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Yield on new 10-year G-sec expected at 7.25%

Might initially drop due to rate cut hopes, which might not come off

Neelasri Barman Mumbai
Last Updated : May 17 2013 | 2:44 AM IST
The yield on the 10-year benchmark government bond is expected to fall further from current levels when it gets replaced by a new 10-year benchmark government bond this Friday. According to traders, the new 10-year benchmark government bond yield is expected to trade in the range of 7.25-30% initially compared with the present 10-year benchmark government bond 8.15% 2022 which closed at 7.42% on Thursday. The yield on the 8.15% 2022 government bonds had ended at 7.46% on Wednesday.

“ The yield on the new 10-year government bond maturing in 2023 will be around 7.25%. It may initially move in the range of 7.25-7.30%,” said a government bonds dealer with a public sector bank.

The yield on the existing 10-year government bond has dropped sharply due to easing  inflation data. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation plunged to sub-5 level to stand at 4.89% in April against 5.96% in the previous month. While Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 9.39% in April against 10.39% in the previous month.

“ Before the mid-quarter review of Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy, the yield on the new 10-year benchmark government bond may drop to 7.10% on expectations of a further cut in the repo rate,” said a government bonds dealer with a private bank. The repo rate currently stands at 7.25%. RBI had cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in the annual monetary policy held in April.

As per the data on the Clearing Corporation of India Limited web site the yield on the new 10-year government security, which is to be auctioned tomorrow closed at 7.21%. This segment is called as “when issued” market giving indication of the pricing for paper to be issued in the future.

However, a poll by Business Standard shows that majority expect a status quo on key policy rates on June 17 when RBI will review the monetary policy. “If the repo rate is kept unchanged the yield on the new 10-year government bond will again rise to 7.40%,” said the treasury head of a public sector bank.

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First Published: May 17 2013 | 12:50 AM IST

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