Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls: BJP up against the Muslim challenge

While the party is hoping for a division of minority votes in February 14 polls, many in the community say it is time they didn't waste their power

The Rohilkhand region to Delhi’s northeast and Shahjahanpur to the tip of the Avadh region vote on February 14 in the second phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh. Between them, they contain 55 seats being contested by 584 candidates. As in most parts, the contest has narrowed to a straight fight between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal (SP-RLD) combine, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the fray in places — mainly on account of its candidates.

In Rohilkhand, too, the BJP maintained its victory streak in the 2017 election, picking up 38 seats, while the Samajwadi Party, in alliance with the Congress, got just 15 seats in an erstwhile stronghold. Although the tables haven’t yet turned, there is palpable worry in the BJP over retaining an invincible lead. The BJP’s strategy is predicated on a “split” in the Muslim votes, which determine the outcome in at least six parliamentary seats (Saharanpur, Rampur, Moradabad, Amroha, Bijnor, and Bareilly) that have a minority population of close to or over 

50 per cent. The BJP has even counted Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), which has fielded six candidates in this round, as a potential “spoiler”, besides the BSP and the Congress.

Vinod Agarwal, Moradabad mayor from the BJP, claimed: “Four of the six Assembly seats (in the district) have triangular fights where the BSP is a certain threat but even the AIMIM and the Congress are challenging the SP-RLD.” While five years ago, the BJP won just two seats, Moradabad Nagar and Kanth, this time Agarwal said he looked at netting four, including Kundarki, where four Muslims, from the SP-RLD, BSP, Congress and AIMIM, are competing against one another.

On Friday evening, Owaisi addressed a nukkad (street-corner) meeting in Kundarki village on the Moradabad-Agra highway. He implored a packed gathering to reject SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, saying: “Three generations of Muslims wasted their votes on the Yadav family. Yet Azam Khan (veteran SP leader of Rampur) is in jail, while Akhilesh breathes free. It’s time for you to demand your legitimate share of power.”  

Amid the claps and cheers, Farman Pasha, a 27-year-old M Com student, remarked: “Owaisi is a good leader, educated and competent. We see a future in him but this election is about voting out the BJP. We can’t waste our votes.” A point explained in detail by Amirul Jafri, former chairperson of Moradabad’s Bar Association and Congressman. “Although the Congress is my first choice, this election is about voting the SP-RLD because it is the most viable alternative. The BJP hurt my community excessively and must go. Muslims heard out every leader, Owaisi, Priyanka Gandhi, but will vote prudently. That’s the hope.”  

In Bijnor, which has eight Assembly seats, a BJP coordinator conceded: “If the Muslim votes are divided, we can keep four or five seats.” In 2017, the party lost just one seat in the district. In Bareilly, the BJP banked on Tauqeer Raza Khan, an influential cleric who heads the Ittihad-e-Millat Council, to help divert a large part of minority votes towards the Congress, which he officially supports.

The BJP’s tactic is also evident in Rampur. Its ally, the Apna Dal (Sonelal) put up Haider Ali Khan (Hamza Mian) against Abdullah Khan, Azam Khan’s son, in Suar. Hamza Mian is the scion of Kazim Ali Khan (Naved Mian), heir to Rampur’s Noor Mahal and grandson of the last Nawab, Syed Raza Ali Khan. Although Abdullah was elected from Suar in 2017, his membership was annulled in 2019 after Naved Mian filed a suit against him for submitting “fake” documents. Abdullah, who was in jail for two years, was released in January.

The Congress has set Naved Mian against Azam Khan from Rampur as the battle acquired shades of an “aristocracy” versus “commoner” character. Khan is still in jail after 80 charges, ranging from land grab to goat theft, were levelled. Faheen Qureshi, a Rampur-based political observer, noted: “The royal family sent a bad signal with such low politicking. The Congress lost our goodwill as a result. Khan and Abdullah are getting popular sympathy which will convert into votes.”

As an “insurance cover”, the BJP worked hard on winning over the Dalits through the welfare packages distributed since the first pandemic wave, housing loans, and money for building toilets. The cash was transferred directly to their bank accounts without the intervention of intermediaries or pradhans. “Mayawati (the BSP chief) is out of power for 10 years. Her Dalit voters have no hope except in the BJP which listens to them and sorts out their issues. Besides, who can match our welfare programmes?” asked Agarwal.

His claim was contested by Jafri who said: “The election is not only about Hindus and Muslims but more about the economic distress experienced by every community and caste. Rs 1000 for an LPG refill, Rs 400 for a kilo of mustard oil, no jobs.”

Om Prakash Singh, the Dalit pradhan of Sehwajpur village in Amroha’s Hasanpur Assembly constituency, rejected the government’s welfare package, saying it amounted to “throwing crumbs at the poor” and will be withdrawn after the elections. “There is no work. We are afraid of the central government’s move to privatise public sector companies. It means Dalits and backward castes in the reserved category will be the first to be thrown out. Already we are paying 50 per cent more for electricity after the power supplier (Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation) was restructured and supposedly modernised. The future looks bleak.”

Jats, not a monolith

The “Jat belt” of western Uttar Pradesh might have voted on February 10 but the Jats are present in parts of Rohilkhand where they are among the large landowners and sugarcane growers. It is not a monolithic caste that responds in a similar way to the issues of the day. The Jats have varying, if not contradictory, perspectives on the farmers’ agitation against the Centre’s laws which were since repealed.

Here are two different accounts of the protests from Amroha district’s Jat farmers:

Papan Kumar, 30, a resident of Sudanpur who works in the merchant navy and is on leave to vote: “The BJP government was okay when compared to the Samajwadi Party government. Corruption is low, and law and order management is good. Unfortunately, the central and state governments hurt us, the farmers. Therefore, I am a supporter of the RLD (Rashtriya Lok Dal). I am a fan of (Lord) Ram but politics cannot be just about temples and mosques, Hindus and Muslims. Chaudhary Jayant Singh (the RLD president) backed the farmers’ ‘andolan’ and won us over. We should get a higher price for our cane produce because our power tariff is high, often arbitrarily determined, power consumption in the fields is not metered, and urea supply was scarce this year. Most of the urea was consumed by the plywood factories whose owners constitute a powerful lobby in Uttar Pradesh.”

Navneet Sirohi, pradhan of Naugaon: “I attended the farmers’ agitation on the Ghazipur-Delhi border with others and backed off because liquor and meat were openly consumed. We don't drink and we are vegetarian. Farmers’ demands were totally unjustified. This village is 100 per cent backing Prime Minister Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath. The Samajwadi Party is another name for goondagardi and Modi and Yogi together spell safety and security. 

The poor are getting everything now, rations, PM-KISAN money, houses and toilets. 

It’s Ram Rajya.”