All eyes on Russia as G20 leaders gather in Bali to discuss global crises

PM Modi to emphasis India's priorities as country takes over G20's annual presidency at the end of the meet

All eyes will be on Russia as nations gather for the 17th leaders’ summit of the G20 in Bali, Indonesia to discuss the global crises emerging out of the Ukraine war, including lack of food security, international economic distress, and the energy crisis in Europe.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi leaves for the island of Bali in Indonesia today, November 14, to attend the two-day summit beginning November 15. While officials have not confirmed details of the PM's bilateral meetings, they said there will be several.

For New Delhi, the high point of the summit would be the handover of the G20 presidency to India at the end of the meet. The important role gives India a far-reaching voice in international policymaking and sets the tone for many of its agendas.

The latest summit comes at a time of currency fluctuations, a global shipping crises and trade uncertainties, all tied to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to skip the summit, instead deputing Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to attend it.

Lavrov has been consistently shunned by Western leaders and foreign ministers since February when the war began, and his interactions at global summits have remained volatile.

The grouping of the world's 20 most powerful economies, the G20 is the premier forum for international economic cooperation representing around 85 per cent of the global GDP, over 75 per cent of the global trade, and about two-thirds of the world population.

Also read: G20 summit: Biden, Xi set for first face-to-face meeting amid strained ties

The summit is also expected to produce the Leaders’ Declaration to support the acceleration of the world’s recovery, host country Indonesia had said last week. Indonesia is pushing for more financial commitments from other nations for the Pandemic Fund, a $1.4-billion fund aimed at tackling the next global health pandemic.

Apart from seeking strategic guidance for the Fund, Indonesian President Joko Widodo has suggested he will impress upon visiting leaders the need to set aside at least $31 billion for the same.

Risk of no consensus

However, the risk of G20 nations not finding consensus remains strong, given the US and Russia have clashed on the language of the leaders’ declaration on Sunday at the 17th East Asia Summit (EAS). Held on November 12-13, EAS also saw the absence of Putin.

Russia and the US failed to agree on the language for a joint statement, a key diplomatic tool signalling the shifts in global geopolitics. Following arguments on several issues, Lavrov said in a post-summit press conference that the US and Western allies were looking to militarise Southeast Asia.

Officials said this would make it increasingly difficult for both to see eye to eye at the G20, an event that is marked by the presence of many of these Western allies.

The annual forum of 18-nations is held amongst the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) bloc and the group’s dialogue partners, India, Australia, New Zealand, China, Japan, South Korea, United States and Russia.

In a significant development, the East Asia Summit has helped in bringing China and the US onto the same page on the Ukraine issue, policy watchers believe. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and US President Joe Biden sat down for a closed doors meeting, the first such in two years.

In a not-so-veiled critique of strategic partner Russia's rhetoric, Keqiang denounced the irresponsible threats of nuclear strikes. He also spoke extensively about Beijing's policy towards Ukraine. 

India's agenda

Modi will also use the opportunity to invite all other G20 leaders to the next summit due to be held in India in September 2023. Officials said India's main focus during this year's summit would be to drum up support for its agenda as it takes up the G20 presidency for a year.

On Sunday, Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra said the PM will discuss the focus areas for India's presidency. These include environment and gender issues. But most significantly, he will bat for India to seek a greater voice for the global south in issues of international economic cooperation and the need for reformed 21st century institutions.

Sources said India will strive to act as a unifier, having strengthened bilateral and multilateral relationships with most G20 countries in the recent past. However, the job may be difficult given the recent turn of global events. Last week, Modi said India’s G20 presidency is coming at a time of crisis and chaos in the world.

During its G20 presidency, India will be holding about 200 meetings in 32 different sectors at multiple locations across India. The 18th Heads of State and Government Summit of the G20, to be held in New Delhi in December 2023, would be one of the most high-profile international gatherings to be hosted by India.

Modi is also set to meet the Indian community in Bali and visit a mangrove forest. India had last week joined the Mangrove Alliance for Climate initiative that was launched at the ongoing COP27 climate summit in Egypt. The seven-nation initiative is led by Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates.