‘While there is deceleration in growth, inflation is a bigger problem’
When Duvvuri Subbarao took charge as the twenty-second governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in September, 2008, he had to act swiftly to counter the impact of the global economic slowdown on the Indian economy.
Subbarao’s first eight months in office saw RBI reducing its repo rate six times and reverse repo rate four times, to support a slowing domestic economy. Repo rate was reduced 475 basis points and reverse repo rate 275 basis points during this period.
“When asked what he thought of the French Revolution, Mao Zedong had famously replied: It is too early to tell. People who take a long view of history, like Mao, take the position that it is just too soon to draw the lessons of the crisis,” Subbarao said on Friday in his welcome remarks at the start of the third PR Brahmananda Memorial Lecture by Stanley Fischer, governor of the Bank of Israel.
“Policy practitioners do not have the luxury of historians; they have to respond to unfolding developments in real time,” Subbarao added.
It appears that RBI’s efforts to pull the domestic economy out of slumber have succeeded, as India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth is seen accelerating to 8.6 per cent in the current financial year. The country’s economy had expanded 8 per cent in 2009-10 and 6.8 per cent in 2008-09.
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However, inflation appears to be playing the spoilsport, with the headline number climbing to 8.4 per cent in December, driven by high food prices. The central bank has also revised its inflation forecast for March to 7 per cent from 5.5 per cent earlier.
Rising prices have prompted RBI to raise its key policy rates seven times since March 2010. The repo rate has been raised 175 basis points to 6.5 per cent, while the reverse repo rate was raised 225 basis points to 5.5 per cent during this period.
Things have become complicated, as the growth in India’s industrial output in December slid to a 20-month low of 1.6 per cent. Earlier this week, in Bhopal, Subbarao had admitted that balancing growth and inflation was a tough act.
“We want to set interest rates in a way that inflation can be contained without hampering the growth rate. But, this is not going to be an easy balancing act to resort to,” he had told reporters.
Most analysts reckon slow growth in industrial production is unlikely to convince RBI to keep rates unchanged in its next policy meet, due on March 17, as inflation continues to remain a major concern.
“While there is a deceleration in growth, inflation is a bigger problem... we thus maintain our view of the RBI raising (rates) by an additional 50 basis points in 2011 and 2012,” Rohini Malkani and Anushka Shah, analysts with Citigroup Global Markets, said in a note.
Goldman Sachs expects RBI to increase rates 25 basis points in March and another 50 basis points in this calendar year.
Some analysts, who did not wish to be named, however, said it was too early to take a long-term view on the direction of interest rates, with food inflation cooling to a seven-week low of 13 per cent for the week ended January 29 and growth in industrial production faltering.
A further slowdown in investment activities, coupled with easing food prices, might encourage RBI to take a pause before raising rates again, they said.
Subbarao, himself, believes that the central bank’s policy should take into consideration the present macroeconomic challenges.
“The central bankers were a triumphant lot in the years before the crisis.... The crisis then came as a serious blow to the credibility of central banks... the challenge for central banks, as indeed for all policy makers, is to learn the lessons of the crisis and reflect them in their policies,” Subbarao said.