa. This could be one reason why a larger proportion of BSP candidates has won rather than SP ones. Obviously, local factors are also to blame. But pending final election data, preliminary analysis suggests there was sabotage within the mahagathbandhan.

Tamil Nadu and Kerala were underperformers for the BJP. This is because of a paradox in Tamil Nadu. There are more temples per capita in Tamil Nadu than anywhere else in the country. The state breaks more coconuts than any other state. But Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan don’t work in Tamil Nadu. Also, the alliance (Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam plus Congress plus smaller parties) proved to be formidable and successful in its leadership transition when the baton of the party passed on from M Karunanidhi to M K Stalin. In some ways, Stalin is possibly the Amit Shah of Tamil Nadu for his knowledge of the party structure, the topography of the state and the intimate understanding of specific problems of each region. The general impression is that BJP will see its Tamil Nadu performance — or lack thereof — and decide to fix this. It will adopt Rajinikanth, push him into floating his party and prepare him — and the state — to fight the next Assembly elections.

Does this election mean the decimation of the Yadav OBCs as a caste in the Hindi heartland? Actually, non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav SCs were assiduously cultivated by the BJP to beat back the maleficent effects of the Yadav-Jatav tie-up of the mahagathbandhan. This means that the BJP has its own OBCs and Dalits now. 

An overwhelming number of tribals have voted for the BJP — this is what helped overturn the verdict in Chhattisgarh where tribals voted in large numbers for the Congress just a few months ago. This time, they voted against the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and parts of Rajasthan as well.

But here’s the paradox: In Punjab, the state which shares a border with Pakistan, has a huge ex-servicemen population, and has reported extensive agricultural distress, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) lost the election, which was won by the Congress. And, what do Punjab and Kerala have in common — nothing except that both have now posted a Congress victory.

Even as speculation over who will be minister and who will be left out grows, it is clear that party president Amit Shah will join the government. He could become defence minister and Nirmala Sitharaman could go to the finance ministry. The post of party president vacated by Amit Shah could be filled by Rajnath Singh or Nitin Gadkari. Some younger MPs like Tajaswi Surya will probably also find a place in the council of ministers. And the P Chidambaram-Karti Chidambaram duo will be the only father-son duo in the new Parliament.