Rural voters hold the key to fortunes of BJP, Congress in Gujarat

In Gujarat, both the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Opposition Congress are already celebrating. Reason: The turnout of 64.11 per cent — the highest ever recorded in Gujarat — in the third phase voting for the Lok Sabha polls.

Only the results on May 23 could reveal which party benefitted from the record voter turnout in the state which has 26 Lok Sabha seats; even political observers are unwilling to conclude a certain winner.

But events leading up to the voting and campaigning for the election showed there could more to the record turnout than the 'Modi wave', which saw Gujarat post 63.6 per cent voter turnout in 2014 polls.

Take a look at tribal areas, for instance. Valsad in south Gujarat recorded the highest turnout of 75.21 per cent, followed by Bardoli (73.57 per cent), Chhota Udepur (73.44 per cent), and Bharuch (73.21 per cent) — all having a significant tribal population. In recent history, the party winning the Valsad seat has always gone on to form the government at the Centre, be it the BJP in 2014 or the Congress in 2004 and 2009. 

Of late, tribals are upset over the pending land allotment in the BJP-ruled state. Political observers Vidyut Joshi and Achyut Yagnik believe even the central Gujarat seat of Anand, an agrarian constituency and also tribal-populated, could go to the Congress.

But the decider in the state’s overall results could be the agrarian regions of Kutch-Saurashtra and north Gujarat, which have been reeling from several farm-related issues. In the last one year, these regions have witnessed both extreme floods and drought. The farm issues got aggravated after scanty rainfall forced the state government to cut water supply for summer sowing last year.

The regions have also seen farmers' unrest in the wake of “insufficient” minimum support prices (MSP). 

Agrarian unrest was evident in the 2017 Assembly results when as against 115 seats of the 182 in the Assembly in 2012, the BJP could manage only 99; the Congress’ tally shot up from 61 seats to 77. It gained ground in Saurashtra, an agrarian region, apart from some central seats, including tribal areas.

Which is why, political analysts believe the seats of Patan, Banaskantha and Sabarkantha in north Gujarat, and seats of Amreli, Junagadh and Surendranagar could be crucial for the BJP, which had swept all 26 seats in 2014.

The argument is also weighed in the light of the recent voting patterns in Saurashtra. For instance, Amreli, which saw water shortage and farmers' unrest, among other agrarian issues, recorded the lowest turnout at 55.75 per cent. 

This, Yagnik believes, could also express farmers' umbrage at the incumbent establishment. “It is certain that BJP is not going to get all the 26 seats. It now depends on how many seats the Congress capitalised,” Yagnik told Business Standard.

Further, the role of communities is also crucial in Gujarat. The Patidars, comprising the Leuva and the Kadva Patels, were divided befo­re the April 23 voting, with a large secti­on of those in rural areas supporting the Congress.  

This year, the BJP also replaced candida­tes in 10 seats, including that of Gandhinagar, where veteran L K Advani has been replaced by party President Amit Shah.

The Congress, too, fielded multiple Koli Patels in key seats, including Surendranagar in Saurashtra. Among the communities in Gujarat, especially in the Saurashtra region, the Kshatriyas are also believed to be angry with the BJP.

Both the BJP and the Congress have not only been aware of the stakes while fielding candidates but also in their campaigns.  It was strategic that almost all of the public gatherings by the heavyweights of both the BJP and the Congress were held in rural and tribal areas.

The two BJP heavyweights, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Shah,  addressed public gatherings away from the four major urban centres of Gujarat largely — Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat and Rajkot. This was barring one public gathering addressed by Shah in Ahmedabad. 

While Modi addressed gatherings in rural-heavy regions in north and central Gujarat, and Kutch-Saurashtra, including Himmatnagar, Surendranagar, Anand, Amreli, Junagadh, and Patan, Shah addressed gatherings in Kodinar, Veraval, Chhota Udepur, and Bardoli. 

On the other hand, Congress President Rahul Gandhi’s public addresses were in the Kutch-Saurashtra region, including Bhuj, Rajula, Bhavnagar and Navsari.

Congress candidates, too, were spread out, conducting mostly door-to-door campaigns. This is nothing compared to the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when public gatherings in even urban centres like Surat, Ahmedabad and Vadodara were held by crowd pullers of both parties.

Political observers believe the low key affair yet rural-heavy Gujarat campaign by the two parties exhibited that the picture after the May 23 results would be slightly different in the state than in 2014.