Target 151: BJP sets eyes on the prize in Gujarat Assembly elections

The greatest solace for the BJP was the Congress' inability to mount a robust campaign. But a bigger imponderable was how the Aam Aadmi Party would fare

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was fixated on realising one goal in the Gujarat elections: winning 151 seats. Union Minister Piyush Goyal was the first to wave the figure at a media conclave in Mumbai on November 5. As Goyal’s claim gained traction and the figure became a buzzword in the Gujarat BJP, Prime Minister Narendra Modi placed his seal of ratification at a meeting in Bhuj on November 27.

“Gujarat BJP leaders have time and again said BJP will win 151 seats, while those doing surveys claim 140 seats for BJP. I am sure the people of Gujarat will prove those predicting 140 seats wrong and fulfil the pledge of 151 seats,” Modi was quoted saying.

The number 151 was significant for two reasons: the BJP wanted to break its record since it began winning Assembly elections in 1995. It chalked up the highest score of 127 in 2002 in the first polls led by Modi. Also, it wanted to reach the zenith beyond the highest tally of 149 achieved by the late Congress chief minister (CM) Madhavsinh Solanki in 1985.

Veteran BJP leader Jagdish Bhavsar sourced the BJP’s confidence to the “work accomplished since 2001” when Modi took over as Gujarat CM after a disquieting, crisis-besieged seven years when it formed its first full-fledged government.

“The work rests on the five pillars of the Gujarat model which are water, peace and security, educational infrastructure, a strong dairy sector, and a high-quality tourism circuit,” said Bhavsar.

Water supply topped the chart of accomplishments. It was carried out through the Saurashtra Narmada Avtaran Irrigation Yojana that took the Narmada waters to the parched villages of Kutch and Saurashtra, the Narmada canal, the Kutch branch canal, and the Sardar Sarovar Dam.     

Bhavsar added that this time the BJP amped up the organisational groundwork, cautious that voter fatigue could see a lower turnout than in past elections.

“We had the panna pramukhs (page chiefs) on each booth in 2017 as well. This time the booth in-charges were tasked to delegate the responsibility of four or five households to each worker so that our voters would show up in full strength. It’s not possible for one person to mind several families.”

The factor that overrode the government’s ‘achievements’ and organisational preparedness was Modi. The posters plastered all over portrayed a large mugshot of Modi with smaller visages of Home Minister Amit Shah, Bhupendra Patel, the CM, BJP President J P Nadda, and Gujarat party chief C R Patil.

“The majority of the candidates are under Modi’s shadow. On their own, they can’t even get 500 votes,” said a Saurashtra BJP functionary, claiming that the ‘Modi factor’ would eventually negate the internal rebellion (he counted as many as 45 dissidents, some of who contested as Independents), the skewed caste equations, ‘bad’ image of the candidates, and anti-incumbency.

“Those who were discarded to accommodate the Congress defectors were upset. They should be accommodated suitably if we have a government again,” the functionary said.

Balosinh Thakor, who headed the Gandhinagar BJP’s Other Backward Class morcha, said, “It is important to vote Modi in an election, big or small, because a vote against Modi can even destabilise the central government.”

In Gujarat’s context, ‘destabilisation’ was construed primarily as a threat to its market- and Sensex-driven economy.

Balosinh minds the Gandhinagar (South) seat from where the BJP fielded Alpesh Thakor, who led a campaign against the party in 2017 with Hardik Patel (also in the BJP) and Jignesh Mevani (in the Congress). The sitting Member of Legislative Assembly, Shambhuji Thakor, a two-time winner, was dropped and he reportedly sulked. “But he can’t do much damage because the party is solidly with Alpesh,” contended Balosinh.

On the macro canvas, apart from emphasising Modi’s political centrality, the BJP flagged its combat-terrorism operations, laced with the promise of creating a separate cell to fight ‘radicalisation’, and constantly went back to the 2002 communal violence to reassure its core constituency that its fundamental agenda of ‘protecting’ the Hindus remained intact.

It was not as though the economy was not impacted by reverses, although the business and trading communities managed to offset the unwanted effects of the goods and services tax (GST) regime that buffeted them five years ago.

But the problems were local.

If the farmers of Saurashtra coped with declining returns from peanut and cotton cultivation that to them underlined the untenability of farming, central and north Gujarat had their issues.

In Kheda (central Gujarat), the revenues from the tobacco trade went down by 20 per cent after the GST regime rolled in, while Dalits from the Rohit sub-caste who were involved in skinning dead cattle for leather forcibly looked for other employment after facing constant threats from cattle vigilantes.

In Banaskantha (north Gujarat), profits from the dairy sector, the backbone of its economy, fell over the last three or four years because of the escalating prices of cattle fodder and feed.

Milk contributes over 20 per cent of Gujarat’s agricultural gross domestic product and the Banas Dairy was celebrated as a success story since it is the largest of the 18 district co-operative units that form the Gujarat Co-operative Milk Marketing Federation.

Palanpur (also in north Gujarat) was the hub of the diamond trade. The Jains who controlled the diamond industry here managed to breach the world’s diamond headquarter at Antwerp which was Jewish-dominated. In recent years, the bulk of the cutting and polishing moved to Surat.

The greatest solace for the BJP was the Congress’ inability to mount a robust campaign against its 27-year rule, despite the subterranean discomfort with issues such as inflation, paper leaks, below-par quality of state education and health, and the none-too-healthy state of the small and medium enterprises.

The biggest imponderable was how the Aam Aadmi Party would fare. Its spirited entry and campaign created a perception that it was a serious player.

Whether this translates into votes is the big question.