LS opinion polls: Modi-led NDA to close in on majority, return to power

'In the immediate aftermath of the Balakot strikes the percentage of those strongly satisfied with the government rose to a recent all-time high of 52%,' says CVoter

Opinion polls in lead up to the Lok Sabha elections 2019 predict that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will come back to power, though some suggest they may fall short of the magic number of 272. 

Here's a closer look at the three polls:

Times Now-VMR opinion poll

Three days ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, a survey by Time Now- VMR shows that the NDA will come back to power with 279 seats. It projects 149 seats for the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and 115 for other parties and candidates.

CVoter opinion poll

The BJP and its allies are expected to win 267 of the 543 parliament seats at stake, the CVoter polling agency said, just five short of the halfway mark required to rule.

The latest estimate is down sharply from the alliance’s current tally of 330 seats secured when Modi swept to power in 2014, promising to transform India.

“In the immediate aftermath of the Balakot strikes the percentage of those strongly satisfied with the government rose to a recent all-time high of 52 per cent,” CVoter said, referring to the raid in Pakistan’s Balakot area.

India TV-CNX opinion poll

A third poll by India TV-CNX pre-poll said Modi’s alliance would clear the halfway mark, winning 275 seats. The poll projects that BJP's tally could go down by 52 seats to settle at a lower-than-halfway-mark 232 in the Lok Sabha in the upcoming polls. Congress might increase its tally from 44 to 97 -- falling short of the three-digit mark yet again -- the survey says. 

LOKNITI-CSDS-TIRANGA TV-THE HINDU-DAINIK BHASKAR PRE POLL SURVEY 2019

The fourth pre-poll survey conducted by Lokniti of the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies indicates that the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance a second term. The Survey shows that both the BJP and the Congress are likely to register a four percentage point increase in their vote share. But, in the case of the BJP, this rise, is not accompanied by a corresponding increase in its seat share.

Despite an increase in vote share, the BJP is likely to lose seats due to a “more united Opposition” in key states. The survey pegged BJP’s seat estimate between 222 and 232, significantly lower than the 283 seats that the party won in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The survey showed that NDA may or may not cross the majority mark, winning between 263 and 283 seats. The United Progressive Alliance is estimated to have between 115 and 135 seats.

The SP-BSP combine in Uttar Pradesh is posing a stiff challenge to the BJP. If the current trends were to continue, the BJP is likely to lose a significant chunk of seats in this politically important state. While it may continue to do well in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and even Chhattisgarh, it is unlikely to repeat its 2014 performance.

“Over the last one year, the ruling party appears to have overcome the emerging mood of anti-incumbency and turned the tide in its favour,” the survey report said. “As things stand in the last week of March 2019, the NDA appears close to the majority mark, though the BJP itself seems well short of securing a majority on its own. One must, however, hasten to add, that there does not appear to be any national wave in favour of the ruling party.”