 "Europe may find itself relying on the success of Tsipras")
Europe spent months trying to crush Alexis Tsipras. But now that Greece's leftist prime minister has called a snap election and is seeking a mandate for the tough new bailout programme he negotiated with his country's creditors, Europe, oddly enough, may find itself invested in his success.
Greece never fails to surprise, and Tsipras's turbulent eight-month tenure has proved he is rarely predictable. But the man many European leaders once regarded as a populist wrecking ball is now presenting himself as a figure who can deliver pragmatism and stability - and carry out the sort of austerity programme he once inveighed angrily against.
"I'm sure that he has talked to European leaders, and they are OK with what he is doing now," said Harry Papasotiriou, a professor of international relations at Panteion University in Athens, adding that Tsipras was staking his political life on a bailout deal that includes the kind of taxes and pension cuts he once opposed. "He's taking ownership of it."
The latest twist by Tsipras was met with cautious optimism on Friday by some European commentators even as his surprise move again tossed Greece into political turmoil. On Friday, a faction of hard-line leftists split from Tsipras's Syriza party and formed a new party, vowing to resist austerity and possibly even lead Greece out of the eurozone.
At the same time, analysts cautioned that the new election, and the continuing political maneuverings in Athens, could further complicate and slow implementation of the 86 billion euro bailout programme, worth about $98 billion at Friday's exchange rate, signed by Tsipras in July. An initial progress review by creditors, scheduled for October, may be delayed, which would delay discussions between Greece and its lenders over possible restructuring of the country's crippling sovereign debt.
Some economists also warned that the uncertainty surrounding the elections, including the possibility that the proposed September 20 election could be pushed back, could revive the sort of public anxiety that earlier this year destabilised the broader economy and spurred a run on Greek banks.
"That element I find to be much more risky," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin. "It creates much more uncertainty."
Across Europe, some commentators and European officials framed Tsipras's election gambit as a positive step to improve the odds that the bailout deal will be given a public mandate. Annika Breidthardt, a European Commission spokeswoman, said the commission "respects the decision" by Tsipras to call the vote and "considers it important" that the bailout package has public support.
In a message on Twitter, Martin Selmayr, the chief of staff for Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, said "swift elections" could "broaden support" for the deal that Tsipras signed last month.
Some commentators described the Greek vote as a potentially important step for broader political stability and unity in Europe. Writing in Corriere della Sera, a leading Italian newspaper, Aldo Cazzullo called on European leaders to push for greater political integration and praised Tsipras for tossing off his populist trappings and presenting himself as a leader able "to undertake a long road to renewal which, for all its difficulties, has shown itself to be the only path possible."
In Germany, where disgust with Tsipras is palpable, newspapers quoted government sources as saying that Chancellor Angela Merkel hoped the election could produce a government capable of bringing stability to Greece. Stefan Kornelius, a columnist for Süddeutsche Zeitung, a Munich newspaper, described Tsipras as "a realist and a pragmatist" who was now more aligned with Merkel's agenda.
Yet mistrust for Tsipras is deep among German officials, and some lawmakers were suspicious that the Greek leader might use a new election to revoke the bailout programme he signed last month. "Tsipras must not be allowed to deviate from the path of reform with such a maneuver," Manfred Weber, the head of the center-right European People's Party, told the tabloid Bild.
Few analysts predicted that the deep rifts between Tsipras and other European leaders would be suddenly be resolved, especially in Germany. But many agreed that Tsipras was not likely to go anywhere, given his continued popularity, despite his policy reversals. If European leaders want to see Greece truly put economic structural reforms into effect, Tsipras may now have the best chance of getting anything done, some analysts say.
"What Europe is interested in is political stability in Greece," said Christian Odendahl, chief economist for the Center for European Reform in London. He said that while Europe was "not that invested" in a Tsipras election victory, dealing with him could be inevitable and his promise to carry out the bailout could be welcomed even by his erstwhile enemies.
In Athens, political analysts note that Tsipras, at the moment, has no political rival capable of challenging him and that his party, Syriza, is almost certain to finish first in the election, with the question being by what margin. Those who left Syriza on Friday morning to form the Popular Unity Party are 25 lawmakers led by a former energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis. But analysts are sceptical that their anti-euro message will resonate with voters.
Despite his policy reversals, Tsipras has retained his popularity by moving slowly to the political centre after waging a defiant, unsuccessful fight to win Greece a better deal.
Greece never fails to surprise, and Tsipras's turbulent eight-month tenure has proved he is rarely predictable. But the man many European leaders once regarded as a populist wrecking ball is now presenting himself as a figure who can deliver pragmatism and stability - and carry out the sort of austerity programme he once inveighed angrily against.
"I'm sure that he has talked to European leaders, and they are OK with what he is doing now," said Harry Papasotiriou, a professor of international relations at Panteion University in Athens, adding that Tsipras was staking his political life on a bailout deal that includes the kind of taxes and pension cuts he once opposed. "He's taking ownership of it."
The latest twist by Tsipras was met with cautious optimism on Friday by some European commentators even as his surprise move again tossed Greece into political turmoil. On Friday, a faction of hard-line leftists split from Tsipras's Syriza party and formed a new party, vowing to resist austerity and possibly even lead Greece out of the eurozone.
At the same time, analysts cautioned that the new election, and the continuing political maneuverings in Athens, could further complicate and slow implementation of the 86 billion euro bailout programme, worth about $98 billion at Friday's exchange rate, signed by Tsipras in July. An initial progress review by creditors, scheduled for October, may be delayed, which would delay discussions between Greece and its lenders over possible restructuring of the country's crippling sovereign debt.
Some economists also warned that the uncertainty surrounding the elections, including the possibility that the proposed September 20 election could be pushed back, could revive the sort of public anxiety that earlier this year destabilised the broader economy and spurred a run on Greek banks.
"That element I find to be much more risky," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute of Economic Research in Berlin. "It creates much more uncertainty."
Across Europe, some commentators and European officials framed Tsipras's election gambit as a positive step to improve the odds that the bailout deal will be given a public mandate. Annika Breidthardt, a European Commission spokeswoman, said the commission "respects the decision" by Tsipras to call the vote and "considers it important" that the bailout package has public support.
In a message on Twitter, Martin Selmayr, the chief of staff for Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, said "swift elections" could "broaden support" for the deal that Tsipras signed last month.
Some commentators described the Greek vote as a potentially important step for broader political stability and unity in Europe. Writing in Corriere della Sera, a leading Italian newspaper, Aldo Cazzullo called on European leaders to push for greater political integration and praised Tsipras for tossing off his populist trappings and presenting himself as a leader able "to undertake a long road to renewal which, for all its difficulties, has shown itself to be the only path possible."
In Germany, where disgust with Tsipras is palpable, newspapers quoted government sources as saying that Chancellor Angela Merkel hoped the election could produce a government capable of bringing stability to Greece. Stefan Kornelius, a columnist for Süddeutsche Zeitung, a Munich newspaper, described Tsipras as "a realist and a pragmatist" who was now more aligned with Merkel's agenda.
Yet mistrust for Tsipras is deep among German officials, and some lawmakers were suspicious that the Greek leader might use a new election to revoke the bailout programme he signed last month. "Tsipras must not be allowed to deviate from the path of reform with such a maneuver," Manfred Weber, the head of the center-right European People's Party, told the tabloid Bild.
Few analysts predicted that the deep rifts between Tsipras and other European leaders would be suddenly be resolved, especially in Germany. But many agreed that Tsipras was not likely to go anywhere, given his continued popularity, despite his policy reversals. If European leaders want to see Greece truly put economic structural reforms into effect, Tsipras may now have the best chance of getting anything done, some analysts say.
"What Europe is interested in is political stability in Greece," said Christian Odendahl, chief economist for the Center for European Reform in London. He said that while Europe was "not that invested" in a Tsipras election victory, dealing with him could be inevitable and his promise to carry out the bailout could be welcomed even by his erstwhile enemies.
In Athens, political analysts note that Tsipras, at the moment, has no political rival capable of challenging him and that his party, Syriza, is almost certain to finish first in the election, with the question being by what margin. Those who left Syriza on Friday morning to form the Popular Unity Party are 25 lawmakers led by a former energy minister, Panagiotis Lafazanis. But analysts are sceptical that their anti-euro message will resonate with voters.
Despite his policy reversals, Tsipras has retained his popularity by moving slowly to the political centre after waging a defiant, unsuccessful fight to win Greece a better deal.
©2015 The New York Times News Service