Shantanu Mukharji is from the Indian Police Service who has served in Dhaka and is a security analyst. In this interview with Aditi Phadnis, he explains the political and geostrategic implications of Sheikh Hasina’s victory in Bangladesh. Edited excerpts:
Sheikh Hasina has won the Bangladesh elections again, despite anti-incumbency, croneyism and undeniable corruption. What are the changes we should expect to see in policy, so that these concerns are addressed in her new term?
Sheikh Hasina with a fresh mandate with an unprecedented majority, will start her fresh innings with a signal to voters that she would now pursue a policy of ‘zero tolerance’ against corruption. The task is onerous and very challenging . How will she convey that she means business? While a change in portfolios of the erstwhile ministers is on the cards, she might retain those ministers who have performed and delivered and drop the non performers and certainly those with a taint .
The new ministerial cabinet will likely be in place by January 6. There will be three to four technocrats in the Cabinet to lend a modern outlook to governance. At present, there are 49 ministers in the cabinet: 30 of cabinet rank; 17 ministers of state and 2 deputy ministers. While the numbers might not change, new ministers, especially those judged to be competent, should be expected.
Significantly, Hasina is also thinking of accommodating some in her cabinet who were denied tickets. This could be to rule out dissent in the new ministry.
Here are a few names. Lt Col ( retd ) Farooq Mohammad Khan, Presidium member Abdur Razzak and Prime Minister’s Private Sector Affairs Advisor Salman Rahman are being considered for ministerial berths. More interestingly, Bangladesh cricket player of international repute Mishrafe Bin Mortaza, who won the elections from Narail 2 constituency, may be inducted provided it does not clash with his cricketing commitments. However, he has every chance of being included after the World Cup. It is, therefore, evident that Hasina’s ongoing exercise for a new cabinet is all inclusive: A cricketer, scientists, technocrats, et al. The idea is to provide a clean, development-oriented government.
She is also required to allay fears amongst the western powers and the European Union that the December 30 election was not transparent and was marred by irregularities, intimidation and coercion.
Human Rights Watch, Bangladesh based in New York, came down heavily on the Bangladesh government on charges of tampering of ballot boxes. The US and the EU have voiced similar allegations. That said, the new PM is not overly worried about these criticisms. She seems happy that she has got legitimacy for her elections from India, China, Russia, Sri Lanka, Saudi Arabia and even Iran. Also, her personality is such that she is defiant in the face of pressure. Displaying her resolve and courage of conviction, she has, in the past, proceeded with grit in trying the war criminals and even executing them. She was indifferent to Islamic countries who advocated leniency to the Jamaat-linked war criminals .
She is also expected to launch a diplomatic offensive and try to get Tareq Rahman (son of former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia who is currently in jail on corruption charges) deported from London to Bangladesh to face trial on a number of important charges and see that he is also convicted. Tareq Rahman is in exile in London and is suspected to be receiving support from quarters that want to hurt Indian and Bangladesh interests. His extradition will reaffirm Hasina’s credibility and reinforce her political credentials. This will also help unity among the liberal and secular forces and give a sense of security to the religious minorities .
The opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP)- Jamaat e Islami have ganged up. The nature of the opposition is as anti-India as it is Islamic fundamentalist. How big a danger is this to the internal politics of Bangladesh? How much space will Pakistani fundamentalist groups get in Bangladesh now?
The unholy nexus between BNP and Jamaat is well known. They have actively partnered in governance (2001-2006). Two Jamaat ministers were given crucial cabinet berths tacitly allowing them to deepen the Pakistani footprint in Bangladesh, encouraging anti-India propaganda and fomenting Islamic fundamentalism which nourished different terror groups threatening the secular fabric of Bangladesh. BNP remained a ‘white collar’ entity which abetted fanaticism by proxy through Jamaat. That remained a dark chapter in the Bangladesh history.
Threat to internal affairs in Bangladesh remain as several zealot groups derived and continue to get oxygen from the Jamaat and its extremist ideology. We have seen systematic killings of LGBT activists , liberals and progressive elements , bloggers and intelligentsia since 2013. But for a determined action by the government and noise by the secular elements, this pattern would have continued with disastrous consequences.
Bangladesh agencies should not be complacent following Hasina’s overwhelming victory. The same forces , frustrated by the decisive rout, will try to regain lost ground by acts of terror. India should also hold Bangladesh’s hand in combating the menace through a collaborative counter intelligence measure so that the anti-Bangladesh and anti-India forces are denied breathing space . Internally again , terror outfits like Harkatul Ansar, Jamaitul Mujahdeen Bangladesh , Hijbut Tahrir, etc should be under the scanner 24/7 to avoid any act of misadventure . Technology should be used to the optimum to foil any attempt by Pakistani ISI to cause any dent in Bangladesh’s secular fabric . The situation calls for abundant caution as evident from the recent interception of a telephonic conversation between a BNP leader and an undercover ISI operative.
Politics in Bangladesh impacts politics in parts of India, especially West Bengal, Tripura and insurgent-hit areas of Assam. Will insurgency increase or decrease?
Ans: India’s North East has always been vulnerable to attacks in the states of Assam , Tripura , Manipur etc. Assam was most affected as the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) enjoyed a safe haven in Bangladesh with state support. It received training there and ULFA chairman Paresh Barua remained in various parts of Bangladesh and moved as freely as a Bangladeshi citizen. Indian agencies gave pin-pointed intelligence on Paresh Barua’s whereabouts but Dhaka refused to acknowledge his presence or act against him. Fortunately, in Hasina’s second stint, Paresh and his accomplices were all evicted and the north east insurgents including Manipuri and Tripura insurgent groups are on the run. Today there are no insurgents on Bangladeshi soil.
However, some disturbing trends have been noticed. ULFA has again flexed its muscles and killed a number of Bengalis in parts of Assam. It would seem there is a resurgent ULFA. This would then seek support from its Bangladesh handlers to give them some space to operate. More than Bangladesh, it is India that should be alert to ULFA movements.
Similar vigil needs to be exercised in West Bengal too. Bangladesh has come to notice in the past for smuggling fake currency notes into West Bengal through the long porous borders to cripple the Indian economy. Some groups in Bangladesh had also sent terrorists as deep as inside Burdwan detonating bombs. An all-out alertness therefore is called for to safeguard the vulnerable borders.
Further, Bangladesh needs to be diplomatically kept in good humour on NRC. Mamata Banerji needs to be persuaded to accommodate Bangladesh concerns on water. With a huge mandate in her favour, Hasina may now step up the demand for Teesta water-sharing. It is a delicate issue meriting deft handling.
India's efforts to prospect gas and other resources in Bangladesh have made extensive headway and a pipeline is to be constructed starting this year. What are the other areas where there is going to be progress in business?
There is a huge potential between India and Bangladesh in the business sphere. Both the leaders jointly inaugurated (September 2018) a 130 km friendship oil pipeline. It will connect Siliguri ( West Bengal) in India to Parbatipur (Dinajpur in Bangladesh). The ~346 crores project is expected to be complete in 30 months with a capacity to produce oil amounting to one million metric tonnes per annum.
Another landmark area of mutual cooperation is dual gauge railway lines between Dhaka-Tungi-Joydebpur rail project essentially to improve connectivity and generate revenue. This apart, both the countries are in agreement in the field of nuclear cooperation and a constant endeavour to narrow down the trade deficit.