Lok Sabha polls: Outsider in the south, Modi holds sway in the north

'Modi's stand on Pakistan will win more him votes in Jammu', says an ex-serviceman

“Tea romba nallaa irukku. Ithu DMK tea-aa illa ADMK tea-a?” (The tea is very good. Is it DMK tea or ADMK tea?) The answer that comes from the chaiwalla at Chennai railway station is not what you expect. Jeetendra Singh, a tea seller from Madhya Pradesh, shoots back in Hindi: “Mere desh ke neta kaisa ho, Narendra Modi jaisa ho.” 

It is a fitting prelude to the 2,799-km journey that you are about to take on board the Andaman Express that traverses the length of the country from Chennai to Jammu Tawi and goes through 11 states which account for as many as 299 Lok Sabha seats out of the total of 543. For the next 58 hours, election talk dominates the conversation on the train.  

As the train moves out of Chennai Central at 5.20 am and gathers speed, the passengers begin to discuss who would fill the void left by Kalaigar (M Karunandihi) and Amma (Jayalalithaa) in Tamil Nadu. “It is all about DMK and M K Stalin at this point,” says Muthu, a daily labourer on his way to Sullurupeta in Andhra Pradesh. “AIADMK has the upper hand in terms of money, and Narendra Modi is a non-factor here.”

Another passenger, K Jairamaiah, says that Kamal Haasan’s Makkal Needhi Maiam party could be a spoiler amidst the clash of the titans. “Every actor cannot be an M G Ramachandran (founder of AIADMK). The BJP is still an outsider here. And with a clear leader in Stalin, DMK has an advantage over a divided AIADMK.”

Four political movies — NTR Kathanayakudu, NTR Mahanayakudu, Lakshmi's NTR and Yatra — are battling to grab eyeballs in Andhra, three on the life of Nandamuri Taraka Ramarao and one on YSR Reddy. Like Yatra, getting critical and box office applause, the talk on the train was all about YSR Congress chief Jaganmohan Reddy, as the train enters Andhra Pradesh. 

Kishore Nath, who is in real estate and is going from Nellore to Vijaywada, says, “Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) has developed coastal Andhra. There is a fear that if Jagan comes, the focus will be on Rayalaseema.” Nath gets furious whenever he hears the word demonetisation. “Modi’s demonetisation and the introduction of GST wiped out 60 per cent of my business,” he fumes.   

Malakonda Reddy, who works with a pharmaceutical major and boards the train from Vijaywada, says that people love Jagan because of his father Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, the hugely popular late chief minister of Andhra Pradesh. Reddy feels that the sops Naidu has given recently, such as Rs 3,000 to 4.5 million farmers and Rs 10,000 to every women registered with self-help groups, are yet to have any impact on the ground. 

And then another passenger, Chiranjeevi Babu, declares grandly, “Whether Modi or Rahul, Telugu speakers (in Andhra and Telangana) will be the kingmakers this time.”

Babu’s prophecy appears likely when we stop at Mahbubabad station in Telangana. Hoards of people in pink get off the train to attend the rally of chief minister and Telangana Rashtra Samithi leader K Chandrashekar Rao. Signalling to the crowd, Chari, a stone worker, says, “Priyanka Gandhi will become Prime Minister and here it will be Rao.”

“People are emotionally connected to KCR as he was instrumental in creating Telangana. Moreover, there is no opposition as people are disgusted with the Congress after they tied up with TDP,” say rural department officials, Raju, Shankar and Khadir Ahmed. 

But Anil Kumar, a doctor from Khammam, feels the plight of cotton and mirchi farmers will be an issue in these elections and that the Congress cannot be written off. “We may even be voting for a surprise PM in the form of Rao,” Kumar says.

Rural distress

“Are you looking for betting options,” Jitesh responds with a counter question when you quiz him about his views on which party would form the government in the coming elections. It’s 2.45 am and we are in Nagpur in Maharashtra. A diehard fan of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Jitesh feels that if the BJP does not come back to power, all development projects will come to a standstill.

Nagpur falls under the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra, where farmer distress could be a serious worry for the BJP. According to reports, around 2,500 farmers had taken their lives in Maharashtra since October 2017.

The plight of farmers is also what you hear from the locals as the train enters Madhya Pradesh. Lodhi Patel, a chana farmer from Itarsi, says, “Even after the government came up with a support price of nearly Rs 5,000 a quintal, we are getting hardly Rs 3,000 as traders are not buying it. No matter who comes to power, farmer woes continue.” 

Others say that the loan waiver announcement by Kamal Nath’s Congress government may be a decisive factor in the elections in Madhya Pradesh. “BJP has an upper hand in the state. But the loan waiver makes it a closer fight,” says Raghuvir Prasad from Jhansi, a former railway employee. Agrees, Akash Pare, a young civil engineer from Bhopal, “It will be at least 10 seats less for the BJP this time,” he says. 

Modi looms

At Dholpur in Rajasthan, Papu Dhekedar is working on the railway tracks. Ask him who will win, and he raises his hands and says “Congress Zindabad, Rahul Gandhi Zindabad”. Inside the train, though, Rajan Singh, a BJP worker, says if the Congress wins most of the seats in Rajasthan, development will take a hit. “We may get around 18-20 seats,” he says. 

The support for Modi is palpable as the train wends its way across the Hindi heartland and into Uttar Pradesh. Gopal Singh, 80, asks about the “Pakistan flags” seen at Rahul Gandhi’s rally in Kerala. He refuses to believe that the green flags with their white crescents were those of the Indian Muslim League.  

“I will vote for Modi,” asserts Rahul Singh from Rae Bareli, a Congress stronghold. “There is some honesty in the man. If bitter rivals like Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav are getting together to defeat him, he must be doing something right!”

But Jagesh Choudhary, who gets on the train from Mathura, feels that the mahagathbandhan will ensure that the BJP’s number of seats will be halved in UP. “Some like our Hema Malini are non-performers. I prefer to call her drama girl than dream girl,” he says. 

The train crosses Delhi and Haryana around midnight. Vinod Kumar Malhotra, a driver from Rohini in Delhi, is awake, talking about Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, “He ensured that a poor man gets all that he needs — free water, power, education and health. But in the BJP, all except chowkidar Modi are chor.” 

In Punjab, most of the passengers boarding the train still swear by Manmohan Singh. “Manmohan is the brain behind Rahul Gandhi. The NYAY scheme is because of him. What has Modi done to the economy except demonetisation,” grumbles Sardar Jasmail Singh.

Others say the Congress and BJP will have a close fight in Punjab. And what of the impact of the Balakot strike? “I don’t see any impact of Balakot in Punjab. Modi has some good schemes for woman. He should highlight those," says Rita Yadav, a traveller from Jalandhar.

In its final leg of the journey, the train’s first stop is Kathua in Jammu, now infamous for the eight-year-old girl who was raped and killed here last year. “Modi will come back. I used to vote for the Congress, this time it is for Modiji.” says Babuilal, who runs a teashop in Kathua.

The divide between the Hindu-majority Jammu and the Muslim-majority Kashmir valley is evident even on the train. “The National Conference and the PDP are not bothered about the development of Jammu. Out of the six Lok Sabha seats, only two are from Jammu. So we are not having much say,” says Banarasi Singh, an ex-serviceman.  

Vikram Singh, also an ex-serviceman, is furious about the freedom that separatist leaders continue to enjoy in the state. Modi's stand on Pakistan will win more him votes in Jammu, he declares.