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Global markets rattled by liquidation talk, Fed minutes

Risk assets extend losses on Thursday, MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan tumbles 1.3%

Reuters Tokyo
Last Updated : Feb 21 2013 | 9:30 AM IST
Risk assets broadly extended losses on Thursday as sentiment was rattled by overnight market talk that a hedge fund had been liquidating large positions in commodities, as well as worries the Federal Reserve could slow its bond buying programme.

The dollar hovered near a three-month high against a basket of major currencies while spot gold hit a seven-month low of $1,554.49, having lost 3% the day before for its biggest daily drop in almost a year.

London copper fell to its lowest in nearly two months at $7,900 a tonne while crude oil fell after posting its biggest daily fall so far this year on Wednesday.

Traders said the selling in broad markets, spurred by the rumours that a hedge fund was forced to liquidate substantial commodity positions, coincided with the release of the minutes from the Fed's January 29-30 meeting. The minutes showed policymakers discussed the slowing or stopping of Fed bond purchases aimed at reducing unemployment.

"We all heard the hedge fund rumour and price action appeared to back such a rumour, but nobody has seen hard news," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

"The price action also happened at the same time as the Fed's minutes which suggested the risk of an exit (from quantitative easing), so it's natural that money which had fled the dollar was returning, such as from gold. I think the fallout from the Fed's minutes will continue this session, prompting some money to head towards the dollar," Saito said.

The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan tumbled 1.3%, dragged down by a 2.5% slump in its materials sector and a 2% slide in the energy sector.

The pan-Asian index reached its highest levels since August 2011 on Wednesday.

Resources-reliant Australian shares shed 1.5%, hit by weakness in the mining sector. The Australian stock market struck a 4-1/2-year high on Wednesday.

The Australian dollar was down 0.2% to $1.0240 after sliding 1% on Wednesday for its sharpest one-day drop in more than four months.

Hong Kong shares slid 1.6% with property stocks leading the fall, following Beijing's latest move to curb frothy real estate markets.

But equities in the Philippines and Indonesia bucked the trend to rise on a relatively bright growth outlook.

Tokyo's Nikkei stock average fell 0.8%, after closing on Wednesday at its highest since late September 2008.

Equities have been rallying since late last year after excessive pessimism over the euro zone debt crisis and US fiscal tussle receded while positive growth signs emerged globally, from China and from debt-battered Europe, boosting investor sentiment.

The benchmark Standard & Poor's Index scaled its highest in more than five years earlier this week, while MSCI's all-country world equity index rose to its highest level since June 2008 on Wednesday, before retreating to trade down 0.7% after the Fed's minutes.

The minutes showed some Fed officials mulled tapering or ending the Fed's bond purchases before it saw a substantial improvement in the labour market.

The Fed's bond buying has played a significant role in calming markets and bolstering risk appetite by ensuring the central bank will keep its ultra-accommodative stance until growth is solid.

Some analysts saw the markets were ripe for taking profits after recent strong performances.

"It is not that the Fed decided to end its 'quantitative easing', but that there was a debate over the policy. But this served as an excuse for US investors to take profits after recent Wall Street rallies," said Cho Byeong-hyun, an analyst at Tong Yang Securities.

Signs of normalisation?

Traders said poor performance in commodities, which lagged other asset classes in 2012 and had seen its peak in 2008 before the financial crisis, probably made investors wary of talk of a fund liquidating positions ahead of earnings for the last quarter, which could be weak.

The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a bellwether for commodity prices, fell 3.4% last year, extending an 8% rout from the previous year. This year so far, the CRB is up 0.5%.

The CBOE Volatility Index, which gauges investor risk appetite on Wall Street, rose 19% to 14.68 in the biggest jump this year. The S&P has risen 6% this year.

"Markets are normalising in the sense that price action and news are positively correlated, meaning if you think logically, you will be rewarded," said Goro Ohwada, president and CEO at Japan-based fund of hedge funds Aino Investment Corp.

"Previously, no action was the best reaction because markets often priced-in events or news well ahead of time and reacted in opposite direction after the fact. People are now feeling they should be proactive and that means more price swings, which is good for investors," he said.

The dollar rose 0.1% to 93.66 yen while the euro traded at $1.3273, hovering near its lowest since January 23.

US crude fell 0.6% to $94.62 a barrel while Brent fell 0.4% to $115.14.

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First Published: Feb 21 2013 | 8:58 AM IST

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