 "Will AIUDF play spoilsport for Congress in Assam?")
With Assam being the second most Muslim populous state, the Congress always had an edge over other parties in Assam politics. The Muslim voters had always been Congress’ traditional vote-base. Then arrived the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in Assam’s political scene in 2005 and the equations started changing fast.
AIUDF is headed by Badaruddin Ajmal, a Bengali-speaking cleric and a businessman by profession. The steady rise in Muslim population of Assam, which many see has been due to the unabated influx from Bangladesh, provided Ajmal the fertile ground to launch a political party which would champion the cause of ‘minorities’.
Since AIUDF’s entry into Assam politics, the Congress has been wary of it. Ajmal, who always wears kurta-pajama and a white skull-cap, has a greater appeal amongst the migrant Bengali-speaking Muslims and has been fast eating into Congress’ Muslim vote-base.
The rise of AIUDF has been rather very rapid. From 10 seats in 2006 (it contested the state polls just few months after formation); it went up to 18 in 2011, making it the second largest party in the Assam assembly. In last Lok Sabha election in 2014, it equalled the Congress party figure in Assam by winning three seats.
The rise of AIUDF has been rather very rapid. From 10 seats in 2006 (it contested the state polls just few months after formation); it went up to 18 in 2011, making it the second largest party in the Assam assembly. In last Lok Sabha election in 2014, it equalled the Congress party figure in Assam by winning three seats.
Assam would go for the second and the final phase of poll on April 11. The districts of central and lower Assam would vote on that day. All these districts, barring the four districts of Bodoland, have sizeable migrant Bengali Muslim population and at least seven being Muslim majority districts. In at least 25 constituencies, the Muslim voters are in majority. And AIUDF’s support base lies in these districts of central and lower Assam. If not central Assam, lower Assam can certainly be termed as its stronghold.
Out of the 18 seats that AIUDF won in last assembly election in 2011, 13 came from lower Assam, four from central Assam and one from Barak Valley. In 2014 Lok Sabha election, AIUDF’s performance in Muslim dominated constituencies was spectacular as it was a clean sweep for it, upstaging the Congress. Besides the Karimganj seat in Barak Valley, the party won both the lower Assam constituencies of Barpeta and Dhubri.
If the Congress faced a tough challenge from BJP in Upper Assam (where polls were held on April 4), in lower Assam it is the AIUDF that has emerged as a formidable force for it. If the 2014 results are anything to go by, the chances of Congress appear bleak in lower Assam.
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Prior to the polls, Ajmal had put in efforts to stitch a Bihar like formula of ‘Grand Alliance’ of “secular parties” in Assam. Though it appeared that the Congress was interested initially, it later gave a cold shoulder, fearing loss of Hindu votes in other regions of the state. The BJP, on the other hand, is hoping that Muslim votes would split between AIUDF and Congress and eventually help it or its coalition partners register a good performance in the second phase of polls.
BJP has accused both Congress and AIUDF of having secret alliance. “Though Tarun Gogoi and Badaruddin Ajmal indulge in tongue lashing at each other publicly, but privately they have love for each other. Both have ambitions to jointly form the next government,” said Amit Shah, BJP president, while attending an election rally recently.
Ajmal has made no secret of his political ambitions either. He knows AIUDF, at least in 2016, will not be in a position to form the government. So he wants to be the “kingmaker” in the next state government. “No one can make the next government without AIUDF’s support. I will become the next deputy chief minister,” said Ajmal at an election rally in lower Assam. Ajmal knows for him to become king or kingmaker, lower Assam holds the key.
He has been campaigning relentlessly in those constituencies since the election days were announced. If crowd gathering at his rallies are anything to go by, it certainly appears AIUDF has an edge over Congress in lower Assam. However, inner party collisions have somewhat put AIUDF on the back-foot in recent days. Few senior leaders had deserted the party, citing Ajmal’s leadership as “undemocratic”.
He has been campaigning relentlessly in those constituencies since the election days were announced. If crowd gathering at his rallies are anything to go by, it certainly appears AIUDF has an edge over Congress in lower Assam. However, inner party collisions have somewhat put AIUDF on the back-foot in recent days. Few senior leaders had deserted the party, citing Ajmal’s leadership as “undemocratic”.
The rise of BJP and AIUDF in the political scene of Assam makes this assembly election interesting to watch. If Muslims remain consolidated behind the AIUDF and upper Assam goes with the BJP, Congress party may not be any more in the reckoning in Assam’s politics.