Would poll outcomes be different if it were easier for disabled to vote?

Victory margins, census figures and potential under-reporting tell an interesting tale

V S Sunder who has taught mathematics for many years in India and elsewhere in the world, has increasingly faced mobility issues over the last few years because of multiple sclerosis. He used a wheel-chair to exercise his right to vote this time. It was only the assistance of his driver that allowed him to navigate the crowded polling booth, according to him, highlighting how difficult it may have been for  persons with PWD voters who may not have similar support. 

An analysis of PWD population data, numbers from other countries and recent victory margins suggests that the effect of PWD inclusion (or its absence) on voting patterns can be significant. 

The analysis looked at the victory margin in a state, based on the median value of its constituencies. This was compared to the state-wise proportion of PWDs based on government figures. Assuming that a similar proportion of voters among PWDs as the general population, they could account for up to a two per cent vote-swing in elections if they voted as a block, show back-of the-envelope calculations. This can cut the victory margin in a number of states, if one goes by 2014 figures.


 

The analysis becomes more interesting when one looks at the fact that India’s reporting of persons with disabilities is significantly lower than the rest of the world. India reports it at a little over two per cent of the population.  Other countries report twice, thrice or even over four times the figure.

The under-reported population is because of poor data collection, and an unwillingness among people to report disability, according to experts. Some people also ignore issues with mobility or hearing and eye-sight because of age-related issues, which is not the case abroad. This significant under-reporting can skew the resources available to bring such voters to polls.  

The disability rate globally is 15 per cent, according to the World Bank. Roughly 69 per cent of India's total population is eligible to vote. Assume the same proportion among PWD voters. They would account for 10.35 per cent of the voting population in India. This is greater than the median victory margin in more than a dozen states and union territories under consideration. 


 

The current elections have laid a specific emphasis on inclusion.  While some observers have welcomed the move, others suggest that not enough has yet been done.

Even the polling booths which are supposed to be ready for the PWD voter often have shortcomings that can be a challenge to overcome, according to the mathematician and  disability rights activist VS Sunder whose experience was shared earlier.

"The ramps, if they exist, are impossibly steep, for a wheelchair user," he said.

Dr Ketna L Mehta. Founder Trustee, Nina Foundation, a non-governmental organisation for rehabilitating those with spinal cord injuries said that the positive side of this election is for the first time in India there has been such a thrust to make the polls accessible for persons with disabilities, acknowledging their right to vote.

"In the 24 years that I have been disabled...I and my family have had to fend for ourselves....There is this huge gap between what is planned and what happens....on the ground, whoever is...implementing is not really aware about what our needs are, we too would like to vote with dignity, on our own terms......true inclusion is when everyone is aware and we don't have to struggle or face obstacles" she said.