Modi loses to Index of Opposition Unity

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its three allies have lost Bihar. It looks like a rout if compared with BJP's success in the state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The National Democratic Alliance had then won 31 of the 40 seats, which correspond to 172 of the 243 Assembly constituencies. But BJP should take solace in the fact that it has increased its vote share significantly since the previous elections in 2010, and would have repeated its 2014 performance if it was not for a unity among its opponents.

In contrast, all three 'Mahagathbandhan' parties have lost vote share since the 2010 polls - Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress party marginally, and Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) significantly. That is partly explained by the fact that all three parties this time contested on fewer seats than they did in 2010.

The truth of the 2015 Bihar polls, beyond the political causes of BJP's defeat and Mahagathbandhan's victory, is that the BJP-led alliance has lost to what is known as the 'Index of Opposition Unity', besides in some measure to the poor performance of its allies. The three Mahagathbandhan parties have together polled more votes than the BJP-led alliance of four parties has done.

Also, the vote share data indicate that the Mahagathbandhan parties have succeeded in transferring the votes of their respective support bases to each other successfully, while BJP has failed to transfer its vote share to its allies like Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Samta Party and Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustan Awam Morcha (Secular). This is evident in the percentage of seats contested and won - the Congress has won as many as 27 of the 41 seats it contested, while BJP allies have together won a mere five of the 83 seats they contested on. Kushwaha and Manjhi's parties failed to deliver the significant vote share that BJP President Amit Shah and his strategists had expected them to.

On the bright side for BJP, this was its first election in over two decades when it contested on as many as 157 of the 243 seats as the lead party of an alliance. The result, disappointing in the short term, gives BJP the opportunity to become a major force in Bihar in the years to come.

In 2010, BJP, in alliance with JD(U), had contested on 102 seats and won 91. It secured 16.4 per cent votes in 2010 and 24.4 per cent in 2015. If compared with the 2010 polls, JD(U) has shrunk a little. In 2010, it had contested on 141 seats and won 115, with a vote share of 22.5 per cent. This time, it contested on 101 seats and won 71, with a vote share of 16.8 per cent. Despite BJP's better cadre strength, Nitish Kumar's JD (U) was the lead party during its alliance with BJP. Now, it is a junior partner to Lalu Prasad's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), both in terms of seats won and vote share secured.

The real winner, it would seem, is RJD. In 2010, it had contested on 168 seats and won only 22, with a vote share of 18.8 per cent. It was then in alliance with LJP. This time, RJD contested on far fewer seats (101 seats) but secured 18.4 per cent of votes and won in 80 of those constituencies. An interesting fact about the Bihar Assembly election this time has been the high number votes cast in favour of NOTA (None of the Above). Nearly a million people (2.5 per cent of the total valid votes) were for NOTA. As much as 9.4 per cent of the votes were for over a 1,000 Independent candidates in the fray. This was down from the 13 per cent for Independents in 2010.