Lok Sabha polls: Cong to gain in Madhya Pradesh, but BJP still has the edge

Factionalism returns to haunt the grand old party; many saffron MPs look to change constituencies

After a closely contested Assembly election last year, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are gearing up for another face-off in Madhya Pradesh in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. 

The Congress, which returned to power in the state after 15 years, was expected to consolidate its position. But infighting has returned to haunt the party. Also, the perception that the state government has underperformed and the announcement of the model code of conduct, which forced it to hold back the crop loan waiver scheme, have done the party no good.

In 2014, the Congress had managed to win only two of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the state (Kamal Nath from Chhindwara and Jyotiraditya Scindia from Guna-Shivpuri). The party later won the  Jhabua-Ratlam by-poll.  

This year, the Congress is sensing clear victories in at least nine seats — Chhindwara, Guna,  Jhabua-Ratlam, Gwalior, Morena, Sidhi, Satna, Dhar, and Khargone. The party can win a few more, depending on who are its candidates. Political commentator Girija Shankar said: “There is no big factor, and the results may turn out to be similar as the Assembly polls, though the BJP will have a slight advantage.”

What is hurting the party most is the resurfacing of factionalism. It all started when Chief Minister Kamal Nath suggested that senior leader Digvijaya Singh should consider contesting a tough seat like Bhopal, Indore or Vidisha, where the Congress has not won for more than 30 years. Jyotiraditya Scindia appeared to support this view and said that he was also ready to contest from any “tough” seat. But, Singh, who is a Rajya Sabha MP, replied sarcastically: "Thank you, Kamal Nathji, for inviting me to contest from the weak seats of Madhya Pradesh. I am grateful that you considered me worthy of a fight.” But, he stressed that he would contest from wherever “his leader” Rahul Gandhi asks him.

The Congress on Saturday announced that Singh would be its candidate in Bhopal.

Congress Spokesperson Pankaj Chaturvedi, however, denied any differences in the party and said the state unit was united and "prepared enough to defeat the BJP". But comments and reactions of the top three Congress leaders of Madhya Pradesh suggest otherwise.

There is speculation that Scindia may contest from Gwalior this time and his wife Priyadarshini Raje will replace him in Guna-Shivpuri.

Resentment among tribal leaders is another matter of concern for the Congress. The Jay Aadiwasi Yuwa Shakti Sangathan (JAYAS), which played a significant role in the Congress' victory in the Assembly polls, is not happy with a few recent developments. Its leader Hiralal Alawa, who won on the Congress ticket from the Manawar Assembly constituency, was denied a ministerial berth in the Kamal Nath government. 

The JAYAS now wants the Congress to field candidates of its choice in Dhar and Jhabua-Ratlam Lok Sabha constituencies, but the party leadership is paying no heed to the demand. Alawa has threatened to announce JAYAS-backed candidates if the Congress does not give in.

On the other hand, sources in the BJP apprehended that the saffron party will concede some of its currently held 27 seats to the Congress. Many party MPs, including Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar, have sensed the public mood, and want to fight from a different constituency. Tomar is looking to contest either from Bhopal or Vidisha, both strongholds of the BJP. 

There are reports that people and even BJP workers have strong reservations on MPs from Sagar, Rewa, Sidhi, Shahdol, and Khandawa. 

Still, it has delivered a setback to the Congress. Himadri Singh, daughter of former Union minister and the late Congress MP Dalbir Singh, has recently joined the BJP. Her mother, Rajesh Nandini Singh, was also a Congress MP from Shahdol. 

Himadri is a prominent tribal face in the Shahdol-Anuppur region and after marrying BJP leader Narendra Maravi, she has joined the saffron outfit.

Keeping all the above aspects in mind, the picture is clear: The Congress will gain some seats but the BJP is likely to finish at the top.