 "Clinton has 90% chance of winning")
With hours to go before Americans vote, Democrat Hillary Clinton has about a 90 per cent chance of defeating Republican Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to the final Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey
The former secretary of state was leading Trump by about 45 per cent to 42 per cent in the popular vote, and was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory
To win, Trump needs higher turnout among Republican white voters than that which materialised in 2012, a drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted increase in Hispanic voters, the project showed.
Trump's chances rest with his performance in:
Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling ended, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three percentage points.
What if millennials stay home?
Clinton’s chance of winning is about 67%, by a margin of about 25 electoral votes.
This scenario envisions younger non-Republicans, turned off by a bruising primary campaign, head to the polls in lower-than-expected numbers. By doing so, the race is closer but Clinton wins.
Her chances are roughly similar to last week's odds, and any upset by Trump on Tuesday depends on an unlikely combination of turnouts of white, black and Hispanic voters in six or seven states, according to the survey
The former secretary of state was leading Trump by about 45 per cent to 42 per cent in the popular vote, and was on track to win 303 votes in the Electoral College to Trump’s 235, clearing the 270 needed for victory
To win, Trump needs higher turnout among Republican white voters than that which materialised in 2012, a drop-off in ballots by African-American voters and a smaller-than-predicted increase in Hispanic voters, the project showed.
Trump's chances rest with his performance in:
Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio, which were too close to call on Sunday, when polling ended, and Pennsylvania, where Clinton enjoyed a slim lead of three percentage points.
What if millennials stay home?
Clinton’s chance of winning is about 67%, by a margin of about 25 electoral votes.
This scenario envisions younger non-Republicans, turned off by a bruising primary campaign, head to the polls in lower-than-expected numbers. By doing so, the race is closer but Clinton wins.