Modi defies contrarians, set to be first non-Congress PM to return to power

BJP proves several assessments wrong, makes inroads into South, repeats Hindi heartland show, makes iy mark in Odisha and gives Mamata a run for her money in Bengal

The contrarians had three or four assessments or assumptions about the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, and the Bharatiya Janata Party, it would seem at the time of filing of this report at 10.30 am, has defied them all. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is on his way to be the first non-Congress prime minister to return to power.

The first assumption or assessment was that the BJP, barring Karnataka, was unlikely to do well in southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana.

At the time of filing of this report, the BJP was leading in as many as four seats in Telangana. In Kerala’s Thiruvananathapuram, the BJP candidate was running close the Congress sitting candidate Shashi Tharoor.

The second assumption or assessment was that the BJP might not be able to repeat the kind of performance it delivered in the Hindi heartland in 2014.

It was thought the Congress would somewhat improve in states where it is in direct contest with the BJP and the grand alliance of Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal would limit BJP’s wins in UP.

The Congress, in the event, could not hold on to its gains made in the recently held Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The BJP is nearly on the road to repeat its performance in these states, as also in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Bihar.

It would also seem the SP-BSP-RLD alliance failed to click in UP. It would seem that not only the transfer of vote did not take place between these parties, but the Yadav support base of the SP and RLD’s Jat support base might have deserted them to vote for the BJP.

The third assumption or assessment was that the BJP might not be able to dent the respective regional parties in West Bengal and Odisha significantly. In the event, the BJP is running the Trinamool Congress close in Bengal. It is also set to improve upon its 2014 tally of one seat in Odisha.

The result is akin to Indira Gandhi’s return to power in 1971. It would have consequences for the opposition, particularly the Congress party.