Consider the evidence: Will change of guard change Nepal's fortune?

Deuba was previously appointed prime minister in 1995, 2001, 2004, and 2017, but has never served a full term

It was a case of “kahin pe nigahein, kahin pe nishana”. It was largely owing to the exertions of Pushpa Kamal Dahal, aka Prachanda, of the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist Centre (CPN-MC), that K P Oli had to resign as Nepal prime minister on July 13 following a Supreme Court order, despite having two-thirds seats in Parliament and six provincial governments under his command.
 
But the gains of blood, sweat and tears expended by Prachanda went to an unintended beneficiary — Sher Bahadur Deuba (75) of the Nepali Congress. He was sworn in as prime minister last week for a fifth term but will struggle to keep his government afloat — he commands only 63 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives. Prachanda and a group of MPs opposed to Oli would be crucial to the government’s stability.

 
But how did we get here? After the Maoist insurgency (1996- 2006), Nepal finally got a new Constitution in 2015. The national elections under the new constitution were held for the first time in 2017 and were swept by an alliance of Oli's Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) and Prachanda’s CPN-MC. They named the alliance: The Nepal Communist Party (NCP).
 

Initially, the two alliance partners agreed to share the prime ministership. But then they decided to settle for a “one man-one post” arrangement — by which Oli would continue as prime minister, while Prachanda would be chairman of the party. However, later Prachanda and his supporters accused Oli of not honouring his commitments and acting unilaterally, and moved to oust him. The struggle for power went on for three and a half years.

 
Oli, on the other hand, told his supporters he would never let Prachanda become PM and announced the dissolution of Parliament’s Lower House in December last year. But the Nepalese Supreme Court overruled the move this February, and ordered reinstatement and a vote of confidence. Oli lost the confidence vote held in May and recommended President Bidya Debi Bhandari dissolve the House again; she duly ordered it, ignoring Deuba’s claims that he had the support of 146 MPs and would be able to form a government if given a chance.
 
In the meantime, the Nepal Communist Party alliance split into many factions. One, led by former PM Madhav Kumar Nepal, decided to support Deuba. Along with the support of a faction of the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP), a party that owes its support base to the plains of Nepal (called Madhes), and the Madhav Nepal group, Deuba staked his claim to power. The apex court ordered that he be made PM with the caveat that he prove his majority on the floor of the House. The court also ruled that those who signed in his favour in the May vote were not bound by the party whip. In other words, the Madhav Nepal group could stay in the party led by Oli but still vote for Deuba.

 
This was a big shot in the arm for Deuba. The Nepal constitution says a vote of confidence is required only once in two years. Elections are eighteen months away. The clock is ticking.
 
With 49 MPs, the Prachanda faction has the capacity to create many disruptions for Deuba. But that’s not the only problem. The parties from the Madhes region bordering India have many expectations, including on the issue of citizenship that Oli resolved as the price for the support of the parties from the area. But the Supreme Court order annulled many of the steps Oli took to give more rights to the Madhesis. Deuba would have to restore some of those — which could be resented by other sections of Parliament that represent the hill areas.

 
The greatest concern is over his outlook on China, a country that has extended its influence in Nepal over the years. In 2017, Nepal endorsed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and now in thousands of village schools, Mandarin is taught free. Every year until Covid-19 put paid to it, delegations of various sections of Nepalese society were ferried to China on all-expenses-paid trips.
 
On the other hand, Nepal and especially Nepali Congress have had a privileged relationship with India. Apart from the unique military ties between the two nations, there is the “roti-beti ka rishta” between the two nations that goes beyond mere soft power. The support of India’s socialists and communists was central to Nepal’s democracy movement.

 
Deuba will survive as PM albeit in the throes of a struggle. But he is no stranger to this precarious existence: In none of the previous four tenures, he managed to complete a full term. On the other hand, instability drives innovation and experience in governance could strengthen his credibility, even if it is derived from the court.