With the global financial crisis deepening and migrant workers losing jobs, remittances from non-resident Indians (NRIs) could decline by 20 per cent this financial year, said a Planning Commission report, which was submitted to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.
Total foreign inflows — investment and private transfers — can be around $65 billion compared to $81 billion in 2007-08, implying a fall of 20 per cent, the report said. However, it projected that foreign inflows could surge to $90 billion on account of a one-time increase in private transfers in the likelihood of Indian workers abroad deciding to bring home their accumulated savings on losing jobs.
“...as they (Indian workers abroad) return to India, they may bring back their accumulated savings and a one time increase may take place. During 2009-10, private transfers can be between $35 billion and $50 billion,” the plan panel report said. Private transfers from abroad increased to $25.76 billion during April-September 2008 as compared to $17.46 billion in April-September 2007, the report said pointing out that this could be an outcome of devaluation of the dollar-rupee exchange rate.