Five scenarios that polls indicate may emerge in the UK election results

PM Theresa May's majority in the House of Commons at the time was 10 - with 330 seats out of 650

Bs_logoTill 1615 IST; Compiled by BS Research Bureau
Till 1615 IST; Compiled by BS Research Bureau
Bloomberg
Last Updated : Jun 09 2017 | 1:58 AM IST
With polls narrowing, investors are bracing for a range of possible outcomes. PM Theresa May’s majority in the House of Commons at the time was 10 — with 330 seats out of 650. Success for May will be judged against that benchmark. Here are five scenarios:
 
100+ Conservative majority
 
This would count as mission accomplished. It would send a signal of stability, and drive sterling up. May can execute her version of Brexit.

Till 1615 IST; Compiled by BS Research Bureau
Till 1615 IST; Compiled by BS Research Bureau

 
50+ Conservative majority
 
This makes May vulnerable to a leadership challenge. But it's a workable majority so the pound could strengthen depending on how traders are perceiving the political risks. As for her Brexit plan, it would now be at the mercy of hard-line Euroskeptics
 
Less than 10 Conservative majority
 
May’s days in power would seem numbered and there would be a sell-off of the pound. She still needs the support of lawmakers who campaigned for Brexit, reducing the chance she can soothe the exit by making trade-offs with the EU.

Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg

 
No majority
 
This opens the door for a possible alliance of parties to get enough seats to replace the Conservative government.  For Brexit, it probably means forget about negotiations starting the week after next as the country’s political class becomes consumed by a domestic crisis. The chances of a softer Brexit might be magnified. It would also cause the pound to weaken.
 
Labour majority

 
This would be a shocker that could radically change the direction of Brexit. Corbyn has said he accepts the outcome of the referendum although at times he has avoided being so explicit. In the immediate short-term, talks might be pushed back. After a period of uncertainty, markets might eventually rally at the prospect of a government that wants to retain the benefits of the single market.
 

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