| US non-farm payroll data have been encouraging but the dollar is depreciating against major currencies, said a dealer. |
| After the data was announced, the US bond markets rallied unlike the past when heavy selling followed in anticipation of pressure on interest rates owing to indications of a recovery. The dollar took a beating as bond yields fell, but this was more of a technical correction, the dealer said. |
| The rupee might open at a higher level this week. The Reserve Bank of India would be the key to the rupee-dollar exchange rate this week, according to dealers. |
| According to Jaideep Paivaidya, forex consultant, Emecklai, the spot rupee will rule in a wide range of 43.65-95 this week. |
| Forwards may look up |
| Forward dollar premiums are expected to remain in a range with an upward bias. If the spot rupee depreciates in tune with the apex bank's intervention, importers will rush to cover their import obligations. Exporters in any case may prefer to wait till the rupee-dollar rates stabilises. |
| If the RBI allows the rupee to stabilise on its own, exporters will scurry for realising the proceeds as the currency is expected to appreciate otherwise. Capital inflows will continue to support the rupee. |
| On the other hand, the rupee is still overvalued on the real effective exchange rate scale as other major currencies like euro, pound and yen have been depreciating since October, said a dealer. Therefore, the central bank is busy reining the dollar-rupee exchange rate to prevent an appreciation. |
| Recap: The spot rupee remained range-bound last week with a downward bias. There was a check on the rupee's appreciation and dollar buying by public sector banks made the rupee-dollar rate reach a low of 43.73/74. |
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